The Middle East powder keg reignites! Iranian missiles strike Israel, prompting Trump to call off retaliation.
2026-06-08 08:56:51
Over the weekend, the already fragile security situation in the Middle East was further shattered. On Sunday night, June 7th, local time, Iran launched multiple ballistic missile strikes into Israel. This sudden attack risks the complete collapse of the previously fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement, further complicating and dimming the already stalled peace negotiations. Meanwhile, the international energy market reacted swiftly and dramatically to this event, with international crude oil prices rebounding significantly. WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 3% at one point, reaching $93.90 per barrel, just shy of the $94 mark.
This missile strike did not come without warning. According to a subsequent statement from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the immediate trigger for this military action was a series of recent Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, particularly targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Iran believes that Israel committed heinous crimes, causing mass casualties among civilians in these operations. In response, the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force targeted Ramat David Air Base in northern Israel, which Iran considers a key stronghold for Israeli military operations.
An Iranian military advisor later stated that the strike was essentially a "warning" to urge Israel to immediately cease its hostile actions in Lebanon. He added that if Israeli aggression were to occur again, Iran's future response would be more extensive, potentially covering all targets in the region associated with the United States and Israel.
In response to the missile attack from Iran, the Israeli military reacted swiftly. The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement that evening stating that they detected at least three rounds of missiles fired by Iran at Israel, prompting air raid sirens to be sounded in multiple regions across the country.
The Israeli military stated that its air defense systems were fully engaged in interception, emphasizing that while the systems were not "infallible," they ultimately successfully intercepted all incoming missiles. Meanwhile, the Israeli Homeland Defense Command issued stricter civil defense guidelines, announcing a nationwide ban on all educational activities and imposing strict limits on public gatherings: no more than 200 people outdoors and no more than 500 people indoors.
Israeli media, citing an Israeli official, reported that Israel would not allow Iran to attempt to establish any so-called "balance" and would respond "strongly" to the missile attack. An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson stated at a late-night press conference that Iran's missile launch was "a serious mistake," and that the IDF would continue operations throughout Lebanon and intensify its attacks on Hezbollah. The IDF Chief of Staff was assessing the situation and would soon approve the next course of action.
As a key external force in Middle Eastern affairs, the United States' stance during this crisis has been closely watched. President Trump was briefed immediately on the escalating situation between Israel and Iran and stated in an interview that Iran's missile strikes "did not help negotiations." He urged Iran to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible and implied that the missile launches should stop there.
Interestingly, Trump also expressed his displeasure with Israel's airstrike on Beirut that day, saying he was "not happy about it." He further stated in an interview that he would immediately call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and demand that he not take retaliatory action.
Trump emphasized that a final agreement between the US and Iran is "close" and he does not want the current events to cause the agreement to fall through. He even stated bluntly that Netanyahu has "no choice" but to accept the agreement between the US and Iran, and boldly declared, "It's all up to me."
However, Trump also left himself an out, stating that if the agreement with Iran fails to meet its terms, he might consider launching a raid on Iran or continuing the blockade.
It is reported that in the subsequent call, Netanyahu attempted to oppose Trump's demand for "no retaliation," but ultimately accepted the US position.
News of Iran's missile attack on Israel triggered panic buying in the international crude oil market. WTI crude oil prices surged by more than 3% after the incident, approaching $94 per barrel. However, as Trump stated that the Iranian attack would not affect the progress of the agreement between the two sides, market tensions eased, and oil prices subsequently fell slightly to around $92.50 per barrel.
Meanwhile, spot gold prices dipped slightly on Monday, briefly hitting a low of $4,310.33 per ounce, the lowest since March 24, a drop of about 0.4%. However, after Trump's remarks, gold recovered all its losses and traded around $4,340 per ounce. Overall, the market is still closely watching how the situation develops, and further actions from either side could trigger further volatility.
