The outbreak of a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran has severely damaged optimism surrounding peace negotiations, plunging global markets into a state of tension and unease.



In the past 48 hours, the hostile situation between the United States and Iran has escalated dramatically, with the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas becoming increasingly intense. The United States proposed a plan to reopen navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, naming it the "Freedom Plan," while Iran bluntly dismissed the plan as the "Stalemate Plan," directly denying the legitimacy of the US action.

The United States announced on Monday that it had sunk several Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz conflict. At the same time, Iran launched another missile and drone attack on the United Arab Emirates. This move is interpreted by the outside world as a direct retaliation by Iran against the US "Freedom Project" and an important means for Iran to break the current deadlock and put pressure on the United States.

In the past 48 hours, the escalating rhetoric from both sides, the military operations around the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's latest attack on the UAE have prompted experts to warn that the previously temporarily quelled conflict may reignite, and the peace situation in the Middle East risks spiraling out of control.

Market analysts say the latest developments could be a major turning point in the conflict, as well as a critical juncture for global financial markets and energy supplies. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely blocked, global energy supplies are shrinking, and the disruption to navigation through the strait, a vital artery for global oil transport, is directly impacting the stable operation of the global energy market.

"This is an extremely delicate moment," said Ben Powell, chief investment strategist for Asia Pacific at BlackRock, on Tuesday. "The missile sirens sounding again in Abu Dhabi after several weeks are very unsettling, and we had all hoped that these days were over."

He analyzed: "Looking ahead, I think there is real complexity in the current situation—was yesterday's escalation of conflict just part of the negotiations—Iran intended to show that it still has cards to play, or perhaps it was also sending a signal to the UAE: even if the UAE withdraws from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the region's energy exports will still depend on Iran's tacit approval; or does this mark the beginning of a more difficult period, which may lead to more intense military confrontation and instability? It is still difficult to judge at present."

He pointed out that the flow of global energy and other key economic sectors has come to a standstill, and the market is gradually approaching a "critical point." Various energy reserves are being depleted, and the lagging effects of the previous energy crisis are becoming increasingly prominent, beginning to have a more direct impact on the global economy.

War clouds resurge: US-Iran standoff escalates, markets continue to be under pressure.

New developments emerged in the Middle East over the weekend, putting global markets on edge in early trading on Tuesday. The United States reportedly launched "Operation Freedom" to break the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz, with the core objective of rescuing ships trapped in the strait and safely escorting them out of this waterway jointly blocked by the US and Iran. The US is attempting to gain control of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz through this action, while simultaneously demonstrating a tough stance towards Iran.

These attempts by the United States have been met with strong resistance from Iran. The US claims that it sank several Iranian ships due to a small-scale conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran vehemently denies that any ships were sunk. This conflicting account further exacerbates the uncertainty and tension in the situation.

Subsequently, Iran attacked the UAE's oil infrastructure with missiles and drones, an action that appears to indicate that Iran has reverted to its previous strategy—pressuring its Middle Eastern neighbors by attacking them, thereby forcing the United States to end the war.
The US's strong counterattack came after major stock indices fell and oil prices rose on Monday. Previously, global stock markets had been pressured down by growing concerns about a potential resurgence of conflict in the Middle East, while international oil prices had risen accordingly. Market panic over geopolitical risks had begun to gradually spread to global financial and energy markets.

Currently, the market is holding its breath awaiting further developments, and a tense situation is highly likely to persist. Geopolitical observers warn that the already fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement is increasingly likely to collapse completely. Once the ceasefire agreement officially expires, the military confrontation between the US and Iran will escalate across the board, having unpredictable impacts on the global situation.

In an analysis report on Tuesday, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Vision, commented, "The key question this week is whether geopolitical risks will remain chaotic but manageable, or whether they will break through current boundaries and have a substantial impact on markets and corporate profits."

She stated, "Given Iran's clear resumption of attacks today on targets within the UAE and on ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, I am currently more inclined to believe the latter—that geopolitical risks will escalate further and have a significant impact on global markets."

Tina Fordham described Iran's resumption of drone and missile attacks on the UAE as "the largest escalation in weeks." She stated that, regardless of whether a peace agreement is reached, Tehran has shown the United States that Iran still possesses the fighting capability and determination to resist U.S. pressure and will not easily succumb to any unequal agreement that harms its own interests.

Fordham points out: "Iran's move is intended to send a clear signal—they still have the capability to inflict substantial damage and will not be forced to surrender. The United States is now increasingly facing a dilemma: either get bogged down in a protracted war it does not want to fight, or accept a bad and embarrassing deal."

Behind the "Stalemate Plan": US-Iran peace talks stalled, adding further uncertainty to the situation.

The latest twist in the Iran war appears to have been triggered by the U.S. announcement on Sunday of the "Freedom Plan," which aims to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This move reflects the White House's growing dissatisfaction with the stalled negotiations for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement. The Pakistan-mediated talks have stalled in recent weeks, with the two sides unable to reach a consensus on key terms of the agreement.

In a Fox News interview on Monday, US President Trump threatened that if Iran attacks US ships that protect merchant vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will be "wiped off the face of the earth."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi commented on the X platform: "As negotiations with Pakistan progress thanks to the latter's positive efforts, the United States should be wary of those with ulterior motives who could drag it back into trouble. The UAE also needs to be vigilant. The 'Freedom Project' is nothing but a doomed project."

He emphasized that the latest developments in the war "clearly demonstrate that political crises cannot be resolved through military means," and called on the U.S. to abandon its hardline military confrontation stance, return to the negotiating table, and resolve differences through peaceful consultation.