May 5th Financial Breakfast: US and Iran in a "Mini-War" VS Iran Warns of Attack on US Warship; Gold Price Tests $4500 Mark; Oil Prices Show Strong Bullish Momentum
2026-05-05 06:42:53
On Tuesday (May 5, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,521 per ounce. Gold prices fell 2% on Monday, hitting a low of $4,500.94 per ounce. It may test the $4,500 level during the day as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed up the dollar and exacerbated inflation concerns. Iran intensified its attacks on UAE oil ports and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged nearly 6% on Monday, with Brent crude hitting a new high since the end of March at $115.21 per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 retreating from record highs amid concerns over tensions in the Middle East. A bomb attack on a South Korean cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's assertive control over Middle Eastern oil resources dampened market optimism for strong first-quarter earnings. Energy stocks rose on the latest conflict reports, but the S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 7201.75, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.17% to 25070.67, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.12% to 48946.86.
Analysts point out that the market is at historical highs with limited room for error, and risks remain skewed to the downside. Regarding earnings, S&P 500 companies are expected to see a 28% year-over-year increase in total earnings for the first quarter, but Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for the 14th consecutive quarter.
Among individual stocks, GameStop's proposed acquisition of eBay caused the former to plummet while the latter rose; after Amazon opened its logistics network, FedEx and UPS shares plummeted; Norwegian Cruise Line lowered its annual earnings forecast due to the Middle East conflict pushing up fuel costs, causing its share price to fall.
Gold prices fell 2% on Monday, with spot gold at $4,523.23 per ounce and U.S. gold futures closing down 2.4% at $4,533.30, as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted the dollar and exacerbated inflation concerns.
Iran's attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and its ignition of a UAE oil port caused Brent crude to surge by more than 5%, reinforcing market expectations that central banks will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar made dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
TD Securities strategists said the latest news has reignited inflation concerns and signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates. In other precious metals, spot silver fell 3.2% to $72.95, platinum fell 1.7%, and palladium fell 2.9%. This week, the market will closely watch key economic indicators such as US job openings, the ADP employment report, and April non-farm payroll data.
Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday, with Brent crude futures rising 5.8% to $114.44 a barrel and WTI crude futures rising 4.4% to $106.42 a barrel, influenced by Iran's escalated attacks on UAE oil ports and ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran attacked multiple ships, including South Korean and UAE vessels, and set fire to a UAE oil port within 24 hours, while the U.S. military destroyed six small Iranian boats and intercepted cruise missiles and drones, marking the most serious escalation of the conflict since the ceasefire in early April.
Consulting firm Eurasia Group warned that oil prices will remain above $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, with U.S. gasoline prices potentially reaching $5 a gallon in June. Meanwhile, the UAE, which withdrew from OPEC last week, stated it would produce without restrictions to meet market demand, while OPEC+ announced a third consecutive month of increased production targets, raising daily output by 188,000 barrels in June.
The dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.404 on Monday, while the euro fell 0.2% to $1.1694 and the pound fell 0.3% to $1.35365, weighed down by the Middle East conflict which dampened risk appetite. The yen rose as much as 0.75% to 155.69 during the session, sparking renewed speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene. Sources said Tokyo had bought yen for the first time in two years, potentially spending as much as 5.48 trillion yen.
The U.S. Central Command denied Iranian reports of an attack on U.S. warships, stating that two U.S. Navy destroyers had entered the Gulf to break the blockade.
Analysts point out that as long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains stable, the US dollar will remain stable; however, once a peace agreement is reached, risk appetite will immediately increase and impact the dollar. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates to 4.35%.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 95.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 95.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 4.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 92.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 7.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 86.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 13.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.6%.
The Iranian military claims it fired warning shots at a US destroyer.
The Iranian military issued a statement on the 4th, saying that a US destroyer turned off its radar in the Gulf of Oman that day, attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz. However, after reactivating its radar, it was immediately warned by the Iranian Navy via radio. The Iranian military stated that after the US destroyer ignored the initial warning, the Iranian Navy fired warning shots near the enemy vessel, including cruise missiles, rockets, and drones. (Xinhua)
Trump refused to confirm whether the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was still in effect.
