According to APP, copper prices are retreating from their closing highs since early February. After four consecutive weeks of gains, the metal fell about 1.1% in early Asian trading, with zinc and lead prices also declining in tandem. Data shows that oil prices surged on Monday, partially offsetting last week's significant pullback, while most metal prices were generally under pressure as concerns about global economic growth once again dominated trading sentiment.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy transport chokepoint, faces the greatest threat to metal assets due to the potential for long-term closure. This situation could exacerbate the energy shock already impacting the global economy, drive up production costs, force central banks to adopt more aggressive policy stances, and ultimately affect global manufacturing and damage overall demand for industrial goods.

The current backdrop is that the US seizure of an Iranian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz has directly led to greater uncertainty in ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The market had initially hoped that recent progress in negotiations would ease energy supply tensions, but this sudden action shattered that brief optimism. Copper, as a core indicator of global industrial activity, reflects investors' dual concerns about supply chain disruptions and slowing demand. Latest market data shows that while copper prices have retreated from two-month highs, zinc and lead have also followed suit, demonstrating the overall vulnerability of the industrial metals sector.

From a deeper perspective, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz will amplify the impact through two pathways: first, persistently high energy prices will directly increase raw material and logistics costs for manufacturing; second, global supply chain confidence will be dampened, leading to decreased corporate capital expenditure and inventory replenishment. The recent nearly 7% rebound in oil prices clearly confirms this transmission mechanism, while the decline in metal prices has already priced in demand-side pressures. If global manufacturing PMI data weakens due to rising energy costs, central bank policy space will be further compressed, and rising market expectations for interest rate hikes will, in turn, suppress investment demand for commodities, creating a negative feedback loop.

To visually compare the impact of different risk scenarios on the market, the following table summarizes the two main paths under the current event:

Further analysis reveals that this event highlights the dominant role of geopolitical risks in commodity pricing. Unlike purely supply-demand driven cyclical fluctuations, any disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz can instantly alter the global energy balance. As core downstream industries for industrial metals, sectors such as automobiles, construction, and electronics will be the first to feel cost pressures. Compressed profit margins may lead to delayed capital expenditures, ultimately impacting demand for copper, zinc, and lead. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent negotiation developments and oil price trends, as these will be crucial leading indicators for determining the bottom of the metals market.

Editor's Summary:
The latest conflict between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the global commodities market landscape. Short-term metal price pullbacks reflect demand concerns, while oil price rebounds highlight the fragility of energy supplies. Regardless of the outcome of negotiations, continuous monitoring of navigation conditions in the Strait and central bank policy signals will be crucial for managing the pace of industrial commodity investment.