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[US Initial Jobless Claims Rise Moderately, But Employment Stagnation Remains a Double-Edged Sword] ⑴ Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 16,000 to 219,000, slightly higher than the 210,000 expected by surveys, but still at historically low levels. ⑵ The low layoff rate continues to provide a floor for the labor market. So far, there are no signs that employers have initiated layoffs due to the oil price shock caused by the US-Israel war with Iran, and the resilience of the job market exceeds previous market concerns. ⑶ Although non-farm payrolls rebounded by 178,000 in March, the median duration of unemployment climbed to 11.4 weeks, the longest in nearly four and a half years, and the labor market is deeply mired in what economists call a stalemate of low hiring and low layoffs. ⑷ Uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric and large-scale deportation policies is considered the core trigger for this round of hiring freezes. Companies tend to freeze new jobs rather than lay off existing employees before the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer. (5) The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by 38,000 to 1.794 million in the week ending March 28. However, this decline in continuing claims was partly due to unemployed individuals exiting the statistical scope after exhausting the 26-week claim period, rather than an actual improvement in the employment situation. (6) Young adults lacking work experience were most severely impacted by the labor market downturn, as they typically do not qualify for unemployment benefits. The actual extent of unemployment may be systematically underestimated by official data. (7) The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that more and more policymakers believed that interest rate hikes might be necessary to combat inflation. The modest rebound in initial jobless claims is not enough to change the wait-and-see attitude of policymakers. However, if the low employment situation continues to erode residents' income expectations, the foundation of consumer resilience will face the risk of gradual erosion.