Around the time of Iran's missile attack on Israel, other military tensions in the Middle East were also escalating. Early Saturday morning (June 5), the U.S. military shot down several Iranian-launched drones, which the U.S. Central Command claimed posed a threat to maritime traffic. Subsequently, the U.S. military struck Iranian coastal radar stations on Goruk and Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed that two other Iranian attack drones threatening shipping in the strait were shot down.
In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that it had retaliated against US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Kuwaiti military claimed it successfully intercepted seven ballistic missiles that flew over residential areas, causing property damage but no casualties.
Sources familiar with U.S. plans have revealed that the U.S. may provide Iranian assets to its Gulf neighbors to repair damage caused by Iran. In response, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated explicitly that any such misappropriation of Iranian assets is illegal and that Tehran will take appropriate measures in response.
In summary, the current situation in the Middle East is at an extremely dangerous critical juncture. Iran's missile strikes, ostensibly a "warning," coupled with Israel's vow of a "strong response" and the complex stance of the United States—wanting to both maintain the agreement and demonstrate military power—have rendered the already fragile ceasefire virtually defunct. The border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel continues, and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, is also seriously threatened. The international community is widely concerned that if the parties cannot find a breakthrough to ease tensions in the short term, a larger-scale regional conflict may be unavoidable. Volatility in the energy market and safe-haven assets will continue to be a barometer of this geopolitical storm.
Question 1: Why did Iran choose June 7th as the date to launch its missile attack on Israel?
A: Iran chose this time to launch the attack primarily in response to Israel's recent military operations in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Iran believes these Israeli operations have caused large-scale civilian casualties, thus necessitating a military response. Furthermore, when Iran accepted the ceasefire agreement in April, it stipulated a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts. However, Iran accuses both the US and Israel of failing to uphold their commitments, particularly Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, which Iran views as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Therefore, this missile strike is both retaliation and a political warning.
Question 2: How credible is Israel's claim that it "intercepted all incoming missiles"?
A: The Israeli military claims to have successfully intercepted all missiles, but this claim should be viewed with caution. An Israeli military spokesperson himself admitted that its air defense system is not "infallible." From a technical perspective, Iran launched ballistic missiles, which are difficult to intercept. However, Israel possesses a multi-layered air defense system, including the Arrow anti-missile system, which has a certain mid-course and terminal phase interception capability. Currently, there is no independent third-party evidence to confirm or refute the Israeli military's claims. It is worth noting that Israel subsequently implemented strict civil defense measures, including complete school closures and restrictions on the number of people allowed to gather, indicating that the Israeli government remains highly vigilant regarding potential threats.
Question 3: Why is Trump urging Iran to negotiate while simultaneously preventing Israel from retaliating?
A: Trump's core objective is to push for a US-Iran agreement, which he considers a significant diplomatic achievement. He fears that Israeli retaliation could trigger a larger-scale Iranian response, escalating the conflict and ultimately destroying the negotiation process. Therefore, while telling Iran, "Shooting missiles is enough, come back to negotiations," he also pressured Israel not to retaliate. However, Trump has not completely abandoned military options; he has explicitly stated that if an agreement fails, he will consider a surprise attack on Iran. This seemingly contradictory stance actually reflects the US's balancing act between "maximum pressure" and "diplomatic breakthrough."
Question 4: Why is the Strait of Hormuz being mentioned so frequently in this conflict? How important is it to global energy supply?
A: The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is a vital maritime passage connecting Middle Eastern oil-producing countries with global markets. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and a significant amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported through this strait, earning it the title of "global energy chokepoint." In the recent conflict, direct clashes occurred between Iran and the United States near the Strait of Hormuz, including US strikes against Iranian radar stations and Iranian threats to shipping safety. This has drastically increased the risk of passage through the strait, effectively bringing it close to closure. If the strait were blocked or passage were obstructed, the global supply chains for crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas would be severely impacted, which is the direct reason for the immediate surge in international oil prices.
Question 5: In which direction is the situation most likely to develop in the future? Will oil and gold prices continue to rise?
