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2026-05-26 17:14:13
[US-Iran tensions fluctuate, dollar stabilizes, risk assets experience "cooling expectations"] ⑴ The dollar index rose slightly to 99.08 on Tuesday, after falling 0.3% in the previous trading day. This was due to a new round of US attacks on Iranian targets, and Secretary of State Rubio's statement that an agreement could "take several days," dampening investor expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the war. ⑵ Previously, the prospect of a peace agreement had pushed oil prices below $100 per barrel, easing pressure on emerging market currencies and slightly boosting risk sentiment. However, with news of US military action, Brent crude futures rebounded 1.5% to $97.76 per barrel on Tuesday. ⑶ The euro fell slightly against the dollar to 1.163, after rising 0.3% on Monday. The pound fell 0.2% against the dollar to 1.347. The Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar to 0.716, indicating a cooling of risk appetite. ⑷ The dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 159.21, approaching the 160 mark. Institutional sources say Tokyo intervened near that level in late April to support the yen, and the market is closely watching whether authorities will act again. (5) Saxo Bank's chief investment strategist points out that the market's optimistic pricing in the progress of negotiations is reasonable, but the real test lies in whether oil tankers can move freely, whether insurance premiums can decrease, and whether energy flows can normalize. OCBC strategists say that even if oil prices remain below $100 per barrel in the second half of 2026, the dollar still lacks substantial reasons to be bearish, as the resilience of US economic growth and AI-driven inflationary pressures allow the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance.