On May 4, local time, US President Trump declined to specify whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained in effect during an interview. When asked if the ceasefire had ended and whether military strikes could resume, Trump stated, "I can't tell you that. If I did, you'd say this guy isn't smart enough to be president." Earlier that day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran attempted to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, it would be "completely destroyed." However, he later stated that from a military perspective, the war with Iran was "basically over." (CCTV News)
US intelligence agencies: Recent fighting has not significantly slowed down Iran's nuclear program.
US intelligence agencies say the recent fighting has not significantly slowed Iran's nuclear program. US officials still assess that if Iran decides to develop nuclear weapons, it will take approximately 9 to 12 months, roughly the same timeframe as last year. Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile is largely intact and its whereabouts are unknown. Experts say this stockpile is a key factor in determining its nuclear weapons timeline.
Iranian officials say the Strait of Hormuz is now completely under their control.
On April 4th local time, a senior Iranian security official stated that the Strait of Hormuz is currently entirely under Iranian control. The message from the Iranian armed forces to the United States is very clear: any advance will make it a target for attack. (CCTV News)
Trump says the US and Iran are in a “mini-war”
On May 4th local time, US President Trump stated at a White House Small Business Summit that the current conflict between the US and Iran constitutes a "war," which he called a "mini-war." Trump said, "They did a poll about a war with Iran and it said only 32% of people support it. I don't like war, not at all." He then added, "As far as we're going on, I call it a 'mini-war.'" It is understood that Trump had previously been advised to avoid using the word "war," and US House Speaker Johnson had also previously stated that the US "is not currently at war." (CCTV News)
Putin decided on a ceasefire from May 8 to 9.
According to a report by RIA Novosti on the evening of May 4th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to announce a ceasefire during the upcoming Victory Day celebrations, which will take effect from May 8th to May 9th. (CCTV International News)
Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would implement a ceasefire starting at midnight on the 6th.
On May 4, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially announced that Ukraine would implement a ceasefire starting at midnight on May 6. Zelenskyy pointed out that Ukraine would strictly adhere to the principle of reciprocal action from the designated time.
Trump claims the U.S. sank seven small Iranian boats.
On May 4th local time, Trump posted on social media that Iran had fired on ships from several unrelated countries, including a South Korean cargo ship, in response to the "Project Freedom" shipping operation. Trump stated, "Perhaps now is the time for South Korea to join the operation." Trump also stated that the US had sunk seven small Iranian vessels. He claimed that, apart from the South Korean cargo ship, no other ships passing through the strait had suffered damage so far. Trump also announced that US Defense Secretary Hergsays would hold a joint press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane on the morning of May 5th. (CCTV News)
Iran releases video of warning shots fired at a US warship.
Iranian state television released a new video on the evening of May 4th, local time, purportingly showing Iran firing warning shots at a US warship to prevent it from entering the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV International News)
The Netherlands will transfer two suspected Hantavirus cases from a cruise ship affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.
The cruise ship operator where Hantavirus cases recently emerged said the Dutch government will attempt to repatriate the two suspected cases still on board for treatment. World Health Organization officials stated on the 4th that the risk to public health from this infection event is low and "there is no need to panic." In a recent statement dated the 3rd, the cruise ship operator, Ocean Expeditions, confirmed a "serious medical incident" on its ship, the "Hundius," resulting in three deaths: two on board and one after disembarking. One person is currently in intensive care in Johannesburg, South Africa, while the two still on board "require urgent medical attention." (Xinhua)
Iranian officials say Iran has not held any negotiations on the nuclear issue.
On April 4th local time, Iranian Parliament National Security Committee spokesman Rezaei announced that during his meeting with Foreign Minister Araqchi, Araqchi stated that Iran is not currently engaged in any negotiations regarding the nuclear issue and is fully prepared to deal with any situation. Rezaei said that Iran is developing a new control mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, which will prohibit hostile vessels from passing through the strait. Rezaei also emphasized the need to support the "resistance front," including Lebanon, and to fully coordinate diplomacy with practical actions. (CCTV News)
The total box office revenue for films in 2026 will exceed 13.5 billion yuan.
