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[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Glass, and Soda Ash Trading with a Slight Weakness] ⑴ Crude Oil: High-level fluctuations. Shortly after the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran, Israel attacked Lebanon, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a map of safe passage routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump stated that US troops remain stationed in Iran, threatening "fire" if violations are violated. The US-Iran negotiations, originally scheduled to begin on April 10 in Islamabad, face uncertainty. The short-term geopolitical game has shifted from "war" to "diplomacy," causing significant market fluctuations. Short-term high-level fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector are expected. ⑵ Fuel Oil: High-level weakness with a slight fluctuation. During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with imports from Iran accounting for 20% of domestic imports. Shortly after the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran, Iran restricted passage through the Strait, Israel attacked Lebanon, and Trump issued military threats. Geopolitical sentiment has shifted significantly, and short-term high-level fluctuations are expected. ⑶ Glass: Slightly weak. Market sentiment was weak, with companies primarily focused on digesting inventory. Daily industry output has slightly rebounded to 145,500 tons. Weekly inventory increased by 2.29% week-on-week and 15.54% year-on-year. Overall, orders for deep-processing plants remain weak, and the increase in order days is limited. Low supply and rising energy costs provide some support for prices, but weak demand expectations suggest prices will fluctuate widely without significant drivers. (4) Soda Ash: Weak. The domestic soda ash market was stable today, with moderate trading activity. Soda ash plant operations saw narrow fluctuations, with some reducing production, leading to a downward trend in supply. Weekly total soda ash inventory was 1.874 million tons, down 12,100 tons from last Thursday, while social inventory remained above 350,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. Futures-spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 05-20, Shahe 05+20, Hubei warehouse delivery 05+30, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 05-280. Overall, the medium-term supply is expected to be ample, with a weak and volatile outlook. (5) Caustic soda: Slightly weak fluctuations. Today, the price of low-degree caustic soda in Shandong was generally stable, with some companies experiencing price corrections due to warehouse receipts, and some high-priced companies slowing down shipments, leading to price declines. (6) Methanol: High-level fluctuations. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3365, up 10, and the price in the northern part of Inner Mongolia was 2607.5, up 22.5. The near-term basis of the methanol market in Taicang, Jiangsu remained stable, while the far-term basis strengthened, indicating active demand for swaps. This week, the sample inventory of methanol at ports decreased by 0.85 million tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.82% week-on-week, which was lower than expected. The shrinking demand for olefins also became a factor suppressing inventory reduction, and the weakening demand limited the upside potential. However, the situation in Iran has not eased, and imports continue to shrink. In addition, there is uncertainty in the US-Iran negotiations, and the market logic has changed drastically. However, the main contract saw a significant reduction in open interest, and short-term fluctuations are expected.