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2026-05-28 21:00:48
[Global Growth Slows, Inflation Rises: South African Reserve Bank Lowers Two-Year Outlook; Hormuz Closure Imposes Three Rate Hikes] ⑴ The South African Reserve Bank (SRB) stated on Thursday that its global growth forecast has been lowered, while its inflation forecast has been revised upward. The market currently expects major central banks to raise interest rates this year. ⑵ The SRB has lowered its domestic growth forecast for the next two years, citing downside risks to growth. Inflation faces upside risks, with all forecasts including a second-round effect, though this has not yet been clearly confirmed by data. ⑶ All three scenarios indicate higher inflation and slower growth, with all pointing to further monetary policy tightening. If the Strait of Hormuz closure is prolonged, inflation will reach 5%, requiring two more rate hikes; in the worst-case scenario, three additional rate hikes are needed.
