With the constitutionally mandated nomination deadline of April 26 fast approaching, the coalition is accelerating the selection process. This political game, which concerns the future of the country, has been deeply involved and closely monitored by the two major external forces, the United States and Iran, from the very beginning. Iraq's sovereignty and people's livelihood development are caught in a dilemma due to the dual tug-of-war.

The confrontational forces that the US and Iran have committed to this election may be the key to determining whether they are in an active or passive position in the main geopolitical battleground.

Intense Internal Struggle: The Power Struggle Between Sudani and Maliki

The struggle for prime ministership within the coordination framework has reached a fever pitch.

Caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Soudani, seeking re-election, is engaged in a fierce contest with the faction led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Maliki, a veteran figure in Iraqi politics, has always been regarded as a pro-Iranian politician . His candidacy was met with clear resistance from the United States from the very beginning. The US views him as Iran's core proxy in Iraq and is concerned that his return to politics would completely undermine the US's strategic plan to weaken Iran's regional influence.

Maliki's camp has remained steadfast in its commitment to qualifying for the election, with its office even publicly declaring that "the coalition's officially announced prime ministerial candidate has not changed," emphasizing Iraq's sovereign right to independently select its head of government.

According to Kurdistan 24 News, Maliki angrily rejected the proposal to withdraw from the election and refused to attend recent coalition meetings, causing key agenda items to be postponed multiple times.

The US and Iran exert pressure on each other: the intervention and game of external forces.

In an effort to break the deadlock in forming a government, both Iran and the United States have increased their intervention efforts, creating a stark confrontation.

On the Iranian side, Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, secretly visited Baghdad over the weekend at the invitation of Sodani. He met with Maliki, Sodani, and other key leaders of the coordination framework. His core demand was to lobby the coalition to abandon its nomination of pro-Maliki Bassem Badri as prime minister.

According to Akil Abbas, a researcher based in Washington, Iran is facing a survival challenge in the confrontation between the US and Israel. Its core intention is not to finalize a specific candidate, but to support a "weak prime minister" in order to more smoothly achieve its geopolitical goals.

In contrast, the United States' intervention was more direct and forceful. In addition to publicly boycotting Maliki, the US exerted pressure through diplomatic channels. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barak told Maliki that if he withdrew from the election, the US would recognize any replacement he designated.

Meanwhile, the US holds multiple bargaining chips: the presidential executive order issued during the Bush administration that provided legal protection for Iraq's oil revenues will expire in May. If Trump refuses to renew it, Iraq's assets held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York may be frozen, directly impacting civil servants' salaries and the country's economic operations.

On April 17, the U.S. Treasury Department broke with convention by directly sanctioning seven pro-Iranian militia commanders, sending a clear signal of continued suppression of pro-Iranian forces.

A compromise has emerged: Badri is the preferred choice internally, but uncertainties remain.

With the US and Iran locked in a protracted struggle, the coordination framework is gradually shifting towards a compromise.

Bassem Badri, the chairman of the Accountability and Justice Committee mentioned earlier, has gradually become the preferred candidate within the coalition due to his lack of a strong independent party base and his perfect alignment with the coalition's requirement that "the prime minister must report all matters to the coordination framework."

Badri has already secured the support of 7 out of 12 coalition leaders and only needs one more vote to meet the two-thirds majority requirement for formal nomination.

However, it remains to be seen whether Qani's trip to Baghdad will change this situation, and the US attitude toward Badri is still unclear, adding more uncertainty to the final selection.

It is worth noting that Sudani's camp has publicly denied the rumors of a "candidate finalization," stating that the relevant information is "full of false information."

Diplomatic balance is difficult to maintain: Sovereign space is squeezed, and people's livelihoods and economy are in trouble.

While mired in a deadlock over forming a government, Iraq is struggling to balance its relations with the United States and with Iraq.

The standoff between the US and Israel has spilled over into Iraq, with pro-Iranian militants frequently attacking US assets in Iraq, significantly reducing Baghdad's diplomatic maneuvering space.

Caretaker Prime Minister Soudanin attempted a balancing act: on the one hand, he signed an agreement with Chevron of the United States to authorize it to operate three major oil fields, and on the other hand, he tacitly allowed pro-Iranian armed groups to retaliate against the US military and seek refuge in Iraqi military facilities.

However, this strategy had little effect, prompting the U.S. State Department to summon the Iraqi ambassador for the first time since 2003 to lodge a formal protest, and Gulf countries such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia followed suit with protests.

Even more serious is the crisis affecting people's livelihoods and the economy.

Iraq is currently burdened with $69 billion in debt, with 90% of its finances dependent on oil revenues. However, due to the absence of a government that has been functioning normally for more than five months, many problems remain unresolved.

The new tariff policy in January this year pushed up the cost of imported goods, and the reinstatement of sales tax on mobile phone recharge cards in February further increased the burden on the public, even triggering strikes and protests by merchants across the country.

Critics have bluntly stated that while the coordination framework loudly proclaims sovereignty, it tacitly approves of and even actively invites the US and Iraq to interfere in the formation of a government. The so-called sovereignty has long been a mere formality, and Iraqi local forces have become vassals of external powers.

Key Monday Meeting: Can the Deadlock Be Broken? The Road Ahead Remains Long.

The coordination framework secretariat is currently scheduled to hold a special meeting on Monday, with the sole agenda item being the selection of a prime ministerial candidate. Previous three meetings on this topic were postponed due to significant disagreements, and it remains to be seen whether this meeting will break the deadlock.

Latest developments indicate that while there is some consensus within the alliance regarding Badri's nomination, factional infighting and external interference could still disrupt the process.

It is worth noting that Iraq recently elected a new president, Nizar al-Amidi. According to the sectarian power-sharing system, the prime minister must be nominated by the Shiite alliance, which makes this prime minister selection even more decisive.

However, current indications suggest that both the US and Iraq have exercised restraint in their interventions, and the upcoming Iraqi elections offer an important geopolitical perspective.

However, what is certain is that as long as the geopolitical struggle between the US and Iran in Iraq continues, even if a prime minister is chosen, Iraq's path to freeing itself from external interference and achieving independent governance remains long and arduous.