Europe bypasses Iran's attempt to "co-opt" the Taliban, creating a new variable in the US-Iran chess game.
2026-05-12 20:08:49
On May 12, 2026, a United Nations report once again drew the world's attention back to the land known as the "graveyard of empires".
Since the US withdrawal in that chaotic summer of 2021, Afghanistan has not experienced the expected tranquility, but has instead fallen into a political soap opera that is more absurd and complex than the wartime period.
When the Taliban (Afghanistan) were still guerrillas, Pakistan was considered their biggest "parent" behind the scenes.
However, by 2026, this "gratitude for raising" had long since vanished.
Since the end of 2024, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have gone from undercurrents to an "open war."
Pakistan was furious to discover that its support for Atta's power grab had backfired, as Atta turned around and sheltered the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which was attempting to overthrow the Pakistani government.
Tragedy in the first quarter of 2026: The latest UN data shows that in just three months, cross-border fighting between the two sides has resulted in the deaths of 372 civilians.
Iran initially held a geopolitical advantage in this chaos.
Severe water shortages in eastern Iran are a major obstacle between the two countries, as Iran is heavily reliant on the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Iran is a major Shia country, while Afghanistan is Sunni, and there have been many serious religious conflicts in the past.
However, Iran has consistently tried to play the role of a "peacemaker" and "broker" in the Afghan issue, hoping to increase its leverage with the West by controlling the Taliban.
However, in 2026, Europeans bypassed Iran and went directly to Kabul. European diplomats even began talking to Taliban officials who had been on the terrorist attack list about counterterrorism and refugee interception in their Kabul offices.
This "pragmatic diplomacy" has left Iran feeling neglected and has further fragmented the balance of power around Afghanistan.
European countries (especially EU countries suffering from the refugee crisis) realized that instead of relying on unstable Iran to act as a go-between, it would be better to directly "give money and food" to the Taliban.
In light of the recent US crackdown on Iran's proxy chains, Europe may also be trying to take this opportunity to win over Afghanistan in order to help the US contain Iran.
For the Afghan Taliban, "conquering the country" is easy, but "ruling the country" is difficult.
Warriors who once carried RPGs through valleys now have to deal with computer spreadsheets and complex border diplomatic agreements.
They were surprised to find that their former ally (Pakistan) had become the most ruthless initiator of airstrikes;
The former mortal enemy (the US military) left behind not only a mess, but also a completely broken financial system.
Interestingly, in Afghanistan, the "puppet government" that the United States had supported for 20 years and spent $2 trillion on completely "evaporated" in less than a month when the US military withdrew in 2021.
Despite the ceasefire agreement signed in April 2026 with Chinese mediation, as the report on May 12 showed, gunfire still echoed on university campuses in Kunar province.
The Taliban is trying to find a balance between "jihadist ideology" and "modern state governance," but finds itself caught between Pakistan's heavy artillery and the backstabbing of the domestic radical group ISIS-K.
The intense conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed states, especially given Pakistan's crucial role in recent US-Iran negotiations, means that Pakistan's domestic instability could also impact the progress of these negotiations.
Meanwhile, direct dialogue between European diplomats and the Taliban may also allow them to gather important information about Iran, which could then be provided to the United States to make it appear as if they are not completely withholding support from the US.
However, if Europe obtains and controls materials detrimental to Iran during its recent communications with the Taliban, and cooperates with the United States to pressure Iran, it could prompt Iran to accelerate the peace talks process.
Technical Analysis: Spot gold remains capped at 4743, while support lies at the lower trendline of the descending channel. The current gold price correction is still driven by the US's increasingly hardline stance on Iran. For details, please refer to my article on crude oil published today. The trading logic of finding buying opportunities when bearish news emerges can still be followed.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 20:03 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,705 per ounce.
Since the US withdrawal in that chaotic summer of 2021, Afghanistan has not experienced the expected tranquility, but has instead fallen into a political soap opera that is more absurd and complex than the wartime period.
Neighborhood Feud: Pakistan's "Boomerang"
When the Taliban (Afghanistan) were still guerrillas, Pakistan was considered their biggest "parent" behind the scenes.
However, by 2026, this "gratitude for raising" had long since vanished.
Since the end of 2024, relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have gone from undercurrents to an "open war."
Pakistan was furious to discover that its support for Atta's power grab had backfired, as Atta turned around and sheltered the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which was attempting to overthrow the Pakistani government.
Tragedy in the first quarter of 2026: The latest UN data shows that in just three months, cross-border fighting between the two sides has resulted in the deaths of 372 civilians.
Enemy of my enemy: Europe's proxy war with Iran
Iran initially held a geopolitical advantage in this chaos.
Severe water shortages in eastern Iran are a major obstacle between the two countries, as Iran is heavily reliant on the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, Iran is a major Shia country, while Afghanistan is Sunni, and there have been many serious religious conflicts in the past.
However, Iran has consistently tried to play the role of a "peacemaker" and "broker" in the Afghan issue, hoping to increase its leverage with the West by controlling the Taliban.
However, in 2026, Europeans bypassed Iran and went directly to Kabul. European diplomats even began talking to Taliban officials who had been on the terrorist attack list about counterterrorism and refugee interception in their Kabul offices.
This "pragmatic diplomacy" has left Iran feeling neglected and has further fragmented the balance of power around Afghanistan.
European countries (especially EU countries suffering from the refugee crisis) realized that instead of relying on unstable Iran to act as a go-between, it would be better to directly "give money and food" to the Taliban.
In light of the recent US crackdown on Iran's proxy chains, Europe may also be trying to take this opportunity to win over Afghanistan in order to help the US contain Iran.
The "struggle" in the office: The governance black hole of the guerrilla team
For the Afghan Taliban, "conquering the country" is easy, but "ruling the country" is difficult.
Warriors who once carried RPGs through valleys now have to deal with computer spreadsheets and complex border diplomatic agreements.
They were surprised to find that their former ally (Pakistan) had become the most ruthless initiator of airstrikes;
The former mortal enemy (the US military) left behind not only a mess, but also a completely broken financial system.
Interestingly, in Afghanistan, the "puppet government" that the United States had supported for 20 years and spent $2 trillion on completely "evaporated" in less than a month when the US military withdrew in 2021.
Despite the ceasefire agreement signed in April 2026 with Chinese mediation, as the report on May 12 showed, gunfire still echoed on university campuses in Kunar province.
The Taliban is trying to find a balance between "jihadist ideology" and "modern state governance," but finds itself caught between Pakistan's heavy artillery and the backstabbing of the domestic radical group ISIS-K.
Interconnected Situations: Global Risk Aversion and Gold
The intense conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed states, especially given Pakistan's crucial role in recent US-Iran negotiations, means that Pakistan's domestic instability could also impact the progress of these negotiations.
Meanwhile, direct dialogue between European diplomats and the Taliban may also allow them to gather important information about Iran, which could then be provided to the United States to make it appear as if they are not completely withholding support from the US.
However, if Europe obtains and controls materials detrimental to Iran during its recent communications with the Taliban, and cooperates with the United States to pressure Iran, it could prompt Iran to accelerate the peace talks process.
Technical Analysis: Spot gold remains capped at 4743, while support lies at the lower trendline of the descending channel. The current gold price correction is still driven by the US's increasingly hardline stance on Iran. For details, please refer to my article on crude oil published today. The trading logic of finding buying opportunities when bearish news emerges can still be followed.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 20:03 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,705 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
