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2026-05-29 18:03:31
[Next Week's Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Expected 96,000 New Jobs, Exceeding 150,000 Could Trigger Overheating Concerns and Pressure the Stock Market] ⑴ The US May non-farm payrolls report will be released on June 5th. The market expects 96,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate projected at 4.3%. Investors remain wary of persistently high inflation and potential interest rate hikes that could hinder stock market gains. ⑵ If the jobs report shows more than 150,000 new jobs, it could exacerbate concerns about an "overheated" economy and push up US Treasury yields, which would be detrimental to the stock market; conversely, if it is weaker than expected, it could alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve shifting to a tightening stance. Thursday's data showed that the PCE price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since May 2023. ⑶ Broadcom will release its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, posing a test for AI-related transactions and semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen about 80% since its year-to-date low on March 30th, while the S&P 500 has risen 19% over the same period. The market expects a higher probability of interest rate hikes this year than rate cuts, and the 10-year US Treasury yield of approximately 4.46% remains a key risk factor for the stock market.
