The ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States expired at midnight, and tensions escalated sharply.
2026-04-22 01:46:49
On Tuesday (April 21) during the US trading session (early morning of April 22 Beijing time), as the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States entered its final countdown, market optimism regarding the peace talks quickly faded, and crude oil futures prices continued to rise sharply, driven by a surge in geopolitical risks. Multiple institutions warned that the energy crisis triggered by this conflict could surpass the combined effects of the 1973, 1979, and 2022 oil crises, and that the risk of supply disruptions has been significantly underestimated.
The ceasefire agreement faces a "hard landing".
Iranian state television reported on the 21st that the two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States would expire at midnight GMT on the 21st. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that due to the erratic attitude of the United States, Iran has not yet made a final decision on whether to participate in the relevant talks with Pakistan.
Ibrahim Aziz, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, stated unequivocally: "If the enemy does not understand diplomatic language, Iran will choose the language of the battlefield with the support of the people." Hazrati, head of the Iranian government's Information Committee, also emphasized that internet connectivity will only be restored "after the war ends and the enemy is completely defeated."
In the United States, President Trump publicly stated on Tuesday that he was unwilling to extend the expiring ceasefire agreement, adding that "the U.S. military is ready to act if negotiations fail." Vice President Vance's planned trip to Islamabad has been postponed. The initial market optimism regarding the "peace talks news" and "signals of departure" has completely reversed, and tensions are rapidly escalating.
Real-time oil price trends: WTI and Brent both jump
As of 11:58 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday (early morning of the 22nd Beijing Time), Brent crude oil futures (LCOc1) rose $2.48, or 2.6%, to $97.96 per barrel; U.S. WTI crude oil futures (CLc1) rose $3.54, or 4.0%, to $93.15 per barrel, having touched a new intraday high during the session.
Data shows that oil prices rose rapidly by about 3% after Trump's statement. At 22:29 on April 21, US crude oil rose by $1 per barrel due to the near-complete halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; at 01:12 on April 22, Brent crude oil rose another $4 per barrel as Iran had not yet decided on the talks.
Multiple shocks on the supply side
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed: only three ships have passed through the area, which accounts for about 20% of the world's oil and LNG transport routes, in the past 24 hours. The U.S. military has seized an oil tanker linked to Iran in international waters, further exacerbating shipping anxieties.
Russia's oil routes are in jeopardy: Russia plans to halt Kazakh oil exports to Germany via the Friendship pipeline starting May 1; Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the Friendship pipeline is ready to resume operation, but Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil facilities in the Samara region that evening.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that its executive director, Fatih Birol, has stated that the conflict with Iran has triggered "the worst energy crisis in history," with an impact that may exceed the sum of all previous oil crises.
Market expectations and inventory data await
Financial institutions generally believe that current oil prices have not fully priced in the risk of prolonged supply disruptions. ING analysts point out that optimism surrounding the negotiation prospects masks the reality of high oil prices throughout the year.
The market is awaiting tonight's API and tomorrow's EIA weekly inventory reports. Analysts unanimously expect U.S. crude oil inventories to decrease by 1.8 million barrels in the week ending April 17, marking the first two consecutive weeks of inventory reductions since February, far exceeding the levels of the same period last year and the average of the past five years.
From "optimism about peace talks" to "ceasefire expiration + unresolved Iranian issue + vice president's trip stalled," geopolitical tensions reversed in just a few hours. The bullish logic for crude oil has shifted from "short-term risk premium" to "tight supply balance throughout the year." If the ceasefire agreement expires as scheduled without any substantial diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices will likely continue to test the $100/barrel mark. Investors need to closely monitor tonight's API inventory data and the latest statements from both the US and Iran, as short-term volatility may further increase.
At 01:44 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $89.41 per barrel, up 2.28%.
The ceasefire agreement faces a "hard landing".
Iranian state television reported on the 21st that the two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States would expire at midnight GMT on the 21st. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that due to the erratic attitude of the United States, Iran has not yet made a final decision on whether to participate in the relevant talks with Pakistan.
Ibrahim Aziz, chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, stated unequivocally: "If the enemy does not understand diplomatic language, Iran will choose the language of the battlefield with the support of the people." Hazrati, head of the Iranian government's Information Committee, also emphasized that internet connectivity will only be restored "after the war ends and the enemy is completely defeated."
In the United States, President Trump publicly stated on Tuesday that he was unwilling to extend the expiring ceasefire agreement, adding that "the U.S. military is ready to act if negotiations fail." Vice President Vance's planned trip to Islamabad has been postponed. The initial market optimism regarding the "peace talks news" and "signals of departure" has completely reversed, and tensions are rapidly escalating.
Real-time oil price trends: WTI and Brent both jump
As of 11:58 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday (early morning of the 22nd Beijing Time), Brent crude oil futures (LCOc1) rose $2.48, or 2.6%, to $97.96 per barrel; U.S. WTI crude oil futures (CLc1) rose $3.54, or 4.0%, to $93.15 per barrel, having touched a new intraday high during the session.
Data shows that oil prices rose rapidly by about 3% after Trump's statement. At 22:29 on April 21, US crude oil rose by $1 per barrel due to the near-complete halt of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; at 01:12 on April 22, Brent crude oil rose another $4 per barrel as Iran had not yet decided on the talks.
Multiple shocks on the supply side
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed: only three ships have passed through the area, which accounts for about 20% of the world's oil and LNG transport routes, in the past 24 hours. The U.S. military has seized an oil tanker linked to Iran in international waters, further exacerbating shipping anxieties.
Russia's oil routes are in jeopardy: Russia plans to halt Kazakh oil exports to Germany via the Friendship pipeline starting May 1; Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the Friendship pipeline is ready to resume operation, but Ukrainian drones attacked Russian oil facilities in the Samara region that evening.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that its executive director, Fatih Birol, has stated that the conflict with Iran has triggered "the worst energy crisis in history," with an impact that may exceed the sum of all previous oil crises.
Market expectations and inventory data await
Financial institutions generally believe that current oil prices have not fully priced in the risk of prolonged supply disruptions. ING analysts point out that optimism surrounding the negotiation prospects masks the reality of high oil prices throughout the year.
The market is awaiting tonight's API and tomorrow's EIA weekly inventory reports. Analysts unanimously expect U.S. crude oil inventories to decrease by 1.8 million barrels in the week ending April 17, marking the first two consecutive weeks of inventory reductions since February, far exceeding the levels of the same period last year and the average of the past five years.
From "optimism about peace talks" to "ceasefire expiration + unresolved Iranian issue + vice president's trip stalled," geopolitical tensions reversed in just a few hours. The bullish logic for crude oil has shifted from "short-term risk premium" to "tight supply balance throughout the year." If the ceasefire agreement expires as scheduled without any substantial diplomatic breakthrough, oil prices will likely continue to test the $100/barrel mark. Investors need to closely monitor tonight's API inventory data and the latest statements from both the US and Iran, as short-term volatility may further increase.
At 01:44 Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $89.41 per barrel, up 2.28%.
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