A: There are three possible paths for the future situation. The first is that all parties exercise restraint, with Iran's "warning" strikes and Israel's "verbal strong response" remaining merely rhetoric, and the US continuing its mediation. Oil and gold prices will gradually give back their gains. The second is that Israel takes limited retaliatory action, such as striking Iranian proxy targets in Syria or Lebanon. Both sides maintain a low-intensity confrontation, providing medium- to long-term support for oil and gold prices. The third and most dangerous scenario is that Israel launches a strong counterattack against Iranian targets on its own soil, while Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and attacks US and Israeli bases. This would cause oil prices to surge to triple digits in the short term, and gold to soar. Currently, given Trump's explicit pressure on Israel not to retaliate, the first path seems more likely. However, any miscalculation by either side or unexpected events could push the situation into a more dangerous state.
At 08:55 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $92.51 per barrel.
Background and Motives of the Attack: Iran's Support for Lebanon Sends a Strong Warning
This missile strike did not come without warning. According to a subsequent statement from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the immediate trigger for this military action was a series of recent Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, particularly targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Iran believes that Israel committed heinous crimes, causing mass casualties among civilians in these operations. In response, the Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force targeted Ramat David Air Base in northern Israel, which Iran considers a key stronghold for Israeli military operations.
An Iranian military advisor later stated that the strike was essentially a "warning" to urge Israel to immediately cease its hostile actions in Lebanon. He added that if Israeli aggression were to occur again, Iran's future response would be more extensive, potentially covering all targets in the region associated with the United States and Israel.
Israel's response: claiming successful interception and threatening strong retaliation.
In response to the missile attack from Iran, the Israeli military reacted swiftly. The Israel Defense Forces issued a statement that evening stating that they detected at least three rounds of missiles fired by Iran at Israel, prompting air raid sirens to be sounded in multiple regions across the country.
The Israeli military stated that its air defense systems were fully engaged in interception, emphasizing that while the systems were not "infallible," they ultimately successfully intercepted all incoming missiles. Meanwhile, the Israeli Homeland Defense Command issued stricter civil defense guidelines, announcing a nationwide ban on all educational activities and imposing strict limits on public gatherings: no more than 200 people outdoors and no more than 500 people indoors.
Israeli media, citing an Israeli official, reported that Israel would not allow Iran to attempt to establish any so-called "balance" and would respond "strongly" to the missile attack. An Israel Defense Forces spokesperson stated at a late-night press conference that Iran's missile launch was "a serious mistake," and that the IDF would continue operations throughout Lebanon and intensify its attacks on Hezbollah. The IDF Chief of Staff was assessing the situation and would soon approve the next course of action.
The US position: Trump applies pressure from both sides to prevent Israel from retaliating.
As a key external force in Middle Eastern affairs, the United States' stance during this crisis has been closely watched. President Trump was briefed immediately on the escalating situation between Israel and Iran and stated in an interview that Iran's missile strikes "did not help negotiations." He urged Iran to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible and implied that the missile launches should stop there.
Interestingly, Trump also expressed his displeasure with Israel's airstrike on Beirut that day, saying he was "not happy about it." He further stated in an interview that he would immediately call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and demand that he not take retaliatory action.
Trump emphasized that a final agreement between the US and Iran is "close" and he does not want the current events to cause the agreement to fall through. He even stated bluntly that Netanyahu has "no choice" but to accept the agreement between the US and Iran, and boldly declared, "It's all up to me."
However, Trump also left himself an out, stating that if the agreement with Iran fails to meet its terms, he might consider launching a raid on Iran or continuing the blockade.
It is reported that in the subsequent call, Netanyahu attempted to oppose Trump's demand for "no retaliation," but ultimately accepted the US position.
Energy and Gold Market Volatility: Oil Prices Jump Then Fall Back, Gold Prices Initially Drop Then Stabilize
News of Iran's missile attack on Israel triggered panic buying in the international crude oil market. WTI crude oil prices surged by more than 3% after the incident, approaching $94 per barrel. However, as Trump stated that the Iranian attack would not affect the progress of the agreement between the two sides, market tensions eased, and oil prices subsequently fell slightly to around $92.50 per barrel.
