Escalating tensions in the Middle East and soaring oil prices have fueled inflation expectations, causing the USD/JPY pair to remain volatile and face resistance at the 160 level.
2026-04-13 16:21:12
The USD/JPY pair opened higher, continuing its previous rebound, but momentum slowed before reaching a key psychological level, remaining below 160 in the European session. Despite the lack of further upward volume, the overall trend remains bullish.
From a fundamental perspective, the situation in the Middle East has once again become the core driver of the market. The negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to achieve a breakthrough, with high-level consultations lasting approximately 21 hours ending in a stalemate, rapidly cooling market expectations for a de-escalation of the conflict. At the same time, the United States announced measures to block the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with ongoing military activity in the region, significantly increasing global energy supply risks.
Against this backdrop, crude oil prices surged, further reinforcing market expectations of rising inflation. The rise in energy prices not only pushed up global inflation expectations but also increased economic uncertainty in various countries. This impact was particularly pronounced for Japan. As an economy highly dependent on energy imports, Japan faced greater pressure in a rising oil price environment, leading to continued downward pressure on the yen.
Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose, reflecting market concerns about imported inflationary pressures. This yield change, driven by external shocks, failed to effectively boost the yen; instead, it highlighted economic fragility and further weakened its currency's attractiveness.
The US dollar benefited from multiple positive factors. First, increased geopolitical risks strengthened its safe-haven appeal. Second, rising oil prices fueled inflationary pressures, increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates or even adopt a hawkish stance. Third, rising US asset yields further attracted capital inflows. These multiple factors combined to support the dollar's performance, thus driving the USD/JPY exchange rate to maintain its upward trend.
However, as the exchange rate approached the key level of 160 , market expectations for intervention by Japanese authorities significantly increased. Historical experience shows that this area is a policy-sensitive zone; if the exchange rate continues to rise, the government may intervene verbally or in practice to stabilize the exchange rate. This expectation clearly dampened the willingness of bullish investors to further increase their positions, slowing the pace of the exchange rate's rise.
From a market sentiment perspective, the current situation presents a typical pattern of "positive fundamentals but increasing policy constraints." On the one hand, the bulls are supported by a strong US dollar and a weak Japanese yen; on the other hand, the risk of intervention limits the upside potential, causing the exchange rate to fluctuate in a high-level range.
Investors are currently focusing on several key variables, including whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further, whether oil prices will remain high, and whether Japanese authorities will send clearer signals of intervention. These factors will directly influence whether the exchange rate can break through the 160 mark.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that USD/JPY maintains its upward trend, rebounding after finding support around 158.20 , confirming this area as a key support zone. The current price remains above the major moving average system, indicating that the medium-term trend remains intact. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD continues to diverge upwards, and the RSI remains in the mid-to-high range, showing that upward momentum still exists, but it is approaching a key resistance area.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the exchange rate is showing a short-term upward trend with fluctuations, but it has been repeatedly resisted near the 160 level , indicating significant selling pressure in that area. If the price can effectively break through and hold above this level, it may further test 161.50 or even higher; conversely, if it continues to be resisted, it may retreat to the support areas of 158.60 and 158.20 for consolidation. Overall, the short-term trend is slightly bullish, but the characteristics of high-level fluctuations are obvious.
Editor's Summary : Overall, the USD/JPY pair remains in an upward trend, primarily benefiting from a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and a weak yen fundamental. However, as the exchange rate approaches the key 160 level, expectations of Japanese intervention have significantly increased, clearly limiting further upside potential. Future movements will depend on the interplay between fundamental and policy factors. If geopolitical risks persist and keep oil prices high, the exchange rate still has room to rise; however, strengthening warning signs or a shift in market sentiment could increase the risk of a short-term pullback. In general, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern in the short term, with bulls and bears fiercely battling around key levels.
From a fundamental perspective, the situation in the Middle East has once again become the core driver of the market. The negotiations between the United States and Iran failed to achieve a breakthrough, with high-level consultations lasting approximately 21 hours ending in a stalemate, rapidly cooling market expectations for a de-escalation of the conflict. At the same time, the United States announced measures to block the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with ongoing military activity in the region, significantly increasing global energy supply risks.
Against this backdrop, crude oil prices surged, further reinforcing market expectations of rising inflation. The rise in energy prices not only pushed up global inflation expectations but also increased economic uncertainty in various countries. This impact was particularly pronounced for Japan. As an economy highly dependent on energy imports, Japan faced greater pressure in a rising oil price environment, leading to continued downward pressure on the yen.
Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields rose, reflecting market concerns about imported inflationary pressures. This yield change, driven by external shocks, failed to effectively boost the yen; instead, it highlighted economic fragility and further weakened its currency's attractiveness.
The US dollar benefited from multiple positive factors. First, increased geopolitical risks strengthened its safe-haven appeal. Second, rising oil prices fueled inflationary pressures, increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates or even adopt a hawkish stance. Third, rising US asset yields further attracted capital inflows. These multiple factors combined to support the dollar's performance, thus driving the USD/JPY exchange rate to maintain its upward trend.
However, as the exchange rate approached the key level of 160 , market expectations for intervention by Japanese authorities significantly increased. Historical experience shows that this area is a policy-sensitive zone; if the exchange rate continues to rise, the government may intervene verbally or in practice to stabilize the exchange rate. This expectation clearly dampened the willingness of bullish investors to further increase their positions, slowing the pace of the exchange rate's rise.
From a market sentiment perspective, the current situation presents a typical pattern of "positive fundamentals but increasing policy constraints." On the one hand, the bulls are supported by a strong US dollar and a weak Japanese yen; on the other hand, the risk of intervention limits the upside potential, causing the exchange rate to fluctuate in a high-level range.
Investors are currently focusing on several key variables, including whether the situation in the Middle East will escalate further, whether oil prices will remain high, and whether Japanese authorities will send clearer signals of intervention. These factors will directly influence whether the exchange rate can break through the 160 mark.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that USD/JPY maintains its upward trend, rebounding after finding support around 158.20 , confirming this area as a key support zone. The current price remains above the major moving average system, indicating that the medium-term trend remains intact. In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD continues to diverge upwards, and the RSI remains in the mid-to-high range, showing that upward momentum still exists, but it is approaching a key resistance area.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the exchange rate is showing a short-term upward trend with fluctuations, but it has been repeatedly resisted near the 160 level , indicating significant selling pressure in that area. If the price can effectively break through and hold above this level, it may further test 161.50 or even higher; conversely, if it continues to be resisted, it may retreat to the support areas of 158.60 and 158.20 for consolidation. Overall, the short-term trend is slightly bullish, but the characteristics of high-level fluctuations are obvious.
Editor's Summary : Overall, the USD/JPY pair remains in an upward trend, primarily benefiting from a strong dollar, rising oil prices, and a weak yen fundamental. However, as the exchange rate approaches the key 160 level, expectations of Japanese intervention have significantly increased, clearly limiting further upside potential. Future movements will depend on the interplay between fundamental and policy factors. If geopolitical risks persist and keep oil prices high, the exchange rate still has room to rise; however, strengthening warning signs or a shift in market sentiment could increase the risk of a short-term pullback. In general, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern in the short term, with bulls and bears fiercely battling around key levels.
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