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2026-05-18 20:15:22
[IMF Raises UK Growth Forecast to 1.0% This Year, Warns Political Turmoil May Drag Down Economy] (1) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for UK economic growth in 2026 to 1.0%, but warned that current political turmoil could further impact consumption and investment; this growth rate is still lower than the 2025 level. (2) The IMF pointed out that the upward revision stems from pre-war economic momentum, including recent stronger-than-expected growth and revisions to previous data; the Middle East war is weakening the UK's near-term prospects. (3) Regarding inflation, it is expected to rise to slightly below 4% by the end of the year. If energy prices fall as expected, the Bank of England can reduce inflation to 2% by the end of 2027 without raising interest rates; however, the Iranian conflict brings uncertainty, and if the second-round effect is stronger than expected, the central bank may need to cut or raise interest rates and should be prepared to respond decisively.
