The protracted confrontation between the US and Iran makes it difficult to break the deadlock in peace talks.
2026-04-28 21:48:30
The geopolitical rivalry between the US and Iran continues to stalemate, prompting Iran to put forward a new reconciliation proposal.
The core bargaining chip of the plan is the full resumption of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the United States lifting its maritime blockade of Iranian ports and formally ending military conflict in the region.
At the same time, Iran is sticking to its core security red lines and is demanding that all negotiations on issues related to its nuclear program be postponed until after the war, no longer accepting the previous compromise model.
Tehran has abandoned its old approach of exchanging concessions on the nuclear issue for the easing of sanctions, and will never back down on key sovereignty issues. This has become the most irreconcilable fundamental contradiction between the US and Iran.
The Trump administration has taken a clear and tough stance in response to Iran's reconciliation proposals, rejecting all terms of the current version outright.
The US has consistently insisted that the nuclear issue must be resolved as a priority and firmly disagrees with skipping core issues and lifting the blockade and ceasefire ahead of time.
The White House has convened a high-level security team to assess the situation behind closed doors. Senior officials generally have doubts about Iran's willingness to negotiate, believing that hastily lifting the naval blockade would directly result in the loss of key bargaining chips and long-term strategic deterrence.
The US is unwilling to make concessions under passive conditions, and the demands of the US and Iran are completely opposed, making it highly unlikely that a comprehensive peace agreement will be reached in the short term.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered a strategic choke point for global energy, with more than one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipping routes passing through it, directly maintaining the global energy supply and demand balance.
Previously, Iran's targeted restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz created an energy supply gap in the market, directly driving up international oil prices and exacerbating global inflationary pressures.
The continued disruption of shipping lanes has impacted the global commodity supply chain and the dollar liquidity cycle, while also suppressing the exchange rate trends of emerging market currencies. Geopolitical risk premiums have surged across the board, becoming a core variable influencing the trends of foreign exchange, energy, and safe-haven assets.
European countries, which have long been heavily reliant on energy imports from the Middle East, are continuing to suffer the double blow of high oil prices and high inflation, with increasing pressure on people's livelihoods and the economy.
As the situation remains deadlocked, European countries' patience continues to wear thin. Many countries have publicly acknowledged Iran's mature negotiation strategy and indirectly criticized the United States' inappropriate Middle East decisions, gradually revealing rifts among allies.
The increasingly prominent internal contradictions and the real economic difficulties will continue to create external pressure, forcing the United States to re-evaluate the pros and cons, and may subsequently be forced to adjust its original hardline negotiating pace.
Currently, global capital and commodity markets are focused on the timeline for the full resumption of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the short term, the strait will only adopt a small-scale, restricted passage mode, resulting in a significant reduction in overall navigation volume and making it difficult to improve the current situation of obstructed energy transportation; the pace of navigation recovery in the medium term will be entirely tied to the direction of US-Iran negotiations and changes in the geopolitical situation.
Even if a consensus is reached to open the waterway, it will take at least two months to achieve normalized passage across the strait, considering the processes of route adjustments, ship scheduling, and the repair of the shipping support system.
The speed at which this energy lifeline is reopened will dominate international oil price fluctuations and the stability of the global energy supply chain in the long term, and will profoundly affect the price trends of the US dollar index, commodities, and global risk assets.
The core bargaining chip of the plan is the full resumption of free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the United States lifting its maritime blockade of Iranian ports and formally ending military conflict in the region.
At the same time, Iran is sticking to its core security red lines and is demanding that all negotiations on issues related to its nuclear program be postponed until after the war, no longer accepting the previous compromise model.
Tehran has abandoned its old approach of exchanging concessions on the nuclear issue for the easing of sanctions, and will never back down on key sovereignty issues. This has become the most irreconcilable fundamental contradiction between the US and Iran.
The US firmly rejected the offer, refusing to compromise and holding onto its negotiating leverage.
The Trump administration has taken a clear and tough stance in response to Iran's reconciliation proposals, rejecting all terms of the current version outright.
The US has consistently insisted that the nuclear issue must be resolved as a priority and firmly disagrees with skipping core issues and lifting the blockade and ceasefire ahead of time.
The White House has convened a high-level security team to assess the situation behind closed doors. Senior officials generally have doubts about Iran's willingness to negotiate, believing that hastily lifting the naval blockade would directly result in the loss of key bargaining chips and long-term strategic deterrence.
The US is unwilling to make concessions under passive conditions, and the demands of the US and Iran are completely opposed, making it highly unlikely that a comprehensive peace agreement will be reached in the short term.
Restricted air routes: Triggering global energy and financial volatility
The Strait of Hormuz is considered a strategic choke point for global energy, with more than one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipping routes passing through it, directly maintaining the global energy supply and demand balance.
Previously, Iran's targeted restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz created an energy supply gap in the market, directly driving up international oil prices and exacerbating global inflationary pressures.
The continued disruption of shipping lanes has impacted the global commodity supply chain and the dollar liquidity cycle, while also suppressing the exchange rate trends of emerging market currencies. Geopolitical risk premiums have surged across the board, becoming a core variable influencing the trends of foreign exchange, energy, and safe-haven assets.
Diverging European stances: External pressure gradually intensifies
European countries, which have long been heavily reliant on energy imports from the Middle East, are continuing to suffer the double blow of high oil prices and high inflation, with increasing pressure on people's livelihoods and the economy.
As the situation remains deadlocked, European countries' patience continues to wear thin. Many countries have publicly acknowledged Iran's mature negotiation strategy and indirectly criticized the United States' inappropriate Middle East decisions, gradually revealing rifts among allies.
The increasingly prominent internal contradictions and the real economic difficulties will continue to create external pressure, forcing the United States to re-evaluate the pros and cons, and may subsequently be forced to adjust its original hardline negotiating pace.
Forecast of Strait passage time: Short-term restrictions, long recovery period
Currently, global capital and commodity markets are focused on the timeline for the full resumption of normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the short term, the strait will only adopt a small-scale, restricted passage mode, resulting in a significant reduction in overall navigation volume and making it difficult to improve the current situation of obstructed energy transportation; the pace of navigation recovery in the medium term will be entirely tied to the direction of US-Iran negotiations and changes in the geopolitical situation.
Even if a consensus is reached to open the waterway, it will take at least two months to achieve normalized passage across the strait, considering the processes of route adjustments, ship scheduling, and the repair of the shipping support system.
The speed at which this energy lifeline is reopened will dominate international oil price fluctuations and the stability of the global energy supply chain in the long term, and will profoundly affect the price trends of the US dollar index, commodities, and global risk assets.
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