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2026-05-25 19:22:10
[Global Attention Turns to South America: Record Production in Argentina and Brazil Reshapes Agricultural Market Landscape] ⑴ International agricultural commodity markets experienced significant volatility last week. July contracts for corn, soybeans, and wheat on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange all closed higher, driven by technical buying, demand expectations, and international geopolitical uncertainties. A USDA report showed that winter wheat conditions were deteriorating, but planting progress remained faster than historical averages. ⑵ South America has once again become the focus of the global market. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised its 2025/26 corn production forecast to a record 64 million tons and soybean production to 50.1 million tons. The Argentine government also announced a gradual reduction in export tariffs on various crops, including soybeans, corn, and wheat. ⑶ Brazil continues to consolidate its leading position in global soybeans. Abiove raised its production forecast to 180.1 million tons, with ending stocks reaching a near-decade high. Brazil has solidified its position as a major supplier to China thanks to cost competitiveness, improved logistics, and ample export supplies. (4) Concerns about a lack of rainfall and high temperatures in Europe in the coming weeks have led MARS services to lower yield forecasts for wheat, barley, corn, and rapeseed. Meanwhile, investor funds still hold historically high net long positions in multiple agricultural commodity markets, posing a potential risk of price correction.
