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Live Updates  >  Live Update Details

2026-06-02 19:09:02

[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Show a Slightly Stronger Trend, Edible Oil Sector Boosted by Biodiesel and Weather Benefits] ⑴ Edible Oils: Slightly stronger. Geopolitical disturbances caused oil price fluctuations, but palm oil's sensitivity to crude oil decreased due to the B40 restriction. The market is focused on Indonesia's B50 policy, which will be implemented in July, with June being a key observation period for the policy. Production areas are gradually entering a production increase cycle, and palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in the medium term. The smooth growth of the new US soybean crop suppressed soybean prices, while high biodiesel profits supported the strength of overseas soybean oil. Domestically, edible oils were boosted by biodiesel and weather benefits, showing a slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, soybean oil and rapeseed oil will experience seasonal inventory accumulation, while palm oil spot inventory is high. In the short term, import purchases are recovering. Avoid chasing high prices and buy on dips. In the spot market, 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong rose by 20 yuan to 9590 yuan, soybean oil fell by 50 yuan to 8820 yuan, and genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose by 10 yuan to 10360 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: Short on rallies or enter arbitrage positions. The pressure from imported soybeans arriving in China continues to ease, oil mill operating rates are rebounding, and soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, hog farming is suffering deep losses, feed companies have relatively ample inventories, and there is a lack of speculative stockpiling. The domestic supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and spot prices continue to trade weakly. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies. (3) Corn: Primarily sell on rallies. Currently, corn supplies are mostly concentrated in the hands of suppliers, who have a strong willingness to support prices. However, the recent market entry of wheat and sprouted wheat has increased overall grain supply pressure. Downstream enterprises have ample inventories, and most maintain a just-in-time purchasing approach. The wheat market is squeezing downstream demand for corn, further suppressing enterprises' enthusiasm for building up inventories. Under the background of strong supply and weak demand, corn spot prices are under pressure and trading weakly. (4) Hogs: Enter the market with reverse arbitrage. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to deploy comprehensive regulation and control of hog production capacity, emphasizing the strict implementation of capacity reduction measures and will dispatch working groups to promote their implementation. In the spot market, hog prices have been fluctuating recently. The planned slaughter volume for June is slightly lower than the previous month, while the slaughter weight remains largely unchanged. Overall supply is expected to contract, while demand is weak in the short term. Hog futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. (5) Eggs: Long position entry recommended. The significant increase in spot egg prices over the weekend drove up egg futures prices today, with JD2606 and JD2607 contracts closing at their daily limit. In the short term, due to low egg inventory and increased demand for stockpiling before the Dragon Boat Festival, egg prices are likely to rise rather than fall. However, the significant increase in chicks added in February suggests that the number of laying hens may recover in the medium term, potentially limiting the potential for further price increases. Coupled with the significant year-on-year increase in current farming profits, cautious participation is advised.

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