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2026-05-29 18:27:07
[Non-Farm Payrolls Report Tests US Stock Market Rally: Expected 96,000 New Jobs, Over 150,000 Could Trigger Overheating Concerns] ⑴ The US May non-farm payrolls report will be released on June 5th, with the market expecting an unemployment rate of 4.3% and 96,000 new jobs. Investors are increasingly concerned that persistently high inflation and potential interest rate hikes could hinder the upward momentum of US stocks. The S&P 500 has risen more than 10% this year, with technology stocks leading the market driven by the AI boom. ⑵ Data released on Thursday showed that the PCE price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, driven by rising energy prices during the Iran war, the largest increase since May 2023. A strong jobs report accompanied by rising inflation will continue to change the Fed's policy outlook; a weaker-than-expected report could alleviate concerns about the Fed shifting to tightening. ⑶ More than 150,000 new jobs could exacerbate concerns about an "overheated" economy and push up US Treasury yields, which would be detrimental to the stock market. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracks a 3.8% growth rate in the second quarter, and with strong corporate earnings in the first quarter, the market should focus more on overheating rather than recession risks. (4) Broadcom will release its earnings report on Wednesday, posing a test for AI trading and semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen approximately 80% since its low on March 30. The 10-year US Treasury yield of approximately 4.46% remains a key risk to the stock market; a significant and sustained rise in interest rates would be most unsettling for investors.
