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2026-05-29 01:33:42
Citadel Securities believes there is a high probability of a US-Iran agreement, saying investors are underestimating the possibility of a broad market rebound. Citadel Securities stated that investors may be underestimating the possibility of a broad market rebound triggered by the "timely" reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Strategist Frank Flight said two signs indicate a high probability of a US-Iran agreement to resume shipping across the strait. Flight noted that after months of internet outages, Iran's internet connectivity has recovered to about 86% of pre-conflict levels, suggesting Tehran expects the conflict to de-escalate soon. Furthermore, recent public appearances by senior Iranian military officials indicate that Tehran's leadership believes the risk of escalation or targeted strikes in the short term has decreased, increasing the likelihood of a peace agreement. Flight wrote, "We believe that these two factors, along with widespread reports of progress in negotiations, suggest an agreement may be imminent. We are more optimistic than the market expects regarding the prospect of a US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the strait."
