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2026-05-25 10:24:47
[US-Iran negotiations make progress, the US dollar index opens lower and falls to a one-week low, and risk currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar benefit] (1) The US dollar opened lower in early Asian trading on Monday, falling as much as 0.38% to 98.95, close to a one-week low, as the market hoped that the US and Iran would reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices once fell by 6% and broke below the $100 mark to $97.66 per barrel, which partially eased concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes. The safe-haven demand for the US dollar also weakened. However, the Trump administration had previously downplayed the hope of reaching an agreement with Iran soon. Currently, the decline in oil prices has narrowed, and Brent crude oil has slightly rebounded to around $99.09 per barrel. (2) US President Trump said on Saturday that a memorandum of understanding on reaching a peace agreement with Iran has been "basically agreed." At the same time, the US, Iran and the parties mediating in Pakistan all reported that the negotiations had made progress. Trump posted again on Sunday that the US blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz will "remain fully effective and continue to be enforced until an agreement is reached, confirmed and signed." The Iranian government has not yet responded immediately. Hopes for a lasting peace agreement remain fragile over the weekend. (3) Non-US currencies generally gapped up, with the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar leading the gains, both opening about 0.4% higher. As of 10:20, the Australian dollar rose 0.66% to US$0.7172 and the New Zealand dollar rose 0.62% to US$0.5881. The US dollar fell 0.27% to 158.75 yen against the Japanese yen; the euro rose 0.43% to US$1.1648 against the US dollar, reversing the decline of the previous two trading days; the pound sterling rose to a new high of nearly 7 trading days to US$1.3489 against the US dollar, and is currently up 0.36% to US$1.3480. (4) Westpac analysts wrote in a research report: "There are initial signs that risk appetite remains supported, with early trading in Sydney showing a broad sell-off in the US dollar, which benefited 'riskier' currencies such as the Australian dollar." (5) Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne, said: "The market is used to being extremely patient with substantial breakthroughs, but an agreement remains the basic expectation, and the weekend news further strengthened this confidence, although the specific timing is still unclear."
