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2026-05-29 18:52:35
[Italy's Q1 GDP Revised Up to 0.3% Quarter-on-Quarter and 0.8% Year-on-Year, Driven by a 2.2% Jump in Exports] ⑴ Italy's National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) announced on Friday that Q1 GDP grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, higher than the initial estimate of 0.2% on April 30; and grew 0.8% year-on-year, higher than the initial estimate of 0.7%. The conflict with Iran, which began with the US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, is expected to have its main impact starting in Q2. ⑵ Q1 exports jumped 2.2% compared to Q4 last year, while imports fell 0.7%, with net trade contributing 0.9 percentage points to the quarterly growth rate. Consumer spending and investment also increased, but a significant reduction in inventories dragged down economic growth by 1.1 percentage points. ⑶ The "vanished growth" at the end of Q1 was 0.6%, meaning that even if GDP remains flat quarter-on-quarter for the remaining three quarters of 2026, the annual growth rate will still be 0.6% higher than in 2025. The Meloni government had already lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively last month, from 0.7% and 0.8%. Italy's GDP is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year that growth will be below 1%.
