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[This Week's Preview: Focus on US PCE, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision, and Middle East Situation] 1. In the coming week, with trading hours shortened due to the US Memorial Day holiday, market focus will be on the US April core personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision, and the latest developments in the US-Iran situation. 2. US markets will be closed on Monday (May 25) for a holiday. The April PCE price index, released on Thursday, will be the most significant economic data of the week—a key reference indicator for the Federal Reserve to measure inflationary pressures, coinciding with Kevin Warsh's formal appointment as the new Fed chairman amid escalating price pressures. In addition, the US will also release consumer confidence, revised Q1 GDP figures, April durable goods orders, personal income and spending, new home sales, and initial jobless claims data this week. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and New York Fed President John Williams will each deliver public speeches. 3. Regarding the Middle East situation, US-Iran peace talks are at a critical crossroads. Market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have fluctuated, with conflicting signals from Trump and Iranian officials. Analysts point out that if there is a substantial breakthrough in the negotiations, oil prices may fall further, alleviating market concerns about runaway inflation; conversely, if negotiations stall again, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, the US dollar is expected to receive further support, and oil prices will return to an upward trend. 4. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday (May 27), with the market widely expecting the official cash rate to remain unchanged at 2.25%. Investors will closely watch whether the policy statement shows a hawkish shift in its description of inflation and economic growth. Westpac Bank predicts that the New Zealand official cash rate may climb to around 3% by the end of 2026 due to the energy shock caused by the war with Iran. The Australian April CPI data, released on the same day, will also test market expectations for a steep interest rate hike path by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Surveys show that economists expect Australia's April inflation rate to accelerate further to 4.8% from 4.6% in March, which will provide additional support for the Australian dollar. 5. In Japan, the May core CPI in Tokyo, the April unemployment rate, industrial production, and retail sales data will be released this week. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver the opening address at the central bank-IMES conference on Wednesday. The market is focused on whether the Tokyo CPI will show signs of acceleration to alleviate concerns that a continued weakening of the yen could trigger a new round of intervention.