Tensions are high! Iran issues its strongest warning yet: if the US attacks again, it will suffer a "protracted and severe" blow.
2026-05-01 08:27:23
Two months after the outbreak of war between the US, Israel, and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical maritime energy route, remains closed. This blockade has directly disrupted approximately 20% of the global oil and gas supply, causing international energy prices to surge. Brent crude oil futures contracts briefly broke through $126 per barrel, reaching a four-year high, before subsequently falling back to around $114, but still remaining at their highest level in four years.
Soaring energy costs have not only exacerbated the burden on national economies but also cast a shadow of increased recession risk over an already fragile global economy. UN Secretary-General António Guterres publicly warned that if the chaos caused by the Straits blockade continues until the middle of this year, global economic growth will slow significantly, inflation will worsen further, and tens of millions of people could be plunged into poverty and extreme hunger. He emphasized that the longer this maritime lifeline is blocked, the more difficult it will be to repair the damage in the future.
In response to continued military pressure from the United States, Iran made it clear on April 30 that if Washington launches any form of attack again, Iran will launch a "protracted and fierce strike" against US positions in the region.
Majid Mousavi, commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, cited Supreme Leader Khamenei's stance and issued a stern warning to the United States: even if the scale of a US attack is limited, Iran will retaliate with "a long and painful reprisal." He pointedly stated that the US military has already witnessed Iran's ability to strike its regional bases, and that US warships will now face the same fate.
In a written statement to the Iranian people, Supreme Leader Khamenei further reiterated Tehran's absolute sovereignty claim over the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that Iran will thoroughly eliminate "the enemy's improper use of this waterway" under a new management framework, implying that Tehran will continue to firmly control the strait and will not easily concede to external pressure. He further stated in a threatening tone: "Those foreigners who have traveled thousands of kilometers away will have nowhere to go but to sink to the bottom of the sea." This statement undoubtedly adds significant complexity and uncertainty to the US's plan to reopen the strait in conjunction with its allies.
According to a U.S. official, President Trump was scheduled to be briefed on April 30 about a new round of military strikes against Iran. This news, first reported by the news website Axios, initially caused a sharp rise in oil prices. One new proposal in the briefing was to use ground troops to take control of parts of the Strait of Hormuz to forcibly restore normal commercial shipping. In addition, Trump was also considering extending the naval blockade against Iran or unilaterally declaring a U.S. victory in the war.
At the same time, Trump also faces real pressure from domestic political processes. According to the official U.S. deadline, he must either end the war or provide Congress with reasons for extending it by May 1st. While analysts and congressional aides generally expect Trump to either notify Congress of his plan to extend the war by 30 days or simply ignore the deadline altogether, this decision will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the situation in the coming days.
In his public statements, Trump reiterated America's bottom line to reporters—that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. He also attempted to calm domestic anxieties about energy prices, emphasizing that gasoline prices would "plummet like rocks" once the war ended. However, Trump's assessment that the Iranian economy was "in ruins" and would soon succumb has been questioned by analysts. They believe that if the White House expects Iran to back down first in the economic standoff, it will likely have to wait a considerable amount of time. Although the conflict has exacerbated Iran's already severe economic problems, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences after the war, Iran currently appears capable of holding out in the Gulf standoff, despite the US blockade cutting off its energy exports.
In response to escalating tensions, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on April 30 a ban on its citizens traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. The UAE cited the latest developments in the region as the reason and strongly urged its citizens currently in these countries to leave immediately and return home. This move reflects the deep concern of Gulf states about the spread of conflict and the deteriorating security situation.
At the international diplomatic level, all parties are still working to ease the crisis. While reiterating accusations of serious human rights abuses by Iran, Trump stated that there was "no problem" with Iran's participation in the upcoming FIFA World Cup in the United States. This statement echoed FIFA President Gianni Infantino's insistence that Iran should participate. Furthermore, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi, after meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Berri, stated that halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon—where a fragile ceasefire is currently maintained—is part of the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the United States and will remain a key issue in any future process. On the other hand, a Pakistani source revealed that as the US and Iran exchange information on a potential agreement, Pakistan, as a mediator, is working to prevent further escalation of the situation.
