Iranian state media reported on Thursday that Iran is "currently reviewing" a message received from the United States through Pakistani mediators, but has not yet reached a conclusion or responded. Meanwhile, US President Trump predicted the war would "end soon." These conflicting signals from both sides led to volatile market movements—stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday, while stocks turned lower and oil prices rebounded on Thursday afternoon.

Statements from all parties and details of the situation

I. Iran: Still under review, no response yet.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagai stated that Tehran is reviewing the US proposal but has not yet reached a conclusion. The previous day, Axios and other media outlets reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching a 14-point memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and paving the way for subsequent nuclear negotiations. Senior official Rezaei emphasized that any outcome of the negotiations must bring "tangible benefits" to Iran, not "empty gestures," and stated that Iran will not allow the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with "unrealistic plans."

II. Trump: Iran "very eager to reach a deal," the war "will be over soon."

Trump said at the White House on Wednesday that Iran "really wants a deal, and we'll see if they can come up with something that satisfies us." According to CBS News, Trump further predicted at an event that evening that the war would be "over soon."

III. Strait of Hormuz: The Situation is Unpredictable <br/>The Saudi Factor: NBC reported that Trump abruptly suspended the "Freedom Program" (a military operation to guide merchant ships out of the Persian Gulf) on Tuesday because Saudi Arabia was angry about it and suspended the use of US military bases and airspace.

Latest twist: The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted the restrictions, and the Trump administration is considering restarting the action in the coming days.

Market reaction: Back-and-forth tug-of-war

Stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday as markets remained optimistic about peace talks. However, stocks turned lower and oil prices rebounded in the afternoon of Thursday, indicating uncertainty about further developments and a shift in market sentiment towards caution.

The prospects for peace talks remain unclear, with the situation in the Taiwan Strait becoming a key variable.

The US-Iran peace talks present a contradictory picture of "optimistic predictions" and "cautious deliberations." Trump has made a high-profile prediction that the war will "end soon," but Iran is still deliberating and demanding "tangible benefits," and military operations in the Strait of Hormuz are being considered for resumption after a brief halt by Saudi Arabia. In this diplomatic and military tug-of-war, whether shipping through the Strait can truly resume remains a core variable in determining the direction of oil prices and risk assets.

According to Everbright Futures' calculations, if Persian Gulf production only recovers to 70% by mid-year, it will result in a total loss of 183 million barrels of oil supply, and the decline in inventories may continue until May or even longer.

Fangzheng CIFCO Futures stated that the current situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and short-term news continues to disrupt oil prices. "The direction is unclear, making it difficult to trade. We suggest observing more and trading less."

Analysts at Huawen Futures pointed out that the struggle between the US and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz continues. Although the possibility of another large-scale conflict is small, the risk of ongoing friction remains.

Goldman Sachs warns that global oil inventories are near their lowest levels in the past eight years, and the tight supply situation has not fundamentally changed.