Goldman Sachs points out that global oil inventories are currently declining sharply, approaching their lowest level in eight years, and the rate of inventory depletion is far exceeding market expectations, which could easily trigger subsequent sharp fluctuations and price shocks in the crude oil market.



In a research note published by Reuters, Goldman Sachs analysts stated that global oil inventories can cover expected consumption for approximately 101 days, a near eight-year low, significantly compressing the overall supply-demand buffer.

Analysts also warned that due to the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, most global oil tanker routes have been forced to stop, and by the end of May, global oil inventories may be able to cover consumption for 98 days.

This international investment bank believes that although global oil inventories will not plummet to historical lows in the short term, the rapid depletion of total inventories and market supply buffer reserves has become a potential risk that cannot be ignored in the crude oil market.

Analysts wrote in their research report: Although global oil inventories are unlikely to reach the industry's minimum operational safety threshold this summer, the rate of inventory depletion and the widening supply gap in some regions and for certain refined oil products have already raised serious concerns in the market.

According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, refined oil inventories are being depleted more rapidly than crude oil inventories. Before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global fuel inventories could cover 50 days of consumption demand, but now they have shrunk to 45 days.

The bank further emphasized that the market's readily available and readily deployable refined oil buffer inventory is rapidly approaching the extremely low warning line, leaving very limited room for subsequent replenishment and emergency regulation.

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated again, with the United States attempting to guide passing ships away from this vital energy shipping chokepoint, while Iran continues to take targeted actions against passing ships and ports along the coast. The reopening of this key oil trade route, which the market had been hoping for, has been delayed once more, and the already fragile ceasefire agreement is on the verge of collapse.

In a report released Tuesday, ING commodities strategists Warren Paterson and Eva Manteil said that the market has begun to reassess the duration and scope of the oil supply disruptions due to the renewed escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Persian Gulf. As a result, international crude oil and natural gas prices jumped sharply again on Monday, and the valuation logic of the energy market is undergoing a new round of restructuring.