May 26th Financial Breakfast: Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement weaken the dollar, supporting gold prices; US oil dips below the $90 mark; caution is warranted regarding the risk of renewed fighting during negotiations.
2026-05-26 07:30:28
On Tuesday (May 26, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,575 per ounce. Gold prices benefited on Monday from a weaker dollar and market hopes for a peace agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict. US crude oil fell nearly 6%, trading around $90.90 per barrel. On Monday, it briefly fell below $90 per barrel to a low of $89.40 per barrel. Although both Washington and Tehran downplayed expectations of an imminent breakthrough, progress has been made on a ceasefire memorandum of understanding, giving negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement. The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen to navigation.
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday as the dollar weakened and markets held hopes for a peace deal to end the war with Iran. Spot gold rose 1.42% to $4,570.69 an ounce.
Despite both the US and Iran downplaying the possibility of a near-term agreement, market sentiment remains optimistic. Falling oil prices and a weaker dollar have eased concerns about persistently high inflation and interest rates, with traders pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, a stark contrast to pre-conflict expectations of rate cuts. Furthermore, new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh was sworn in last Friday, facing the economic challenge of inflation driven by the Middle East conflict. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium also all recorded gains.
Oil prices plunged nearly 7% on Monday, with Brent crude closing at $96.18 a barrel and WTI crude at $90.30, mainly due to market optimism that the United States and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement to end the three-month war and that the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen to navigation.
Although both Washington and Tehran downplayed expectations of an imminent breakthrough, progress has been made on a ceasefire memorandum of understanding, giving negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement. Analysts point out that even with an agreement, repairs to damaged oil and gas facilities and the restoration of normal shipping through the Straits will still take several months. The current crude oil supply gap of 10 to 11 million barrels per day will not disappear immediately, and the market will continue to deplete inventories. Trading was thin due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States.
The dollar fell against major currencies on Monday, with the dollar index down 0.35% to 98.98, despite both the US and Iran downplaying the possibility of a near-term agreement. Market liquidity was reduced as many countries were closed for holidays on Monday.
The US dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 158.91 yen; the euro rose 0.33% against the dollar to 1.1641 dollars; the pound rose 0.55% against the dollar to 1.3499 dollars; and the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% and 0.5% against the dollar, respectively.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan will increase its reserves by an additional $19 billion to subsidize fuel costs and pledged not to incur new debt.
Regarding the US-Iran agreement, US Secretary of State Rubio stated that either a good agreement should be reached or Iran should be dealt with "another way." The Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that many issues in the memorandum of understanding have been concluded but have not yet been signed.
US President Trump posted on his Truth Social Network that there are two options for dealing with Iran's enriched uranium (nuclear material): either hand it over to the United States immediately for destruction, or the more recommended option is for the United States and Iran to cooperate in destroying it on-site in Iran or at another location agreed upon by both parties, with the entire destruction process witnessed by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran or an organization of equivalent level.
Analysts believe that if a peace agreement is reached, the US dollar will weaken in the short term but may strengthen again later. ECB Governing Council member Stonaras stated that if inflation temporarily and significantly exceeds the target, monetary policy should be adjusted cautiously.
In the bond market, eurozone government bond yields fell to near one-month lows. The German two-year yield fell 11.7 basis points to 2.52%, the ten-year yield fell 10.5 basis points to 2.9302%, and the Italian ten-year yield fell 12.5 basis points to 3.6425%. Traders are focused on this week's release of the US ADP employment report and the eurozone confidence survey.
Al Jazeera: US and Iran reach understanding on asset unfreezing issue
Al Jazeera reported on the 25th that a source familiar with the talks between a high-level Iranian delegation in Doha stated that, with Qatar's mediation, the United States and Iran have reached an understanding on the issue of frozen Iranian financial assets. The source said that because the frozen financial assets are crucial to Iran, the two sides are "very likely" to announce an agreement tomorrow. An official from the Qatari Foreign Ministry told Xinhua News Agency that a high-level Iranian delegation was participating in the talks in Doha, including Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araqchi. The talks aimed to discuss the possibility of an agreement between the US and Iran to end the war, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, and frozen Iranian funds overseas. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran was in the delegation responsible for discussing financial matters that might be involved in the final agreement. (Xinhua)
Trump demands the signing of the "Abraham Accords" first; Saudi Arabia responds.
