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[IMF Warns of Post-War Consequences: Funding Gap Could Surge to $50 Billion, Global Growth Baseline Systematically Downgraded] ⑴ IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the institution expects demand for financial support to climb to between $20 billion and $50 billion in the near term due to the spillover effects of the Middle East war. ⑵ She pointed out that the conflict, though now suspended, has led to a 13% reduction in global daily oil production and a 20% reduction in daily liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, resulting in a supply shock that has driven up energy prices and continues to disrupt supply chains. ⑶ Georgieva confirmed that the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast, stating that even in the most optimistic scenario, infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, loss of confidence, and other scarring effects will lead to a systemic downgrade of growth ratings. ⑷ The Ras Lafan LNG complex in Qatar, which handles 93% of the Gulf region's LNG production capacity, has been shut down since March 2nd and is expected to take three to five years to restore full capacity. (5) Another 45 million people will face food insecurity, bringing the global hunger population to over 360 million. Supply chain disruptions to industries reliant on inputs such as sulfur, helium for chip manufacturing, and naphtha for plastics will also persist. (6) Georgieva called on countries to abandon unilateral actions and avoid implementing export controls and price controls that could further disrupt the global order. She warned that central banks should decisively raise interest rates if inflation expectations face the risk of decoupling. (7) She cautioned that current deficit spending will increase the burden on monetary policy and amplify upward pressure on the benchmark yield curve, further pushing up debt costs. Global public debt is projected to climb to approximately 100% of GDP by 2029, the highest level since 1948. (8) Analysts believe that the IMF's forecast of the funding gap reflects the vulnerability of emerging markets and developing economies under the dual pressure of soaring energy import costs and tightening financing conditions. The coordinated policy statements from finance officials during next week's spring meetings will be a key window into whether the global financial stability network can operate effectively.