Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-05-25 11:09:14
[India's Increased Gold Tariffs Fail to Alleviate External Pressure; High Oil Prices May Cause Current Account Deficit to Exceed 2%] (1) India has curbed gold imports by raising tariffs and tightening import regulations, but this may not be enough to alleviate external pressure. Emkay Global warns that if Brent crude oil remains above $100/barrel, the current account deficit (CAD) in fiscal year 2026-27 may expand to more than 2% of GDP (its baseline forecast is 1.7%, corresponding to an oil price of $80/barrel). (2) Barclays is also concerned about India's balance of payments, pointing out that high international gold prices may weaken the effects of measures such as raising gold import tariffs (from 6% to 15%); at the same time, it suggests paying attention to the narrowing of the capital account surplus, such as allowing state-owned banks to issue foreign currency bonds and unifying the withholding tax rate for foreign capital inflows. (3) Industry expert Daga said that under high gold prices, consumers may turn to lightweight jewelry, trade-ins, or gemstone-encrusted products, but India's gold demand is driven by weddings, festivals, and long-term value preservation, and the potential demand remains solid.