According to data from online platforms, as of May 4th, the total box office revenue for 2026 (including pre-sales) exceeded 13.5 billion yuan, with the May Day holiday box office revenue (including pre-sales) exceeding 600 million yuan. As of 3 PM on May 4th, the number of movie screenings during the May Day holiday reached 2.331 million, surpassing the total number of screenings during last year's May Day holiday a day and a half earlier than expected.
stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 retreating from record highs amid concerns over tensions in the Middle East. A bomb attack on a South Korean cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran's assertive control over Middle Eastern oil resources dampened market optimism for strong first-quarter earnings. Energy stocks rose on the latest conflict reports, but the S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 7201.75, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.17% to 25070.67, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.12% to 48946.86.
Analysts point out that the market is at historical highs with limited room for error, and risks remain skewed to the downside. Regarding earnings, S&P 500 companies are expected to see a 28% year-over-year increase in total earnings for the first quarter, but Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for the 14th consecutive quarter.
Among individual stocks, GameStop's proposed acquisition of eBay caused the former to plummet while the latter rose; after Amazon opened its logistics network, FedEx and UPS shares plummeted; Norwegian Cruise Line lowered its annual earnings forecast due to the Middle East conflict pushing up fuel costs, causing its share price to fall.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell 2% on Monday, with spot gold at $4,523.23 per ounce and U.S. gold futures closing down 2.4% at $4,533.30, as escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted the dollar and exacerbated inflation concerns.
Iran's attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and its ignition of a UAE oil port caused Brent crude to surge by more than 5%, reinforcing market expectations that central banks will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar made dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
TD Securities strategists said the latest news has reignited inflation concerns and signaled a hawkish stance on interest rates. In other precious metals, spot silver fell 3.2% to $72.95, platinum fell 1.7%, and palladium fell 2.9%. This week, the market will closely watch key economic indicators such as US job openings, the ADP employment report, and April non-farm payroll data.
oil market
Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday, with Brent crude futures rising 5.8% to $114.44 a barrel and WTI crude futures rising 4.4% to $106.42 a barrel, influenced by Iran's escalated attacks on UAE oil ports and ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran attacked multiple ships, including South Korean and UAE vessels, and set fire to a UAE oil port within 24 hours, while the U.S. military destroyed six small Iranian boats and intercepted cruise missiles and drones, marking the most serious escalation of the conflict since the ceasefire in early April.
Consulting firm Eurasia Group warned that oil prices will remain above $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen, with U.S. gasoline prices potentially reaching $5 a gallon in June. Meanwhile, the UAE, which withdrew from OPEC last week, stated it would produce without restrictions to meet market demand, while OPEC+ announced a third consecutive month of increased production targets, raising daily output by 188,000 barrels in June.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.404 on Monday, while the euro fell 0.2% to $1.1694 and the pound fell 0.3% to $1.35365, weighed down by the Middle East conflict which dampened risk appetite. The yen rose as much as 0.75% to 155.69 during the session, sparking renewed speculation that Japanese authorities might intervene. Sources said Tokyo had bought yen for the first time in two years, potentially spending as much as 5.48 trillion yen.
The U.S. Central Command denied Iranian reports of an attack on U.S. warships, stating that two U.S. Navy destroyers had entered the Gulf to break the blockade.
Analysts point out that as long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains stable, the US dollar will remain stable; however, once a peace agreement is reached, risk appetite will immediately increase and impact the dollar. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates to 4.35%.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 95.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 95.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 4.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 92.2%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 7.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 86.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 13.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.6%.
The Iranian military claims it fired warning shots at a US destroyer.
The Iranian military issued a statement on the 4th, saying that a US destroyer turned off its radar in the Gulf of Oman that day, attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz. However, after reactivating its radar, it was immediately warned by the Iranian Navy via radio. The Iranian military stated that after the US destroyer ignored the initial warning, the Iranian Navy fired warning shots near the enemy vessel, including cruise missiles, rockets, and drones. (Xinhua)
Trump refused to confirm whether the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was still in effect.
On May 4, local time, US President Trump declined to specify whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained in effect during an interview. When asked if the ceasefire had ended and whether military strikes could resume, Trump stated, "I can't tell you that. If I did, you'd say this guy isn't smart enough to be president." Earlier that day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran attempted to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, it would be "completely destroyed." However, he later stated that from a military perspective, the war with Iran was "basically over." (CCTV News)
US intelligence agencies: Recent fighting has not significantly slowed down Iran's nuclear program.
