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[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Commodities Mainly Fluctuate at High Levels, Soda Ash and Glass Have Limited Upside] ⑴ Crude Oil: Fluctuating at high levels. Recent news about some consensus reached in the US-Iran negotiations has been released, but the core issues remain unresolved. Today, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have shot down a US drone, while the US Central Command claimed to have conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term. As prices are gradually becoming less responsive to positive news, if energy and chemical commodities experience another impulsive surge, it is recommended to gradually realize profits on long positions. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Fluctuating at high levels. Oil-producing countries have reduced production during the Middle East conflict, and China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil. The US-Iran negotiations have reached a stalemate, and Russian fuel oil exports have also been disrupted recently. However, fuel oil demand for power generation is in its peak season, and ship detours have increased demand for marine fuel, resulting in a relatively good fundamental situation. However, the market may develop in a more relaxed direction in the future. It is advisable to wait for the market to rebound to the previous high level and then try shorting with a small position. ⑶ Asphalt: Fluctuating at high levels. Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous month. In June, the total output of local asphalt refineries in China was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the previous month, a drop of 28.5%. (4) Glass: The rebound may be limited. Today, the North China market was affected by rainfall, resulting in poor sales and stable prices. The current daily output of the industry is 146,900 tons. Last week, upstream inventory increased by 44,000 heavy boxes, up 0.06% week-on-week and 12.82% year-on-year. Low supply provides some support for prices, while rising energy prices have driven up costs. A weak rebound is expected in the short term, but medium-term supply and demand pressures remain, and the upside potential is relatively cautious. (5) Soda Ash: The rebound may be limited. Recently, the domestic soda ash market has stabilized, with smooth sales and a significant drop in inventory levels. Today, the soda ash capacity utilization rate is 77.78%, with a slight increase in operating rates. On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.701 million tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons from last Thursday, a drop of 4.22%. Considering the persistently high coal costs and the large number of soda ash plants undergoing maintenance, prices may rebound in the short term, but the high supply and weak demand in the medium term are unlikely to change, limiting the upside potential. ⑹ Caustic soda: Slightly bearish. Today, the mainstream price of liquid soda ash in Shandong remained stable, while prices in southwestern and central Shandong showed mixed trends. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda last week was 79.8%, down 1.2% week-on-week, and the factory inventory was 565,600 tons, down 1.17% week-on-week and up 36% year-on-year. ⑺ Methanol: High-level fluctuations. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3165, down 30; the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2675, down 10. Today, the domestic methanol market continued its regionalized performance, with futures continuing to consolidate weakly. Trading in coastal areas was moderate, and the basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. Last week's data showed that port inventories decreased by 81,300 tons compared to the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 10.20%, while producer inventories were 364,200 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons compared to the previous period. Recent news regarding US-Iran negotiations has increased, and methanol futures may fluctuate at high levels.