Middle East conflicts drive up oil prices, European oil giants rake in huge profits, and their first-quarter earnings reports are about to ignite the market.
2026-04-20 10:16:45
European oil giants are poised for a profit feast. From late May to early May, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor, among other European oil and gas giants, will release their first-quarter 2026 results. These companies all stated that their trading divisions have earned substantial profits in oil and gas trading, primarily due to the extreme volatility in the international oil and gas market triggered by the Middle East conflict. Analysts point out that this supply crisis is arguably the most severe in history.
Although major oil companies do not typically disclose specific figures for trading profits separately, the aforementioned European giants have clearly signaled that they are reaping substantial returns from oil and gas trading.
Shell is among the first major oil giants to publicly announce a significant increase in its trading profits. In its first-quarter financial report this year, the company explicitly stated that profits from its oil and gas trading business were "significantly higher than expected." Shell attributed this windfall to the severe volatility in the international oil and gas market caused by disruptions to production and exports in the Middle East.
Shell also noted that its own oil and gas production declined compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the direct impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar's natural gas production. First-quarter oil and gas production is projected to be between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 948,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Shell plans to officially release its full first-quarter results on May 7.
Following Shell, BP also revealed in its latest earnings update that its oil trading results for the first quarter of 2026 will be "exceptionally strong." BP emphasized that this performance is mainly due to extreme volatility in oil prices. Those who only focus on the futures market might be confused by the description of "extreme volatility," but those closely tracking physical oil prices will not be surprised. Earlier this month, the price of Brent crude for immediate delivery surged to $150 per barrel.
BP further noted that all projected earnings have factored in the impact of the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and refined product prices in the latter part of the first quarter. With fuel shortages beginning to emerge in parts of the world, BP's strong trading momentum is likely to continue into the second quarter.
BP will release its full first-quarter earnings report on April 28.
TotalEnergies will become the third European giant to publicly highlight significant growth in oil and gas trading profits, with the company set to release its first-quarter results on April 29.
In its latest update, TotalEnergies stated that the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has resulted in the shutdown of up to 15% of its global oil and gas production, a segment that accounts for one-tenth of the company's upstream operating cash flow. Despite the production losses, TotalEnergies is optimistic that a broad-based increase in international oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices will significantly boost trading profits. The company explicitly stated: "The integrated LNG business is expected to deliver significantly higher performance and cash flow than in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a 10% increase in LNG production compared to the fourth quarter, and strong trading activity benefiting from market volatility."
In addition, the successful commissioning of new projects in Brazil and Libya has effectively offset production losses in the Middle East, allowing TotalEnergies to maintain roughly the same total output in the first quarter as in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Norwegian state-owned energy giant Equinor will also benefit from the unusually volatile oil and gas market, with the company set to release its first-quarter results on May 6.
In its latest update, Equinor stated, "The Persian Gulf conflict drove significant volatility in the crude oil, refined product, and liquid fuel markets at the end of the quarter." The company had previously guided for trading unit operating revenue of approximately $400 million, but the actual result is expected to be significantly higher. As Europe's largest single natural gas supplier, Equinor added that geographical spreads in Europe, which are not directly linked to the Middle East situation, also provided additional benefits for optimizing European gas flows.
These gains are expected to continue to materialize in the current quarter and into the coming quarters as the EU begins to replenish its natural gas reserves, which were significantly depleted during the cold winter.
In stark contrast to their European counterparts, U.S. oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron, while also benefiting from rising oil and gas prices, have faced significant drags due to hedging decisions and the performance of their downstream businesses.
Exxon said the Middle East conflict could impact its earnings by $2.9 billion, but factors such as refining operations, price hedging losses, and transportation disruptions are expected to have a negative impact of $3.3 billion to $5.3 billion, ultimately dragging down the overall net result.
Chevron is in a similar situation. The company expects its first-quarter profit to increase by $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, but losses from downstream operations and hedging activities are expected to be between $2.7 billion and $3.7 billion, which will significantly offset the positive effects of rising oil prices.
Eni, an Italian company, is also attracting significant attention in the European energy landscape.
The company's CEO, Claudio Descalzi, had already indicated earlier this year (before the conflict with Iran) that the company was likely to accelerate its return to the oil and gas trading business. In an interview in February, he stated, "I stopped trading in 2019, but other big companies are traders. BP, Shell, and Total are all large traders, and they've made billions of dollars from it."
In conclusion , during periods of supply shortages triggered by Middle East conflicts, European oil giants once again demonstrated strong profitability resilience thanks to their robust trading capabilities. While their American counterparts suffered some losses due to hedging operations, overall, major oil companies are still expected to reap substantial returns for their shareholders.
This round of fluctuations in the oil and gas market not only highlights the core competitiveness of European giants in global energy trade, but also indicates that the performance of related companies will remain highly prosperous in the coming quarters.
