Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-05-12 22:01:31
[Russia Sharply Lowers Oil and Gas Production and Export Forecasts for 2026-2029; Crude Oil Production Cut to 511 Million Tons in Baseline Scenario] ⑴ The Russian Ministry of Economy on Tuesday sharply lowered several oil and gas forecasts for the next three years, including crude oil and natural gas production and exports, in a baseline scenario. This downward revision reflects factors such as sanctions, drone attacks, and a weak economy. Oil and gas tax revenue accounts for about a quarter of the federal budget, and Russia taxes oil production rather than exports. ⑵ In the baseline scenario, the 2026 crude oil and condensate production forecast was lowered to 511 million tons from the previous 525.2 million tons, equivalent to approximately 10.22 million barrels per day, roughly the same as the 2025 production. The outlook for subsequent years was also lowered. This year's crude oil export forecast was lowered by 4.5 million tons to 237.2 million tons, and next year's forecast was lowered by 16.5 million tons to 227.4 million tons. (3) In a pessimistic scenario, commodity prices are expected to be even lower, with oil production falling to 497.2 million tons this year and 502.2 million tons next year. Under this scenario, crude oil exports are projected to fall to 223.6 million tons this year and 213.8 million tons next year, and are not expected to exceed 2025 levels by 2029. (4) Although Urals crude oil prices surged to over $100 after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Iran-Iraq War, the Russian Ministry of Economy maintains its forecast for flagship Urals crude oil prices at $59 per barrel this year. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that given weak economic growth in Asia, global oil prices may fall, global demand may decline in the medium term, and prices may even fall below pre-conflict levels.