In conclusion, the current standoff between the US and Iran has reached a dangerous and protracted stalemate. Iran is using the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as its core bargaining chip against a US maritime blockade, while simultaneously issuing stern warnings of military strikes, demonstrating an unwavering stance. The US, on the other hand, faces a dual dilemma: securing vital energy routes while simultaneously seeking a way out under domestic political pressure. Meanwhile, the global energy market is experiencing severe turmoil, the United Nations has issued warnings, regional countries are prioritizing self-preservation, and diplomatic efforts, while continuing, have made limited progress. In the coming days, both Trump's decision regarding the deadline and whether Iran takes further military action will be key variables determining the course of this crisis. The world is holding its breath, watching the ever-changing situation over the Strait of Hormuz.
Question 1: Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to the world?
A: The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, connects the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, and is the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transportation. It is estimated that approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas supply passes through this strait. Major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait rely almost entirely on this route for their energy exports. If the strait were blocked, it would be equivalent to cutting off one-fifth of the global energy flow, inevitably leading to soaring oil prices and supply chain disruptions, which would then drive up production costs and living expenses in various countries, and in severe cases, even trigger a global economic recession. This is the fundamental reason why the international community is highly concerned after Iran blocked the strait.
Question 2: What sovereignty claim does Iran base its claim to block the Strait of Hormuz on?
A: Iran believes that the Strait of Hormuz is adjacent to its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, and that Iran enjoys legitimate security and regulatory rights over these waters. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized the need to eliminate "the enemy's improper use of the waterway," meaning that the US and its allies are using the strait to impose an oil export blockade on Iran, threatening its economic lifeline. Therefore, Iran has the right to take countermeasures to restrict the passage of ships from hostile countries. However, under international law, when the strait is used for international navigation, coastal states cannot obstruct the right of "transit passage." The US and most Western countries believe that Iran's blockade violates international law and constitutes an illegal threat to global shipping. There is a fundamental difference in the interpretation of sovereignty and the right of passage between the two sides.
Question 3: Why is the United States considering launching another military strike against Iran?
A: The US's immediate goal is to force Iran to end its blockade through negotiations and restore international passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Deeper reasons include preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (Trump has explicitly stated "absolutely not"), weakening Iran's military influence in the Middle East, and protecting the security of Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Furthermore, soaring oil prices have put pressure on domestic gasoline prices in the US, becoming a key concern for Republicans in the midterm elections, giving the White House a strong political incentive to resolve the crisis as quickly as possible. Military options include airstrikes on Iranian military facilities and the deployment of ground troops to take over parts of the Strait, but any action could trigger a large-scale Iranian retaliation.
Question 4: What specific impacts will the surge in oil prices have on the global economy?
A: Rising oil prices directly increase transportation and industrial production costs, leading to decreased corporate profits and potentially resulting in layoffs or reduced investment. For ordinary people, rising gasoline and diesel prices increase travel costs, while energy expenditures such as heating oil and electricity also rise. Food prices will also increase, as agricultural production and logistics rely on energy. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable; soaring energy import costs could deplete foreign exchange reserves, triggering currency devaluation and debt crises. The UN Secretary-General warned that if lockdowns continue, tens of millions will fall into poverty and extreme hunger, global economic growth will slow significantly, inflation will worsen, and there is a risk of stagflation.
Question 5: Why did the UAE issue an emergency ban on its citizens traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq?
A: The UAE's decision stems directly from the rapidly deteriorating regional security situation. The military conflict between Iran and the US and Israel has lasted for two months. Iran has not only blocked the Strait of Hormuz but has also launched drones and missiles at US military bases in the Gulf states and targets linked to Israel. As a key US ally in the Gulf, the UAE is concerned about potential security threats to its citizens in Iran, Lebanon (where Hezbollah, supported by Iran, is active), and Iraq (where pro-Iranian militias exist), such as detention, accidental injury, or involvement in the conflict. This ban is both a practical measure to protect its citizens and a diplomatic signal demonstrating the UAE's serious dissatisfaction with Iran's actions and its deep concern about the situation spiraling out of control.
