Disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz boosted oil prices and supported the US dollar; AUD/USD traded in a range.
2026-04-24 15:31:56
The Australian dollar remained weak against the US dollar during Friday's European session, trading around 0.7120. The exchange rate had stabilized temporarily after retreating from its previous highs, but remained under pressure from a stronger US dollar.
The primary driver of the current market is the changes in the energy market. Continued disruptions to shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty regarding global energy supplies. This passage carries approximately 20% of global energy transport, and its obstruction directly pushes up international oil prices. WTI crude oil prices remain around $95, up about 20% from previous lows, reinforcing market expectations of rising inflation.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar received significant support. Rising energy prices typically push up US inflation, thereby reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Market expectations are widespread that interest rates will remain high, making dollar assets more attractive. Meanwhile, the dollar index remained near 99, close to its recent high, indicating an overall strong trend.
From a currency performance perspective, the US dollar generally strengthened against major currencies this week, further suppressing the Australian dollar's performance. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar typically benefits from rising commodity prices, but in the current environment, the US dollar's interest rate advantage and safe-haven appeal dominate, limiting the Australian dollar's rebound.
From a fundamental perspective, the market is focused on the upcoming release of Australian inflation data. Australia's first-quarter CPI figures will be a crucial indicator of future policy direction. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will also be a key variable, potentially further influencing exchange rate movements.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, AUD/USD has remained above key moving averages after its pullback, indicating that the overall trend has not completely weakened. The current price is trading above the 20-day exponential moving average at 0.7089, suggesting that the short-term bullish structure still has support. In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 57, in the neutral-to-strong zone, indicating that the market still has some upward momentum.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the exchange rate is showing a consolidation pattern, with short-term upward momentum slowing down. If the price breaks below the 0.7089 support level, it could trigger a deeper pullback, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000. On the upside, watch the previous high of 0.7222; a successful break above this level could lead to further gains towards the 0.7300 area.
Overall, AUD/USD is currently in a tug-of-war phase between "bearish fundamentals and supportive technicals," and its short-term trend is mainly characterized by fluctuations.
Editor's Summary
The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by both macroeconomic factors and technical structures. Rising oil prices have strengthened inflation expectations, supporting a stronger US dollar and thus suppressing the Australian dollar. However, from a technical perspective, the exchange rate remains above key support and has not yet formed a clear downtrend. Future movements will depend on inflation data and central bank policy signals; once the fundamentals change, the exchange rate may choose a directional breakout.
The primary driver of the current market is the changes in the energy market. Continued disruptions to shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have created uncertainty regarding global energy supplies. This passage carries approximately 20% of global energy transport, and its obstruction directly pushes up international oil prices. WTI crude oil prices remain around $95, up about 20% from previous lows, reinforcing market expectations of rising inflation.
Against this backdrop, the US dollar received significant support. Rising energy prices typically push up US inflation, thereby reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Market expectations are widespread that interest rates will remain high, making dollar assets more attractive. Meanwhile, the dollar index remained near 99, close to its recent high, indicating an overall strong trend.
From a currency performance perspective, the US dollar generally strengthened against major currencies this week, further suppressing the Australian dollar's performance. As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar typically benefits from rising commodity prices, but in the current environment, the US dollar's interest rate advantage and safe-haven appeal dominate, limiting the Australian dollar's rebound.
From a fundamental perspective, the market is focused on the upcoming release of Australian inflation data. Australia's first-quarter CPI figures will be a crucial indicator of future policy direction. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will also be a key variable, potentially further influencing exchange rate movements.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, AUD/USD has remained above key moving averages after its pullback, indicating that the overall trend has not completely weakened. The current price is trading above the 20-day exponential moving average at 0.7089, suggesting that the short-term bullish structure still has support. In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 57, in the neutral-to-strong zone, indicating that the market still has some upward momentum.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, the exchange rate is showing a consolidation pattern, with short-term upward momentum slowing down. If the price breaks below the 0.7089 support level, it could trigger a deeper pullback, targeting the psychological level of 0.7000. On the upside, watch the previous high of 0.7222; a successful break above this level could lead to further gains towards the 0.7300 area.
Overall, AUD/USD is currently in a tug-of-war phase between "bearish fundamentals and supportive technicals," and its short-term trend is mainly characterized by fluctuations.
Editor's Summary
The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by both macroeconomic factors and technical structures. Rising oil prices have strengthened inflation expectations, supporting a stronger US dollar and thus suppressing the Australian dollar. However, from a technical perspective, the exchange rate remains above key support and has not yet formed a clear downtrend. Future movements will depend on inflation data and central bank policy signals; once the fundamentals change, the exchange rate may choose a directional breakout.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
