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2026-05-12 22:08:30
[Russian Ministry of Economic Development Lowers Oil Production and Export Forecasts for the Next Few Years] Russia's Ministry of Economic Development announced on Monday that it has lowered several oil and gas-related forecasts for the next three years in its baseline scenario, including crude oil and gas production and export volumes. This follows previous reports that the Russian energy sector is facing multiple pressures, including Western sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, factors that led to a decline in crude oil production in early April. Oil and gas taxes account for about a quarter of Russia's federal budget revenue, and Russia taxes oil based on production volume, not export volume. This downward revision of the energy outlook is also reflected in the downward revision of overall economic forecasts. The Ministry of Economic Development stated that, under the baseline scenario, Russia's oil production forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 14.2 million tons to 511 million tons, and the forecast for 2027 has been lowered by 16.6 million tons to 516 million tons; the oil export forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 4.5 million tons to 237.2 million tons, and the forecast for 2027 has been lowered by 16.5 million tons to 227.4 million tons.