According to a report by Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV on the 25th, regarding US President Trump's call for Saudi Arabia and other countries to sign the "Abraham Accords" and normalize relations with Israel before reaching an agreement with Iran, a Saudi source stated that Saudi Arabia's position remains unchanged. The source indicated that Saudi Arabia's stance on the Palestinian issue remains unchanged, believing that "an irreversible path to Palestinian statehood is needed." The report cited Saudi Arabia's long-standing position, noting that Saudi Arabia has repeatedly emphasized that normalization of relations with Israel will not be achieved if Palestinian statehood cannot be established. (Xinhua)
Netanyahu instructed the Israeli military to intensify its crackdown on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 25th that he had instructed the military to further intensify its crackdown on Hezbollah in Lebanon. (Xinhua)
The World Platinum Investment Council projects that platinum demand related to the hydrogen economy will grow to approximately 400,000 ounces by 2030.
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) believes that the hydrogen economy is quietly becoming one of the most important structural drivers of platinum demand growth over the next decade. WPIC data shows that global green hydrogen production increased sixfold between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 50,000 tons per year to approximately 300,000 tons per year. During the same period, global electrolyzer capacity increased ninefold, from 0.6 gigawatts to 4.9 gigawatts. This growth trend is increasingly important to the platinum market, as platinum plays a crucial role in proton exchange membrane electrolyzers and fuel cell technology. WPIC predicts that by 2030, platinum demand related to the hydrogen economy is expected to grow to approximately 400,000 ounces.
The US and Iran are working to resolve their differences in wording regarding the nuclear issue and sanctions.
U.S. officials say that disputes over Iran's nuclear program and the wording of the sanctions relief agreement have delayed the signing of a ceasefire agreement, but all parties are optimistic that the differences may be resolved soon. A U.S. official stated that a high-level Iranian negotiating delegation arrived in Qatar on Monday, which, combined with Qatar's mediating role, is a positive sign.
A potential US-Iran deal sparks infighting within the Republican Party.
According to multiple foreign media reports, the US's efforts to reach an agreement with Iran have met with fierce backlash from several Republican hardliners. Facing internal party criticism, US President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio publicly defended their positions. Analysts point out that the approaching midterm elections, the rising inflation caused by the conflict with Iran, and its negative impact on the economy and people's livelihoods have fueled the US government's eagerness to extricate itself from the conflict, thus igniting intense divisions within the Republican Party. (CCTV International News)
Iran: The Iranian military has activated the new "Arash Archers" system.
Recently, Iran demonstrated its defense capabilities in the Persian Gulf by deploying its new Arash Archers equipment, successfully shooting down an enemy drone over this strategic waterway. This operation, conducted using equipment with stealth detection capabilities, sends a clear and strong signal from Iran. Relevant departments stated that this action demonstrates that stealth drones can no longer intrude into the Persian Gulf airspace. The operation safeguards Iran's sovereignty and security control over the Persian Gulf airspace and showcases the preparedness of its defense forces to respond to various provocations. Currently, the technical and operational details of this new equipment remain classified.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has fallen to 48%, down from about 67% on Monday morning and about 56% on Monday afternoon.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 99.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 90.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 52%, the probability of at least a rate hike of 25 basis points is 48%, and the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%.
The US military claims it conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran.
According to US media reports on the evening of May 25th, Eastern Time, a spokesperson for the US Central Command stated, "To protect US forces from Iranian threats, the US military conducted a 'self-defense strike' in southern Iran. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines." The spokesperson added, "The US Central Command will continue to exercise restraint during the current ceasefire, in addition to continuing to defend US forces."
The US claims its strikes against Iranian vessels were "defensive" and do not signify the end of the ceasefire agreement . According to Fox News, a senior US official revealed new details of the US military's strikes against Iranian targets. The official stated that the US military detected two Iranian vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequently destroyed them. In addition, the US military also struck a surface-to-air missile site located in Bandar Abbas. The US claims that the site was targeting US warplanes at the time, posing a direct threat.
The senior official emphasized that the actions were all "defensive strikes" and did not signify the end of the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Two sources also confirmed that this exchange of fire should not be regarded as the end of the ceasefire.
