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2026-04-14 09:17:31
[Trump's Unpredictable Iran Policy Causes Rollercoaster Market Volatility] 1. During the Iran war, Trump repeatedly triggered sharp market fluctuations. He first announced a ceasefire, then a few days later announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The constantly changing conditions of his ultimatums to Iran caused dramatic fluctuations in oil prices and affected other markets. The stock prices of oil producers and energy-intensive industrial companies moved in opposite directions. 2. The market experienced particularly severe volatility in the three days from March 7th to 9th. Trump successively announced that Iran would no longer attack its neighbors, that the US was considering "completely destroying" Iran, and that the US might control the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Gulf states cut oil production, benefiting US oil and gas producers. 3. Market correlations constantly shifted. Initially, US Treasury yields and oil prices soared together as investors worried that rising inflation would make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. As the war progressed, this correlation broke down. But recently, after Trump announced a ceasefire, both yields and oil prices fell, and the correlation was restored. 4. Trump's toned-down rhetoric triggered a stock market rally, but the increase was not as significant as during last year's tariff controversy. Investors say it's unwise to over-bet after any single event, as a single social media post could reverse the situation. The effect is diminishing, but the market remains highly sensitive.
