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2026-05-28 20:16:23
[TTF Closes Flat and Turns Lower, Iranian Rumors Disrupt Trading, Bullish to €47 on Thursday] ⑴ The European TTF natural gas near-month contract closed at €45.90/MWh on Wednesday, down €1.06/MWh from the previous day. The system balance is loose. The contract was pressured during the session by rumors that Iran had agreed to a draft US peace agreement, but this news was unconfirmed and driven by market speculation. ⑵ The premium of the TTF near-month contract over the NBP near-month contract widened to €2.15/MWh from €1.39/MWh the previous day. ⑶ Fundamentals remain bearish, with non-LDZ demand down 100 GWh/day and LDZ demand further decreasing by 29 GWh/day. ⑷ Iran launched a retaliatory attack on US military bases, threatening the collapse of the ceasefire. Prices are expected to react bullishly on Thursday, with the TTF near-month contract expected to trade between €45.90 and €47.00/MWh. (5) Overall, the market will remain highly sensitive to Middle Eastern headlines, while weak fundamentals may limit the upside potential of the TTF near-month contract.
