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2026-05-22 20:51:23
[Caixin Futures: Most Non-ferrous and New Energy Commodities Fluctuate, Lithium Carbonate Supply Loosening Expectations Strengthen] ⑴ In the non-ferrous and new energy commodities sector, copper, aluminum, zinc, and precious metals all fluctuated, with lithium carbonate mainly fluctuating. ⑵ On the macro front, Iran and the United States continued dialogue on the 22nd local time under Pakistani mediation, and the US-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain. On the supply side, domestic supply has decreased due to concentrated maintenance at smelting plants, and imported supply is limited, resulting in an overall tight market supply. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile. ⑶ In the aluminum sector, overseas supply gaps and low inventories continue to provide bottom support, while the unexpected accumulation of domestic inventories will continue, dragging down domestic aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑷ In the zinc sector, mining disruptions have led to persistently low overseas processing fees, resulting in extremely low smelter production intentions and strong expectations of supply contraction, providing bottom support. Despite the fundamentals providing bottom support, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, suppressed by rising expectations of a Fed rate hike. (5) Regarding precious metals, the seesaw effect between crude oil and precious metals persists, and the US-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain. Precious metals are likely to trade in a volatile range in the short term. Although the US-Iran conflict shows signs of easing, the prospect of a Fed rate hike is strengthening, and gold and silver prices are unlikely to improve significantly. (6) Regarding lithium carbonate, overseas supply disruptions are nearing their end, with a rebound in volume. Customs data shows that my country imported 32,650.36 tons of lithium carbonate in April 2026, an increase of 8.93% month-on-month and 15.23% year-on-year. Chile accounted for 65% and Argentina for 29%, with imports from both countries showing a significant month-on-month increase, indicating a continued strengthening of expectations for a looser supply. Spot battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2,000 yuan to 178,250 yuan/ton.