Although major oil companies do not typically disclose specific figures for trading profits separately, the aforementioned European giants have clearly signaled that they are reaping substantial returns from oil and gas trading.
Shell is the first to signal high trading profits.
Shell is among the first major oil giants to publicly announce a significant increase in its trading profits. In its first-quarter financial report this year, the company explicitly stated that profits from its oil and gas trading business were "significantly higher than expected." Shell attributed this windfall to the severe volatility in the international oil and gas market caused by disruptions to production and exports in the Middle East.
Shell also noted that its own oil and gas production declined compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 due to the direct impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar's natural gas production. First-quarter oil and gas production is projected to be between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 948,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Shell plans to officially release its full first-quarter results on May 7.
BP's oil trading results are expected to be exceptionally strong.
Following Shell, BP also revealed in its latest earnings update that its oil trading results for the first quarter of 2026 will be "exceptionally strong." BP emphasized that this performance is mainly due to extreme volatility in oil prices. Those who only focus on the futures market might be confused by the description of "extreme volatility," but those closely tracking physical oil prices will not be surprised. Earlier this month, the price of Brent crude for immediate delivery surged to $150 per barrel.
BP further noted that all projected earnings have factored in the impact of the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the resulting volatility in crude oil, natural gas, and refined product prices in the latter part of the first quarter. With fuel shortages beginning to emerge in parts of the world, BP's strong trading momentum is likely to continue into the second quarter.
BP will release its full first-quarter earnings report on April 28.
TotalEnergies is ramping up its LNG business and trading activities.
TotalEnergies will become the third European giant to publicly highlight significant growth in oil and gas trading profits, with the company set to release its first-quarter results on April 29.
In its latest update, TotalEnergies stated that the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has resulted in the shutdown of up to 15% of its global oil and gas production, a segment that accounts for one-tenth of the company's upstream operating cash flow. Despite the production losses, TotalEnergies is optimistic that a broad-based increase in international oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices will significantly boost trading profits. The company explicitly stated: "The integrated LNG business is expected to deliver significantly higher performance and cash flow than in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by a 10% increase in LNG production compared to the fourth quarter, and strong trading activity benefiting from market volatility."
In addition, the successful commissioning of new projects in Brazil and Libya has effectively offset production losses in the Middle East, allowing TotalEnergies to maintain roughly the same total output in the first quarter as in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Equinor has profited handsomely from the Persian Gulf conflict.
Norwegian state-owned energy giant Equinor will also benefit from the unusually volatile oil and gas market, with the company set to release its first-quarter results on May 6.
In its latest update, Equinor stated, "The Persian Gulf conflict drove significant volatility in the crude oil, refined product, and liquid fuel markets at the end of the quarter." The company had previously guided for trading unit operating revenue of approximately $400 million, but the actual result is expected to be significantly higher. As Europe's largest single natural gas supplier, Equinor added that geographical spreads in Europe, which are not directly linked to the Middle East situation, also provided additional benefits for optimizing European gas flows.
These gains are expected to continue to materialize in the current quarter and into the coming quarters as the EU begins to replenish its natural gas reserves, which were significantly depleted during the cold winter.
Hedging operations by two major US giants dragged down overall performance.
In stark contrast to their European counterparts, U.S. oil giants ExxonMobil and Chevron, while also benefiting from rising oil and gas prices, have faced significant drags due to hedging decisions and the performance of their downstream businesses.
Exxon said the Middle East conflict could impact its earnings by $2.9 billion, but factors such as refining operations, price hedging losses, and transportation disruptions are expected to have a negative impact of $3.3 billion to $5.3 billion, ultimately dragging down the overall net result.
Chevron is in a similar situation. The company expects its first-quarter profit to increase by $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, but losses from downstream operations and hedging activities are expected to be between $2.7 billion and $3.7 billion, which will significantly offset the positive effects of rising oil prices.
Italy's Eni may accelerate its return to the oil and gas trading sector.
Eni, an Italian company, is also attracting significant attention in the European energy landscape.
The company's CEO, Claudio Descalzi, had already indicated earlier this year (before the conflict with Iran) that the company was likely to accelerate its return to the oil and gas trading business. In an interview in February, he stated, "I stopped trading in 2019, but other big companies are traders. BP, Shell, and Total are all large traders, and they've made billions of dollars from it."
In conclusion , during periods of supply shortages triggered by Middle East conflicts, European oil giants once again demonstrated strong profitability resilience thanks to their robust trading capabilities. While their American counterparts suffered some losses due to hedging operations, overall, major oil companies are still expected to reap substantial returns for their shareholders.
This round of fluctuations in the oil and gas market not only highlights the core competitiveness of European giants in global energy trade, but also indicates that the performance of related companies will remain highly prosperous in the coming quarters.
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