US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (April 14) that US-Iran talks could resume in Pakistan within the next two days. Officials from the Gulf region, Pakistan, and Iran also indicated that negotiating delegations from both sides might return to Pakistan later this week, although a senior Iranian source noted that a specific date has not yet been finalized.

Trump stated, "You really should stay there because there could be some action in the next two days, and we'd prefer to go there." This statement brought a glimmer of hope to the stalled ceasefire process.

Negotiation Prospects: Progress Made Through Informal Channels

The failure of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad last weekend to reach an agreement has raised questions about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement, which has only one week left to expire. Nevertheless, recent signs indicate that diplomatic contact has not completely stalled. A source involved in the Pakistani negotiations revealed that informal consultations since last weekend have made some progress in bridging differences, bringing both sides closer to reaching a framework for an agreement that can be formally presented in the next round of negotiations.

Iran's nuclear issue remains the core sticking point. According to sources familiar with the proposals, the US has suggested a 20-year moratorium on all nuclear activities, while Iran has proposed a 3-5 year moratorium. The US also insists on the removal of all enriched nuclear material from Iranian territory. Given the complexity of the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and major world powers (which Trump withdrew from in 2018), and the potential for long-term monitoring and verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency, it remains unclear whether the two sides can quickly reach a viable nuclear agreement.

Furthermore, Iran desires a full lifting of international sanctions, while the United States is only willing to commit to such a measure if it gains broader international support. These differences still need to be resolved through a new round of face-to-face negotiations.

The blockade continues: the US intensifies its pressure stance.

Following the breakdown of negotiations last weekend, the United States immediately imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, a move that sparked strong dissatisfaction and angry remarks from Tehran.

U.S. Central Command stated that in the initial 24 hours after the blockade was implemented, no ships successfully crossed the blockade line, and six merchant ships chose to turn back. Central Command added that more than a dozen U.S. warships are currently involved in the blockade operation, which targets only ships traveling to and from Iran.

However, according to shipping data, actual shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday was hardly affected by the US blockade, with at least eight ships passing through smoothly. This suggests that the actual effectiveness of the blockade remains somewhat uncertain.

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement last week. Despite heated rhetoric from both sides, the overall situation remained largely stable during the first week of the ceasefire.

Oil price decline and market reaction

While the blockade exacerbated market concerns about energy supplies, recent signs that diplomatic contacts might continue helped stabilize the oil market, pushing benchmark oil prices below the key $100 per barrel mark on Tuesday. Analysts point out that due to backlogs, damaged infrastructure, and continued high uncertainty, oil prices are likely to remain at high levels in the coming weeks, even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

IMF lowers global economic growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered its global economic growth outlook, warning that the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if current conflicts escalate further and oil prices remain above $100 a barrel until 2027. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency also significantly reduced its global oil supply and demand growth forecasts.

This latest standoff has further exacerbated the uncertainty surrounding global energy security and the supply prospects of oil-dependent commodities.

NATO allies, including Britain and France, have made it clear that they will not be drawn into the conflict by participating in the blockade, but they have indicated that they will help maintain security in the Strait once an agreement is reached.

As a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, the Asian power expressed strong concern over the US blockade, calling it "dangerous and irresponsible" and saying it would only further escalate regional tensions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the country for stockpiling oil during the conflict.

Public opinion polls show a slight decline in domestic approval ratings in the United States.

Following the ceasefire announcement, a poll conducted from April 10 to 12 showed that 35% of Americans supported a U.S. military strike against Iran, down from 37% a week earlier. This figure reflects rising concerns within the United States about the continuation of the conflict.

Overall , despite the breakdown of negotiations and the resulting blockade last weekend, the US and Iran have maintained contact through informal channels and may return to Pakistan before the end of this week to resume formal talks. This offers hope for the continuation of the fragile ceasefire agreement and also provides a possibility for easing pressure on global energy markets. However, core differences such as the Iranian nuclear issue, the lifting of sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain prominent, and the future negotiation process remains fraught with uncertainty.

The international community is closely monitoring the developments, as any progress or deterioration will directly impact global economic growth, energy supply, and the geopolitical landscape.