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[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil Fluctuates at High Levels, Fuel Oil and Asphalt Show Stronger Trends, Glass and Soda Ash Trade at Low Levels] ⑴ In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil and methanol fluctuated at high levels, fuel oil and asphalt fluctuated with a stronger trend, glass and soda ash fluctuated at low levels, and caustic soda fluctuated with a bearish bias. ⑵ Regarding crude oil, stimulated by Middle Eastern media reports that the US and Iran had reached a final draft agreement, international crude oil prices experienced a sharp drop during the US afternoon session yesterday, triggering concerns about geopolitical easing, but this was subsequently debunked as fake news. News reports indicated that three very large crude carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US Energy Information Administration reported a significant decrease in crude oil and gasoline inventories, with tight supply and expectations of the Strait's passage influencing market movements. In the short term, with increased statements from both sides and volatile news, crude oil is expected to fluctuate at high levels; light trading within the range is recommended. ⑶ Regarding fuel oil, during the US-Iran conflict, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries, while China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil. The US-Iran negotiations have stalled, and recent Russian fuel oil exports have also been disrupted. On the demand side, fuel oil demand for power generation is in its peak season, and increased ship rerouting increases demand for marine fuel, resulting in a relatively good fuel oil fundamental. However, shipping data shows three supertankers passing through the strait, which is marginally bearish. Short-term long positions are gradually being closed out for profit, and a range-bound market is expected. (4) Regarding asphalt, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Rainfall has somewhat hampered immediate demand, but cost support is strong. Refineries are operating at a loss, resulting in low operating rates and a continued tightening of supply. (5) Regarding glass, the North China market is basically stable with moderate transactions. Downstream buyers are cautious, mainly purchasing on dips. The current daily output of the industry is 145,100 tons. This week, upstream inventory increased by 44,000 weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 12.82%. In terms of market news, Hubei held a special meeting on the rectification of issues raised by the central government in the flat glass industry, which may involve the conversion of petroleum coke production lines to natural gas feedstock. Low supply provides some support for prices, while rising energy prices have driven up costs. However, expectations remain weak, and medium-term supply and demand pressures persist. A wide-range, low-level fluctuation is expected in the near future. (6) Regarding soda ash, the domestic market is stabilizing, with prices fluctuating narrowly and remaining relatively firm. Some companies are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in output. Today, the soda ash capacity utilization rate is 76.93%. On Thursday, total domestic soda ash inventories were 1.776 million tons, a decrease of 19,300 tons from Monday, a drop of 1.08%. Current futures and spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-60, Shahe delivered 09-30 to 40, Inner Mongolia factory delivery 09-310 to 350. Medium-term capacity expansion is significant, and the overall market is bearish. Considering the recent strengthening of news in the downstream glass industry, soda ash may follow suit slightly, but intraday volatility is expected to be high. A range-bound trading strategy is recommended, with opportunities to buy the glass-soda ash spread on dips.