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[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil Fluctuates with a Bearish Bias, Soybean Meal Should Be Shorted on Rallies, Corn Should Be Remained on the Wait and See Sideways, Live Hogs Should Be Shorted on Rallies, Eggs Should Be Longed on Dips] ⑴ Palm Oil: With the second round of US-Iran negotiations about to begin, Brent crude oil fell 4%, retreating to $98 per barrel. Market opinions on crude oil pricing are diverging, and the energy and chemical industry has returned to a low-volatility pattern. Edible oils have also weakened, with palm oil, possessing the strongest energy attributes, experiencing the deepest correction, while rapeseed oil has seen the shallowest. At this point, fundamentals are in favor. Regarding Indonesia, the previously announced plan to implement B50 on July 1st has been withdrawn. The latest policy is a phased approach: first, strongly promoting B50 through subsidies (PSO); in 2027, the transition year, PSO will implement B50, and NPSO will implement B40; and in 2028, B50 will be fully implemented. However, the increased palm oil demand brought by B50 in 2026 is less than 1 million tons, having a limited effect on inventory reduction. Spot prices weakened, with 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong falling 180 yuan to 9370 yuan, grade 3 soybean oil falling 120 yuan to 8720 yuan, and genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rising 10 yuan to 9990 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: Soaring crude oil prices drove up vegetable oil prices, consequently increasing the cost of imported soybeans. Domestically, soybean imports gradually recovered after April. Based on shipping schedules, soybean arrivals in May are estimated at 11.5 million tons, and in June at 11 million tons, leading to a surge in supply pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended. ⑶ Corn: The relatively low inventory at northern ports is the main reason for the strong corn price, but policy grain releases, including wheat and rice, have a certain inhibitory effect on corn price increases. Demand is diverging. Feed demand weakened due to weaker prices for mainstream livestock products, resulting in low inventory levels at feed mills and farms. However, strong demand for corn processing remains high. Corn prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but the increase may be limited. A wait-and-see approach is recommended. (4) Live Pigs: Spot prices for live pigs continue to weaken, and are expected to continue declining tomorrow. The main reason is the continued release of short-term supply pressure, with previously accumulated large-weight pigs being released for slaughter, coupled with a high slaughter weight, resulting in ample supply in the market. Furthermore, current end-user demand is insufficient, leading to low efficiency and a supply-demand imbalance. Looking ahead, although the theoretical number of live pigs slaughtered in April and May will slightly decrease month-on-month due to signs of second-generation hens entering the market after the Lunar New Year, the current slaughter weight is high, and coupled with the expectation of second-generation hens entering the market, the price trend in April and May is not optimistic. It is recommended to sell on rallies. (5) Eggs: The egg market is currently in a transitional period dominated by rising feed costs and marginal easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, rising corn and soybean meal prices have directly increased the cost of raising laying hens, with feed costs per kilogram of eggs reaching approximately 3.5 yuan/kilogram. On the other hand, although the current number of laying hens in production remains high, the worst may have passed.