6G trial frequencies have been officially approved, and 6G is expected to be officially commercialized around 2030.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved the 6GHz frequency band, making my country the first country in the world to grant licenses for 6G trial frequencies. Following this approval, 6G technology development will gradually move from laboratory simulations and indoor prototype testing to real-world scenarios such as cities and industries to verify performance. In terms of timeline, my country successfully completed the first phase of key 6G technology trials between 2022 and 2025 and is currently launching the second phase of technical solution trials. In the future, the international community will need to finalize the first version of the 6G standard. Industry experts generally expect 6G to be officially commercialized around 2030. (CCTV Finance)
Key Focus Today
Gold Market
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday as the dollar weakened and markets held hopes for a peace deal to end the war with Iran. Spot gold rose 1.42% to $4,570.69 an ounce.
Despite both the US and Iran downplaying the possibility of a near-term agreement, market sentiment remains optimistic. Falling oil prices and a weaker dollar have eased concerns about persistently high inflation and interest rates, with traders pricing in a 40% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, a stark contrast to pre-conflict expectations of rate cuts. Furthermore, new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh was sworn in last Friday, facing the economic challenge of inflation driven by the Middle East conflict. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium also all recorded gains.
oil market
Oil prices plunged nearly 7% on Monday, with Brent crude closing at $96.18 a barrel and WTI crude at $90.30, mainly due to market optimism that the United States and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement to end the three-month war and that the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen to navigation.
Although both Washington and Tehran downplayed expectations of an imminent breakthrough, progress has been made on a ceasefire memorandum of understanding, giving negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement. Analysts point out that even with an agreement, repairs to damaged oil and gas facilities and the restoration of normal shipping through the Straits will still take several months. The current crude oil supply gap of 10 to 11 million barrels per day will not disappear immediately, and the market will continue to deplete inventories. Trading was thin due to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar fell against major currencies on Monday, with the dollar index down 0.35% to 98.98, despite both the US and Iran downplaying the possibility of a near-term agreement. Market liquidity was reduced as many countries were closed for holidays on Monday.
The US dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 158.91 yen; the euro rose 0.33% against the dollar to 1.1641 dollars; the pound rose 0.55% against the dollar to 1.3499 dollars; and the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar rose 0.58% and 0.5% against the dollar, respectively.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan will increase its reserves by an additional $19 billion to subsidize fuel costs and pledged not to incur new debt.
Regarding the US-Iran agreement, US Secretary of State Rubio stated that either a good agreement should be reached or Iran should be dealt with "another way." The Iranian Foreign Ministry indicated that many issues in the memorandum of understanding have been concluded but have not yet been signed.
US President Trump posted on his Truth Social Network that there are two options for dealing with Iran's enriched uranium (nuclear material): either hand it over to the United States immediately for destruction, or the more recommended option is for the United States and Iran to cooperate in destroying it on-site in Iran or at another location agreed upon by both parties, with the entire destruction process witnessed by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran or an organization of equivalent level.
Analysts believe that if a peace agreement is reached, the US dollar will weaken in the short term but may strengthen again later. ECB Governing Council member Stonaras stated that if inflation temporarily and significantly exceeds the target, monetary policy should be adjusted cautiously.
In the bond market, eurozone government bond yields fell to near one-month lows. The German two-year yield fell 11.7 basis points to 2.52%, the ten-year yield fell 10.5 basis points to 2.9302%, and the Italian ten-year yield fell 12.5 basis points to 3.6425%. Traders are focused on this week's release of the US ADP employment report and the eurozone confidence survey.
International News
Al Jazeera: US and Iran reach understanding on asset unfreezing issue
Al Jazeera reported on the 25th that a source familiar with the talks between a high-level Iranian delegation in Doha stated that, with Qatar's mediation, the United States and Iran have reached an understanding on the issue of frozen Iranian financial assets. The source said that because the frozen financial assets are crucial to Iran, the two sides are "very likely" to announce an agreement tomorrow. An official from the Qatari Foreign Ministry told Xinhua News Agency that a high-level Iranian delegation was participating in the talks in Doha, including Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araqchi. The talks aimed to discuss the possibility of an agreement between the US and Iran to end the war, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, and frozen Iranian funds overseas. The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran was in the delegation responsible for discussing financial matters that might be involved in the final agreement. (Xinhua)
Trump demands the signing of the "Abraham Accords" first; Saudi Arabia responds.
