Has the turning point in the Middle East situation arrived, and is a rebound opportunity for gold imminent?
2026-05-21 17:38:36
On Thursday (May 21), during the Asian and European sessions, spot gold experienced a slight fluctuation, rising and falling back before rebounding. It is currently trading around 4538, still holding the 4500 mark. Amid the tug-of-war between various geopolitical forces, the global geopolitical landscape is approaching a critical turning point.
Recent developments surrounding the US-Iran peace talks, the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel's statements are not only directly influencing the direction of the situation in the Middle East, but are also injecting new volatility catalysts into the international gold market.
Latest news indicates that diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran are sending the strongest signals of détente in recent years.
According to foreign media reports, former US President Trump's advisors are exerting pressure to push for an agreement with Iran.
Currently, the mediators Qatar and Pakistan have prepared a revised peace memorandum.
The US has submitted a draft text to Iran (including a “letter of intent” aimed at formally ending the war and initiating 30 days of negotiations), and the Islamic Republic News Agency (ISNA) of Iran has publicly confirmed that Iran is “responding to the US draft text.”
In addition, the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff visited Tehran, aiming to further narrow the differences between the two sides and promote the conclusion of a formal agreement statement. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the 20 Iranian crew members previously detained by the US have been released and returned home.
All indications suggest that a comprehensive ceasefire or a new phase-one agreement between the US and Iran is drawing ever closer.
As the "throat" of global oil transportation, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz has always been a barometer of tensions in the Middle East.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy recently announced that 26 ships, including oil tankers and container ships, successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours under coordinated arrangements.
Iran added that passage through the Strait will continue as long as the relevant permits are obtained and coordination with the Revolutionary Guard is completed.
Compared to the previously tense expectations of a blockade, the continued improvement in the situation of passage through the strait has significantly reduced market panic about global supply chain disruptions and soaring energy prices. The resulting drop in oil prices is an important factor that directly affects inflation expectations.
Despite the initial glimmer of peace, divisions within the US-Israel alliance are making the negotiations even more unpredictable.
According to Axios, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is "extremely skeptical" of the current negotiations and strongly desires to resume military operations.
Trump and Netanyahu had a “tense and difficult” phone call, after which Netanyahu expressed deep concern, directly exposing the serious differences between the two leaders on the next steps toward Iran.
Prior to this, there had been speculation that Washington would succumb to Israel's lobbying on the Iranian issue. However, Netanyahu's strong opposition and anxiety have ironically proven that the US-Iran peace talks are in a very serious and substantive stage—the US is trying to bypass some of Israel's tough demands and seek a political compromise with Iran.
Whether oil prices can fall in an orderly manner is a key factor influencing current inflation expectations, which in turn affect real interest rates and thus gold prices.
Whether the US will ease economic and nuclear security sanctions against Iran in the subsequent peace talks, and whether it will tacitly allow Iran to retain a certain level of low-abundance nuclear technology.
Meanwhile, is Iran willing to make substantial nuclear compromises (such as limiting uranium enrichment activities and accepting stricter international supervision) in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets?
If both sides make substantial concessions on the nuclear issue and the US and Iran reach a comprehensive agreement, expectations for rising oil prices and inflation will decline, and gold prices will have a chance to rebound.
Technical Analysis: Gold prices are currently in a downtrend. Today, gold prices rose above the 5-day moving average. The next step is to observe whether it can break through the middle line of the downtrend channel. If it can break through and hold, gold may reverse its trend and potentially shift from a short-term downtrend to a sideways or even upward trend. Currently, market momentum will still lead to gold's price movement being influenced by short-selling on rallies.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyForex subsidiary)
At 17:26 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,535 per ounce.
Recent developments surrounding the US-Iran peace talks, the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and Israel's statements are not only directly influencing the direction of the situation in the Middle East, but are also injecting new volatility catalysts into the international gold market.
US-Iran peace talks enter deeper phase: Armistice agreement draws closer
Latest news indicates that diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran are sending the strongest signals of détente in recent years.
According to foreign media reports, former US President Trump's advisors are exerting pressure to push for an agreement with Iran.
Currently, the mediators Qatar and Pakistan have prepared a revised peace memorandum.
The US has submitted a draft text to Iran (including a “letter of intent” aimed at formally ending the war and initiating 30 days of negotiations), and the Islamic Republic News Agency (ISNA) of Iran has publicly confirmed that Iran is “responding to the US draft text.”
In addition, the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff visited Tehran, aiming to further narrow the differences between the two sides and promote the conclusion of a formal agreement statement. As diplomatic efforts intensify, the 20 Iranian crew members previously detained by the US have been released and returned home.
All indications suggest that a comprehensive ceasefire or a new phase-one agreement between the US and Iran is drawing ever closer.
Improved navigation in the Strait of Hormuz: Energy crisis alert temporarily eased
As the "throat" of global oil transportation, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz has always been a barometer of tensions in the Middle East.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy recently announced that 26 ships, including oil tankers and container ships, successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours under coordinated arrangements.
Iran added that passage through the Strait will continue as long as the relevant permits are obtained and coordination with the Revolutionary Guard is completed.
Compared to the previously tense expectations of a blockade, the continued improvement in the situation of passage through the strait has significantly reduced market panic about global supply chain disruptions and soaring energy prices. The resulting drop in oil prices is an important factor that directly affects inflation expectations.
Netanyahu's phone call with Trump: a tacit confirmation of the authenticity of the peace talks process.
Despite the initial glimmer of peace, divisions within the US-Israel alliance are making the negotiations even more unpredictable.
According to Axios, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is "extremely skeptical" of the current negotiations and strongly desires to resume military operations.
Trump and Netanyahu had a “tense and difficult” phone call, after which Netanyahu expressed deep concern, directly exposing the serious differences between the two leaders on the next steps toward Iran.
Prior to this, there had been speculation that Washington would succumb to Israel's lobbying on the Iranian issue. However, Netanyahu's strong opposition and anxiety have ironically proven that the US-Iran peace talks are in a very serious and substantive stage—the US is trying to bypass some of Israel's tough demands and seek a political compromise with Iran.
Summary and Technical Analysis:
Whether oil prices can fall in an orderly manner is a key factor influencing current inflation expectations, which in turn affect real interest rates and thus gold prices.
Whether the US will ease economic and nuclear security sanctions against Iran in the subsequent peace talks, and whether it will tacitly allow Iran to retain a certain level of low-abundance nuclear technology.
Meanwhile, is Iran willing to make substantial nuclear compromises (such as limiting uranium enrichment activities and accepting stricter international supervision) in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets?
If both sides make substantial concessions on the nuclear issue and the US and Iran reach a comprehensive agreement, expectations for rising oil prices and inflation will decline, and gold prices will have a chance to rebound.
Technical Analysis: Gold prices are currently in a downtrend. Today, gold prices rose above the 5-day moving average. The next step is to observe whether it can break through the middle line of the downtrend channel. If it can break through and hold, gold may reverse its trend and potentially shift from a short-term downtrend to a sideways or even upward trend. Currently, market momentum will still lead to gold's price movement being influenced by short-selling on rallies.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: EasyForex subsidiary)
At 17:26 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,535 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
