The White House issued an urgent warning to its staff: Do not bet on prediction markets during the war with Iran.
2026-04-10 13:25:35
On March 23, US President Trump suddenly announced a suspension of military strikes against Iran. The following day, the White House quickly issued a warning to all staff members, requiring them not to use their positions to make precise bets in the futures or forecasting markets.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the warning email was sent to all staff by the White House Office of Management on March 24. This sudden policy shift occurred approximately 15 minutes after an unusually large number of trades in the futures market.
According to market data, oil futures contracts worth over $760 million were traded in less than two minutes. Furthermore, three accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket accurately predicted the timing of the Iranian ceasefire this week, profiting over $600,000. Critics, including many Democrats, immediately speculated that someone may have had advance information about the policy shift and profited from it.
The White House has confirmed the authenticity of the warning email. Trump's spokesperson, Davis Ingle, stated, "The only special interest that will always guide President Trump is the greatest interest of the American people."
There is currently no evidence of a leak of government information, nor any evidence that anyone has used insider information to make accurate bets. However, with the rise of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, federal employees and political figures are facing a new temptation. These markets allow users to bet on various outcomes, including sporting events and major world events, and to cash out their winnings anonymously.
U.S. ethical standards explicitly prohibit employees of government agencies from engaging in gambling activities on federal premises, and related regulations strictly prohibit the use of non-public information held by the government for personal gain. A senior government official who received the email stated that the warning email was a timely reminder, given the public's growing concern over suspiciously large bets in the futures market.
Ingle added, “President Trump’s position has always been very clear: he wants a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, but members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using non-public information for economic gain.” He emphasized that banning insider trading is nothing unusual. He dismissed any suggestion that someone within the government was abusing their power for personal gain as “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
These unusually profitable bets not only attracted widespread attention but also sparked strong discontent among the public, even among the president's supporters.
"This is disgusting," said Tom Ellsworth, a veteran investor and co-host of the pro-Trump podcast "PBD Podcast," in a recording on March 25. He speculated that there must be a "small circle" within the government that knew in advance "what the president was going to say" and acted on that information. He concluded, "The timing of this is just too suspicious."
Congressional Democrats argue that existing federal regulations are inadequate to address such risks in the current environment of anonymous trading and constantly changing rules. Senator Richard Blumenthal stated in a press release last month that prediction markets "are turning war into a casino game and creating conditions for the leakage of national security information."
The Democratic senator from Connecticut, along with New Jersey Democratic Senator Andy Kim, introduced a bill aimed at a blanket ban on prediction market trading related to war or military operations. Kim stated, "Corruption and exploitation are taking advantage of the gaps and loopholes in prediction markets."
In January of this year, less than five hours before the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, an unidentified trader significantly increased his bets on his impending downfall, netting over $400,000 on the Polymarket platform. In February, Israel arrested several people, including military reservists, on charges of using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.
The White House's warning regarding betting activities in prediction markets during the Iran war reflects how governments should address potential conflicts of interest and information leakage risks amid the rapid development of anonymous prediction markets driven by cryptocurrencies. While there is currently no direct evidence pointing to government insiders, the timing and scale of these unusual transactions have sparked strong public scrutiny and political controversy.
Whether Congress will pass stricter legislation to regulate such markets in the future will be a focus of attention. This incident also serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining information fairness and government credibility during periods of significant policy adjustment.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the warning email was sent to all staff by the White House Office of Management on March 24. This sudden policy shift occurred approximately 15 minutes after an unusually large number of trades in the futures market.
According to market data, oil futures contracts worth over $760 million were traded in less than two minutes. Furthermore, three accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket accurately predicted the timing of the Iranian ceasefire this week, profiting over $600,000. Critics, including many Democrats, immediately speculated that someone may have had advance information about the policy shift and profited from it.
The White House confirms the authenticity of the warning email and responds to questions.
The White House has confirmed the authenticity of the warning email. Trump's spokesperson, Davis Ingle, stated, "The only special interest that will always guide President Trump is the greatest interest of the American people."
There is currently no evidence of a leak of government information, nor any evidence that anyone has used insider information to make accurate bets. However, with the rise of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, federal employees and political figures are facing a new temptation. These markets allow users to bet on various outcomes, including sporting events and major world events, and to cash out their winnings anonymously.
U.S. ethical standards explicitly prohibit employees of government agencies from engaging in gambling activities on federal premises, and related regulations strictly prohibit the use of non-public information held by the government for personal gain. A senior government official who received the email stated that the warning email was a timely reminder, given the public's growing concern over suspiciously large bets in the futures market.
Ingle added, “President Trump’s position has always been very clear: he wants a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, but members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using non-public information for economic gain.” He emphasized that banning insider trading is nothing unusual. He dismissed any suggestion that someone within the government was abusing their power for personal gain as “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Unusual betting sparks public outrage
These unusually profitable bets not only attracted widespread attention but also sparked strong discontent among the public, even among the president's supporters.
"This is disgusting," said Tom Ellsworth, a veteran investor and co-host of the pro-Trump podcast "PBD Podcast," in a recording on March 25. He speculated that there must be a "small circle" within the government that knew in advance "what the president was going to say" and acted on that information. He concluded, "The timing of this is just too suspicious."
Democratic lawmakers call for stronger regulation
Congressional Democrats argue that existing federal regulations are inadequate to address such risks in the current environment of anonymous trading and constantly changing rules. Senator Richard Blumenthal stated in a press release last month that prediction markets "are turning war into a casino game and creating conditions for the leakage of national security information."
The Democratic senator from Connecticut, along with New Jersey Democratic Senator Andy Kim, introduced a bill aimed at a blanket ban on prediction market trading related to war or military operations. Kim stated, "Corruption and exploitation are taking advantage of the gaps and loopholes in prediction markets."
Frequent similar incidents raise concerns
In January of this year, less than five hours before the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, an unidentified trader significantly increased his bets on his impending downfall, netting over $400,000 on the Polymarket platform. In February, Israel arrested several people, including military reservists, on charges of using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.
Conclusion: The clash between prediction markets and national information security
The White House's warning regarding betting activities in prediction markets during the Iran war reflects how governments should address potential conflicts of interest and information leakage risks amid the rapid development of anonymous prediction markets driven by cryptocurrencies. While there is currently no direct evidence pointing to government insiders, the timing and scale of these unusual transactions have sparked strong public scrutiny and political controversy.
Whether Congress will pass stricter legislation to regulate such markets in the future will be a focus of attention. This incident also serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining information fairness and government credibility during periods of significant policy adjustment.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