Soaring energy costs have not only exacerbated the burden on national economies but also cast a shadow of increased recession risk over an already fragile global economy. UN Secretary-General António Guterres publicly warned that if the chaos caused by the Straits blockade continues until the middle of this year, global economic growth will slow significantly, inflation will worsen further, and tens of millions of people could be plunged into poverty and extreme hunger. He emphasized that the longer this maritime lifeline is blocked, the more difficult it will be to repair the damage in the future.
Iran's strong response: Warning of a "long and painful" strike.
In response to continued military pressure from the United States, Iran made it clear on April 30 that if Washington launches any form of attack again, Iran will launch a "protracted and fierce strike" against US positions in the region.
Majid Mousavi, commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, cited Supreme Leader Khamenei's stance and issued a stern warning to the United States: even if the scale of a US attack is limited, Iran will retaliate with "a long and painful reprisal." He pointedly stated that the US military has already witnessed Iran's ability to strike its regional bases, and that US warships will now face the same fate.
In a written statement to the Iranian people, Supreme Leader Khamenei further reiterated Tehran's absolute sovereignty claim over the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that Iran will thoroughly eliminate "the enemy's improper use of this waterway" under a new management framework, implying that Tehran will continue to firmly control the strait and will not easily concede to external pressure. He further stated in a threatening tone: "Those foreigners who have traveled thousands of kilometers away will have nowhere to go but to sink to the bottom of the sea." This statement undoubtedly adds significant complexity and uncertainty to the US's plan to reopen the strait in conjunction with its allies.
US Military Options and Political Pressure: Trump Faces a Critical Decision
According to a U.S. official, President Trump was scheduled to be briefed on April 30 about a new round of military strikes against Iran. This news, first reported by the news website Axios, initially caused a sharp rise in oil prices. One new proposal in the briefing was to use ground troops to take control of parts of the Strait of Hormuz to forcibly restore normal commercial shipping. In addition, Trump was also considering extending the naval blockade against Iran or unilaterally declaring a U.S. victory in the war.
At the same time, Trump also faces real pressure from domestic political processes. According to the official U.S. deadline, he must either end the war or provide Congress with reasons for extending it by May 1st. While analysts and congressional aides generally expect Trump to either notify Congress of his plan to extend the war by 30 days or simply ignore the deadline altogether, this decision will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the situation in the coming days.
In his public statements, Trump reiterated America's bottom line to reporters—that Iran would never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. He also attempted to calm domestic anxieties about energy prices, emphasizing that gasoline prices would "plummet like rocks" once the war ended. However, Trump's assessment that the Iranian economy was "in ruins" and would soon succumb has been questioned by analysts. They believe that if the White House expects Iran to back down first in the economic standoff, it will likely have to wait a considerable amount of time. Although the conflict has exacerbated Iran's already severe economic problems, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences after the war, Iran currently appears capable of holding out in the Gulf standoff, despite the US blockade cutting off its energy exports.
Regional reactions and diplomatic efforts: The UAE issues a travel ban, and Pakistan mediates.
In response to escalating tensions, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on April 30 a ban on its citizens traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. The UAE cited the latest developments in the region as the reason and strongly urged its citizens currently in these countries to leave immediately and return home. This move reflects the deep concern of Gulf states about the spread of conflict and the deteriorating security situation.
At the international diplomatic level, all parties are still working to ease the crisis. While reiterating accusations of serious human rights abuses by Iran, Trump stated that there was "no problem" with Iran's participation in the upcoming FIFA World Cup in the United States. This statement echoed FIFA President Gianni Infantino's insistence that Iran should participate. Furthermore, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi, after meeting with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Berri, stated that halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon—where a fragile ceasefire is currently maintained—is part of the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the United States and will remain a key issue in any future process. On the other hand, a Pakistani source revealed that as the US and Iran exchange information on a potential agreement, Pakistan, as a mediator, is working to prevent further escalation of the situation.
Summary: The stalemate remains unbroken; the world holds its breath in anticipation.