According to a report by Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV on the 25th, regarding US President Trump's call for Saudi Arabia and other countries to sign the "Abraham Accords" and normalize relations with Israel before reaching an agreement with Iran, a Saudi source stated that Saudi Arabia's position remains unchanged. The source indicated that Saudi Arabia's stance on the Palestinian issue remains unchanged, believing that "an irreversible path to Palestinian statehood is needed." The report cited Saudi Arabia's long-standing position, noting that Saudi Arabia has repeatedly emphasized that normalization of relations with Israel will not be achieved if Palestinian statehood cannot be established. (Xinhua)
Netanyahu instructed the Israeli military to intensify its crackdown on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 25th that he had instructed the military to further intensify its crackdown on Hezbollah in Lebanon. (Xinhua)
The World Platinum Investment Council projects that platinum demand related to the hydrogen economy will grow to approximately 400,000 ounces by 2030.
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) believes that the hydrogen economy is quietly becoming one of the most important structural drivers of platinum demand growth over the next decade. WPIC data shows that global green hydrogen production increased sixfold between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 50,000 tons per year to approximately 300,000 tons per year. During the same period, global electrolyzer capacity increased ninefold, from 0.6 gigawatts to 4.9 gigawatts. This growth trend is increasingly important to the platinum market, as platinum plays a crucial role in proton exchange membrane electrolyzers and fuel cell technology. WPIC predicts that by 2030, platinum demand related to the hydrogen economy is expected to grow to approximately 400,000 ounces.
The US and Iran are working to resolve their differences in wording regarding the nuclear issue and sanctions.
U.S. officials say that disputes over Iran's nuclear program and the wording of the sanctions relief agreement have delayed the signing of a ceasefire agreement, but all parties are optimistic that the differences may be resolved soon. A U.S. official stated that a high-level Iranian negotiating delegation arrived in Qatar on Monday, which, combined with Qatar's mediating role, is a positive sign.
A potential US-Iran deal sparks infighting within the Republican Party.
According to multiple foreign media reports, the US's efforts to reach an agreement with Iran have met with fierce backlash from several Republican hardliners. Facing internal party criticism, US President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio publicly defended their positions. Analysts point out that the approaching midterm elections, the rising inflation caused by the conflict with Iran, and its negative impact on the economy and people's livelihoods have fueled the US government's eagerness to extricate itself from the conflict, thus igniting intense divisions within the Republican Party. (CCTV International News)
Iran: The Iranian military has activated the new "Arash Archers" system.
Recently, Iran demonstrated its defense capabilities in the Persian Gulf by deploying its new Arash Archers equipment, successfully shooting down an enemy drone over this strategic waterway. This operation, conducted using equipment with stealth detection capabilities, sends a clear and strong signal from Iran. Relevant departments stated that this action demonstrates that stealth drones can no longer intrude into the Persian Gulf airspace. The operation safeguards Iran's sovereignty and security control over the Persian Gulf airspace and showcases the preparedness of its defense forces to respond to various provocations. Currently, the technical and operational details of this new equipment remain classified.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year has fallen to 48%, down from about 67% on Monday morning and about 56% on Monday afternoon.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 99.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 90.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 52%, the probability of at least a rate hike of 25 basis points is 48%, and the probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points is 0.1%.
The US military claims it conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran.
According to US media reports on the evening of May 25th, Eastern Time, a spokesperson for the US Central Command stated, "To protect US forces from Iranian threats, the US military conducted a 'self-defense strike' in southern Iran. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines." The spokesperson added, "The US Central Command will continue to exercise restraint during the current ceasefire, in addition to continuing to defend US forces."
The US claims its strikes against Iranian vessels were "defensive" and do not signify the end of the ceasefire agreement . According to Fox News, a senior US official revealed new details of the US military's strikes against Iranian targets. The official stated that the US military detected two Iranian vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and subsequently destroyed them. In addition, the US military also struck a surface-to-air missile site located in Bandar Abbas. The US claims that the site was targeting US warplanes at the time, posing a direct threat.
The senior official emphasized that the actions were all "defensive strikes" and did not signify the end of the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Two sources also confirmed that this exchange of fire should not be regarded as the end of the ceasefire.
Domestic News
6G trial frequencies have been officially approved, and 6G is expected to be officially commercialized around 2030.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved the 6GHz frequency band, making my country the first country in the world to grant licenses for 6G trial frequencies. Following this approval, 6G technology development will gradually move from laboratory simulations and indoor prototype testing to real-world scenarios such as cities and industries to verify performance. In terms of timeline, my country successfully completed the first phase of key 6G technology trials between 2022 and 2025 and is currently launching the second phase of technical solution trials. In the future, the international community will need to finalize the first version of the 6G standard. Industry experts generally expect 6G to be officially commercialized around 2030. (CCTV Finance)
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