US intelligence agencies say the recent fighting has not significantly slowed Iran's nuclear program. US officials still assess that if Iran decides to develop nuclear weapons, it will take approximately 9 to 12 months, roughly the same timeframe as last year. Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile is largely intact and its whereabouts are unknown. Experts say this stockpile is a key factor in determining its nuclear weapons timeline.
Iranian officials say the Strait of Hormuz is now completely under their control.
On April 4th local time, a senior Iranian security official stated that the Strait of Hormuz is currently entirely under Iranian control. The message from the Iranian armed forces to the United States is very clear: any advance will make it a target for attack. (CCTV News)
Trump says the US and Iran are in a “mini-war”
On May 4th local time, US President Trump stated at a White House Small Business Summit that the current conflict between the US and Iran constitutes a "war," which he called a "mini-war." Trump said, "They did a poll about a war with Iran and it said only 32% of people support it. I don't like war, not at all." He then added, "As far as we're going on, I call it a 'mini-war.'" It is understood that Trump had previously been advised to avoid using the word "war," and US House Speaker Johnson had also previously stated that the US "is not currently at war." (CCTV News)
Putin decided on a ceasefire from May 8 to 9.
According to a report by RIA Novosti on the evening of May 4th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to announce a ceasefire during the upcoming Victory Day celebrations, which will take effect from May 8th to May 9th. (CCTV International News)
Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would implement a ceasefire starting at midnight on the 6th.
On May 4, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially announced that Ukraine would implement a ceasefire starting at midnight on May 6. Zelenskyy pointed out that Ukraine would strictly adhere to the principle of reciprocal action from the designated time.
Trump claims the U.S. sank seven small Iranian boats.
On May 4th local time, Trump posted on social media that Iran had fired on ships from several unrelated countries, including a South Korean cargo ship, in response to the "Project Freedom" shipping operation. Trump stated, "Perhaps now is the time for South Korea to join the operation." Trump also stated that the US had sunk seven small Iranian vessels. He claimed that, apart from the South Korean cargo ship, no other ships passing through the strait had suffered damage so far. Trump also announced that US Defense Secretary Hergsays would hold a joint press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane on the morning of May 5th. (CCTV News)
Iran releases video of warning shots fired at a US warship.
Iranian state television released a new video on the evening of May 4th, local time, purportingly showing Iran firing warning shots at a US warship to prevent it from entering the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV International News)
The Netherlands will transfer two suspected Hantavirus cases from a cruise ship affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.
The cruise ship operator where Hantavirus cases recently emerged said the Dutch government will attempt to repatriate the two suspected cases still on board for treatment. World Health Organization officials stated on the 4th that the risk to public health from this infection event is low and "there is no need to panic." In a recent statement dated the 3rd, the cruise ship operator, Ocean Expeditions, confirmed a "serious medical incident" on its ship, the "Hundius," resulting in three deaths: two on board and one after disembarking. One person is currently in intensive care in Johannesburg, South Africa, while the two still on board "require urgent medical attention." (Xinhua)
Iranian officials say Iran has not held any negotiations on the nuclear issue.
On April 4th local time, Iranian Parliament National Security Committee spokesman Rezaei announced that during his meeting with Foreign Minister Araqchi, Araqchi stated that Iran is not currently engaged in any negotiations regarding the nuclear issue and is fully prepared to deal with any situation. Rezaei said that Iran is developing a new control mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, which will prohibit hostile vessels from passing through the strait. Rezaei also emphasized the need to support the "resistance front," including Lebanon, and to fully coordinate diplomacy with practical actions. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
The total box office revenue for films in 2026 will exceed 13.5 billion yuan.
According to data from online platforms, as of May 4th, the total box office revenue for 2026 (including pre-sales) exceeded 13.5 billion yuan, with the May Day holiday box office revenue (including pre-sales) exceeding 600 million yuan. As of 3 PM on May 4th, the number of movie screenings during the May Day holiday reached 2.331 million, surpassing the total number of screenings during last year's May Day holiday a day and a half earlier than expected.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
