The US dollar rebounded slightly, and the USD/CNY pair tested a key resistance zone again today.
2026-04-10 15:29:22
On Friday during the Asian session, USD/JPY continued its rebound, rising to around 159.15. Currently, the US dollar remains strong, supported by safe-haven demand, while the Japanese yen is under relative pressure due to policy uncertainty and energy factors.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions in the Middle East continue to be a core driver of the market. Although the US and Iran reached a short-term ceasefire agreement, its implementation remains highly uncertain. The US has demanded that Iran restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening further military action otherwise. This statement has exacerbated market concerns about escalating conflict, driving safe-haven flows into US dollar assets.
Meanwhile, the restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have had a significant impact on the global energy market. Market estimates suggest that this passage handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport ; its instability directly drives up energy prices and strengthens inflation expectations, thereby supporting the performance of the US dollar.
Furthermore, further negotiations between the US and Iran are scheduled to begin over the weekend, but significant differences remain between the two sides on ceasefire conditions, particularly regarding the scope of the regional conflict. This has kept market risk appetite cautious, providing continued support for the US dollar.
In Japan, the government plans to release approximately 20 days' worth of strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate energy supply pressures. This move reflects the impact of rising energy prices on the Japanese economy and also weakens the fundamental support for the yen to some extent.
However, expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's policy are potentially supportive of the yen. The market anticipates a 70% probability of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan's April meeting. If this policy shift materializes, it will support the yen and thus exert some downward pressure on USD/JPY.
On the macro level, the market is focused on the upcoming US March CPI data. Inflation is expected to rebound due to rising energy prices, with the market anticipating a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 3.3% . If the data exceeds expectations, it will further reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance of maintaining high interest rates, thereby pushing the dollar higher; conversely, it may trigger a dollar pullback.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that USD/JPY maintains a strong upward trend. The exchange rate continues to trade within an ascending channel and is currently approaching the psychological level of 160, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant. The 158.00 area forms short-term support; a break below this level could trigger a technical pullback. The 160.00 level is a key psychological resistance level; a break above this level could open up further upside potential. Momentum indicators show that the RSI is at a high level but has not yet shown significant divergence, and the MACD remains above the zero line, indicating that the trend remains bullish.
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY is exhibiting an upward-trending structure. The price is moving along the short-term uptrend line, and the moving average system remains in a bullish alignment. The RSI remains around 60, indicating bullish dominance; the MACD continues in positive territory, showing stable momentum. In the short term, if the exchange rate holds above 159, it is expected to continue testing the 160 level; if a pullback occurs, the 158.50–158.00 area will provide support.
Editor's Summary : The current USD/JPY exchange rate movement is driven by both the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar and divergent policy expectations. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation supports the US dollar, while expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan provide support for the yen, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In the short term, US CPI data will be a key variable, determining the strength of the US dollar and the direction of the exchange rate. Without significant changes in fundamentals, USD/JPY is likely to maintain a high-level, slightly bullish trend.
From a geopolitical perspective, tensions in the Middle East continue to be a core driver of the market. Although the US and Iran reached a short-term ceasefire agreement, its implementation remains highly uncertain. The US has demanded that Iran restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening further military action otherwise. This statement has exacerbated market concerns about escalating conflict, driving safe-haven flows into US dollar assets.
Meanwhile, the restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have had a significant impact on the global energy market. Market estimates suggest that this passage handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport ; its instability directly drives up energy prices and strengthens inflation expectations, thereby supporting the performance of the US dollar.
Furthermore, further negotiations between the US and Iran are scheduled to begin over the weekend, but significant differences remain between the two sides on ceasefire conditions, particularly regarding the scope of the regional conflict. This has kept market risk appetite cautious, providing continued support for the US dollar.
In Japan, the government plans to release approximately 20 days' worth of strategic petroleum reserves to alleviate energy supply pressures. This move reflects the impact of rising energy prices on the Japanese economy and also weakens the fundamental support for the yen to some extent.
However, expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's policy are potentially supportive of the yen. The market anticipates a 70% probability of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan's April meeting. If this policy shift materializes, it will support the yen and thus exert some downward pressure on USD/JPY.
On the macro level, the market is focused on the upcoming US March CPI data. Inflation is expected to rebound due to rising energy prices, with the market anticipating a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 3.3% . If the data exceeds expectations, it will further reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance of maintaining high interest rates, thereby pushing the dollar higher; conversely, it may trigger a dollar pullback.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that USD/JPY maintains a strong upward trend. The exchange rate continues to trade within an ascending channel and is currently approaching the psychological level of 160, indicating that bullish momentum remains dominant. The 158.00 area forms short-term support; a break below this level could trigger a technical pullback. The 160.00 level is a key psychological resistance level; a break above this level could open up further upside potential. Momentum indicators show that the RSI is at a high level but has not yet shown significant divergence, and the MACD remains above the zero line, indicating that the trend remains bullish.
On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY is exhibiting an upward-trending structure. The price is moving along the short-term uptrend line, and the moving average system remains in a bullish alignment. The RSI remains around 60, indicating bullish dominance; the MACD continues in positive territory, showing stable momentum. In the short term, if the exchange rate holds above 159, it is expected to continue testing the 160 level; if a pullback occurs, the 158.50–158.00 area will provide support.
Editor's Summary : The current USD/JPY exchange rate movement is driven by both the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar and divergent policy expectations. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation supports the US dollar, while expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan provide support for the yen, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In the short term, US CPI data will be a key variable, determining the strength of the US dollar and the direction of the exchange rate. Without significant changes in fundamentals, USD/JPY is likely to maintain a high-level, slightly bullish trend.
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