A stronger dollar and a rebound in oil prices pressured gold prices to pull back.
2026-04-23 09:50:21
Gold (XAU/USD) weakened in early Asian trading on Thursday, falling back to around $4730 , continuing the correction from the previous trading day. The core driver of this pullback was a shift in market expectations regarding the situation in the Middle East. Although the conflict is not yet completely over, discussions surrounding a ceasefire have caused some safe-haven funds to withdraw from the gold market.
The US has stated that the ceasefire agreement reached on April 7 will remain in effect, pending a new proposal from the other side. However, the other side has not yet shown any willingness to participate in further negotiations, causing the diplomatic process to stall. Previously planned high-level talks have also been cancelled, significantly dampening market expectations for a substantial breakthrough in the short term.
Although the ceasefire framework remains in place, the situation has not truly eased. The risk of blockades on key energy routes persists, and shipping disruptions continue to push up energy costs. Market estimates indicate that this route handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport; this supply uncertainty has kept oil prices high and further intensified global inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, market expectations for interest rate cuts by major economies have been postponed, and the interest rate environment remains tight.
From an asset perspective, gold typically possesses a safe-haven advantage during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. However, its characteristic of not generating interest becomes a significant disadvantage in a high-interest-rate environment. Currently, the high yields on US Treasury bonds increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, becoming a major factor suppressing gold prices. Therefore, even with inflationary support, the upside potential for gold remains limited.
Meanwhile, the dollar's performance also has a crucial impact on gold. If subsequent negotiations release positive signals and market risk appetite recovers, the dollar may weaken, thus supporting dollar-denominated gold. Conversely, if negotiations remain deadlocked or even worsen, while safe-haven demand may return, the high-interest-rate environment will still limit the upward slope of gold prices.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation structure on the daily chart. While the overall trend hasn't completely turned bearish, upward momentum has clearly weakened. Currently, the price is facing short-term resistance around $4800 , while $4700 forms key support. A break below this level could lead to a further test of the $4650 area. Momentum indicators suggest that bullish momentum is waning, and the market is entering a consolidation phase. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are exhibiting a downward-trending structure, with short-term moving averages beginning to turn downwards. If the rebound fails to hold above $4750 , there is a risk of further pullback; however, a break above $4780 could potentially restart the upward trend and test higher levels.
Editor's Summary : Overall, gold is currently in a tug-of-war between "geopolitical risk support" and "high interest rate suppression." In the short term, market focus is on the progress of Middle East negotiations and changes in energy supply risks, which will directly affect inflation expectations and the path of monetary policy. From a medium-term perspective, as long as interest rates remain high, the upside potential for gold will be limited. However, if there are clear signals of a policy shift or a renewed deterioration in the geopolitical situation, gold prices still have the foundation to strengthen again. Investors should pay close attention to changes in interest rate expectations and the trend of the US dollar, as these two variables will determine the direction of gold in the next stage.
The US has stated that the ceasefire agreement reached on April 7 will remain in effect, pending a new proposal from the other side. However, the other side has not yet shown any willingness to participate in further negotiations, causing the diplomatic process to stall. Previously planned high-level talks have also been cancelled, significantly dampening market expectations for a substantial breakthrough in the short term.
Although the ceasefire framework remains in place, the situation has not truly eased. The risk of blockades on key energy routes persists, and shipping disruptions continue to push up energy costs. Market estimates indicate that this route handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport; this supply uncertainty has kept oil prices high and further intensified global inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, market expectations for interest rate cuts by major economies have been postponed, and the interest rate environment remains tight.
From an asset perspective, gold typically possesses a safe-haven advantage during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. However, its characteristic of not generating interest becomes a significant disadvantage in a high-interest-rate environment. Currently, the high yields on US Treasury bonds increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, becoming a major factor suppressing gold prices. Therefore, even with inflationary support, the upside potential for gold remains limited.
Meanwhile, the dollar's performance also has a crucial impact on gold. If subsequent negotiations release positive signals and market risk appetite recovers, the dollar may weaken, thus supporting dollar-denominated gold. Conversely, if negotiations remain deadlocked or even worsen, while safe-haven demand may return, the high-interest-rate environment will still limit the upward slope of gold prices.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation structure on the daily chart. While the overall trend hasn't completely turned bearish, upward momentum has clearly weakened. Currently, the price is facing short-term resistance around $4800 , while $4700 forms key support. A break below this level could lead to a further test of the $4650 area. Momentum indicators suggest that bullish momentum is waning, and the market is entering a consolidation phase. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are exhibiting a downward-trending structure, with short-term moving averages beginning to turn downwards. If the rebound fails to hold above $4750 , there is a risk of further pullback; however, a break above $4780 could potentially restart the upward trend and test higher levels.
Editor's Summary : Overall, gold is currently in a tug-of-war between "geopolitical risk support" and "high interest rate suppression." In the short term, market focus is on the progress of Middle East negotiations and changes in energy supply risks, which will directly affect inflation expectations and the path of monetary policy. From a medium-term perspective, as long as interest rates remain high, the upside potential for gold will be limited. However, if there are clear signals of a policy shift or a renewed deterioration in the geopolitical situation, gold prices still have the foundation to strengthen again. Investors should pay close attention to changes in interest rate expectations and the trend of the US dollar, as these two variables will determine the direction of gold in the next stage.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
