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2026-05-29 21:53:33
[The pound is consolidating, awaiting direction; support below 1.34 and resistance at 1.35 form a range-bound pattern] ⑴ The pound is likely to remain within a narrow range in the near term, as bears have repeatedly failed to hold momentum below the psychological level of 1.3400, while bulls have been unable to break through the resistance level above 1.35, resulting in a lack of clear directional catalysts. ⑵ The pound weakened slightly after Bank of England Governor Bailey made dovish comments, stating that policymakers do not feel an immediate urgency to raise interest rates. However, optimism surrounding the extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which is currently awaiting approval, provided some support for the pound. ⑶ Thursday's US PCE data was slightly lower than expected, moderated expectations of a hawkish Fed policy, and added a less favorable factor for the dollar to the macroeconomic backdrop. This may prompt pound bulls to refocus on the 1.35 level. (4) From a technical perspective, the pound is supported by the 200-day moving average at 1.3423 and the recent trend low at 1.3380. More important support is located at the lower Bollinger Band on the 30-day chart at 1.3352. The upside resistance is located at the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.3451, followed by the Fibonacci level at 1.3481. The high of this week between 1.3504 and 1.3509 forms the upper resistance.