In conclusion, the current standoff between the US and Iran has reached a dangerous and protracted stalemate. Iran is using the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as its core bargaining chip against a US maritime blockade, while simultaneously issuing stern warnings of military strikes, demonstrating an unwavering stance. The US, on the other hand, faces a dual dilemma: securing vital energy routes while simultaneously seeking a way out under domestic political pressure. Meanwhile, the global energy market is experiencing severe turmoil, the United Nations has issued warnings, regional countries are prioritizing self-preservation, and diplomatic efforts, while continuing, have made limited progress. In the coming days, both Trump's decision regarding the deadline and whether Iran takes further military action will be key variables determining the course of this crisis. The world is holding its breath, watching the ever-changing situation over the Strait of Hormuz.
Frequently Asked Questions
Question 1: Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to the world?
A: The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, connects the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, and is the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transportation. It is estimated that approximately 20% of the world's oil and gas supply passes through this strait. Major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait rely almost entirely on this route for their energy exports. If the strait were blocked, it would be equivalent to cutting off one-fifth of the global energy flow, inevitably leading to soaring oil prices and supply chain disruptions, which would then drive up production costs and living expenses in various countries, and in severe cases, even trigger a global economic recession. This is the fundamental reason why the international community is highly concerned after Iran blocked the strait.
Question 2: What sovereignty claim does Iran base its claim to block the Strait of Hormuz on?
A: Iran believes that the Strait of Hormuz is adjacent to its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, and that Iran enjoys legitimate security and regulatory rights over these waters. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized the need to eliminate "the enemy's improper use of the waterway," meaning that the US and its allies are using the strait to impose an oil export blockade on Iran, threatening its economic lifeline. Therefore, Iran has the right to take countermeasures to restrict the passage of ships from hostile countries. However, under international law, when the strait is used for international navigation, coastal states cannot obstruct the right of "transit passage." The US and most Western countries believe that Iran's blockade violates international law and constitutes an illegal threat to global shipping. There is a fundamental difference in the interpretation of sovereignty and the right of passage between the two sides.
Question 3: Why is the United States considering launching another military strike against Iran?
A: The US's immediate goal is to force Iran to end its blockade through negotiations and restore international passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Deeper reasons include preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (Trump has explicitly stated "absolutely not"), weakening Iran's military influence in the Middle East, and protecting the security of Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Furthermore, soaring oil prices have put pressure on domestic gasoline prices in the US, becoming a key concern for Republicans in the midterm elections, giving the White House a strong political incentive to resolve the crisis as quickly as possible. Military options include airstrikes on Iranian military facilities and the deployment of ground troops to take over parts of the Strait, but any action could trigger a large-scale Iranian retaliation.
Question 4: What specific impacts will the surge in oil prices have on the global economy?
A: Rising oil prices directly increase transportation and industrial production costs, leading to decreased corporate profits and potentially resulting in layoffs or reduced investment. For ordinary people, rising gasoline and diesel prices increase travel costs, while energy expenditures such as heating oil and electricity also rise. Food prices will also increase, as agricultural production and logistics rely on energy. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable; soaring energy import costs could deplete foreign exchange reserves, triggering currency devaluation and debt crises. The UN Secretary-General warned that if lockdowns continue, tens of millions will fall into poverty and extreme hunger, global economic growth will slow significantly, inflation will worsen, and there is a risk of stagflation.
Question 5: Why did the UAE issue an emergency ban on its citizens traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq?
A: The UAE's decision stems directly from the rapidly deteriorating regional security situation. The military conflict between Iran and the US and Israel has lasted for two months. Iran has not only blocked the Strait of Hormuz but has also launched drones and missiles at US military bases in the Gulf states and targets linked to Israel. As a key US ally in the Gulf, the UAE is concerned about potential security threats to its citizens in Iran, Lebanon (where Hezbollah, supported by Iran, is active), and Iraq (where pro-Iranian militias exist), such as detention, accidental injury, or involvement in the conflict. This ban is both a practical measure to protect its citizens and a diplomatic signal demonstrating the UAE's serious dissatisfaction with Iran's actions and its deep concern about the situation spiraling out of control.
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