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2026-05-25 22:25:54
[Multiple Factors Driving the Surge in Natural Rubber Prices] Natural rubber prices have been rising steadily this year, reaching a near two-year high. Currently, spot prices are between 17,500 and 17,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton from the beginning of 2026, representing a rise of approximately 14%. Futures prices are at 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 11% compared to the beginning of the year. Analysts point out that the reasons for this round of natural rubber price increases are as follows: From the supply side, firstly, there is a structural shortage of natural rubber globally. According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, global demand for natural rubber is projected to climb to 15.602 million tons in 2026, while production is expected to be only 15.324 million tons, resulting in a significant supply-demand gap. Secondly, there are expectations of disruptions from extreme weather. The National Climate Center predicts that El Niño will begin in May this year, and major natural rubber producing areas will face the risk of reduced production due to high temperatures and drought, further exacerbating market concerns about tightening supply. From the demand side, the global automotive industry is expected to experience a moderate recovery in 2026, with continued growth in my country's new energy vehicle production and sales. Demand for tire replacement and exports in Europe and the US is rebounding, coupled with accelerated consumption in emerging markets such as Africa. This stable downstream demand for natural rubber provides solid support for prices. Furthermore, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are pushing up international oil prices, which directly drives up synthetic rubber prices, indirectly supporting natural rubber prices. (CCTV Finance)