Meanwhile, spot gold prices dipped slightly on Monday, briefly hitting a low of $4,310.33 per ounce, the lowest since March 24, a drop of about 0.4%. However, after Trump's remarks, gold recovered all its losses and traded around $4,340 per ounce. Overall, the market is still closely watching how the situation develops, and further actions from either side could trigger further volatility.
The situation continues to escalate: US military intervention and the impact on neighboring countries.
Around the time of Iran's missile attack on Israel, other military tensions in the Middle East were also escalating. Early Saturday morning (June 5), the U.S. military shot down several Iranian-launched drones, which the U.S. Central Command claimed posed a threat to maritime traffic. Subsequently, the U.S. military struck Iranian coastal radar stations on Goruk and Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed that two other Iranian attack drones threatening shipping in the strait were shot down.
In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that it had retaliated against US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Kuwaiti military claimed it successfully intercepted seven ballistic missiles that flew over residential areas, causing property damage but no casualties.
Sources familiar with U.S. plans have revealed that the U.S. may provide Iranian assets to its Gulf neighbors to repair damage caused by Iran. In response, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated explicitly that any such misappropriation of Iranian assets is illegal and that Tehran will take appropriate measures in response.
Summary and Outlook: Hopes for a ceasefire are slim, and the risk of an escalating conflict is increasing.
In summary, the current situation in the Middle East is at an extremely dangerous critical juncture. Iran's missile strikes, ostensibly a "warning," coupled with Israel's vow of a "strong response" and the complex stance of the United States—wanting to both maintain the agreement and demonstrate military power—have rendered the already fragile ceasefire virtually defunct. The border conflict between Hezbollah and Israel continues, and the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, is also seriously threatened. The international community is widely concerned that if the parties cannot find a breakthrough to ease tensions in the short term, a larger-scale regional conflict may be unavoidable. Volatility in the energy market and safe-haven assets will continue to be a barometer of this geopolitical storm.
Frequently Asked Questions
Question 1: Why did Iran choose June 7th as the date to launch its missile attack on Israel?
A: Iran chose this time to launch the attack primarily in response to Israel's recent military operations in southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Iran believes these Israeli operations have caused large-scale civilian casualties, thus necessitating a military response. Furthermore, when Iran accepted the ceasefire agreement in April, it stipulated a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts. However, Iran accuses both the US and Israel of failing to uphold their commitments, particularly Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, which Iran views as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Therefore, this missile strike is both retaliation and a political warning.
Question 2: How credible is Israel's claim that it "intercepted all incoming missiles"?
A: The Israeli military claims to have successfully intercepted all missiles, but this claim should be viewed with caution. An Israeli military spokesperson himself admitted that its air defense system is not "infallible." From a technical perspective, Iran launched ballistic missiles, which are difficult to intercept. However, Israel possesses a multi-layered air defense system, including the Arrow anti-missile system, which has a certain mid-course and terminal phase interception capability. Currently, there is no independent third-party evidence to confirm or refute the Israeli military's claims. It is worth noting that Israel subsequently implemented strict civil defense measures, including complete school closures and restrictions on the number of people allowed to gather, indicating that the Israeli government remains highly vigilant regarding potential threats.
Question 3: Why is Trump urging Iran to negotiate while simultaneously preventing Israel from retaliating?
A: Trump's core objective is to push for a US-Iran agreement, which he considers a significant diplomatic achievement. He fears that Israeli retaliation could trigger a larger-scale Iranian response, escalating the conflict and ultimately destroying the negotiation process. Therefore, while telling Iran, "Shooting missiles is enough, come back to negotiations," he also pressured Israel not to retaliate. However, Trump has not completely abandoned military options; he has explicitly stated that if an agreement fails, he will consider a surprise attack on Iran. This seemingly contradictory stance actually reflects the US's balancing act between "maximum pressure" and "diplomatic breakthrough."
Question 4: Why is the Strait of Hormuz being mentioned so frequently in this conflict? How important is it to global energy supply?
A: The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is a vital maritime passage connecting Middle Eastern oil-producing countries with global markets. Approximately 20% of the world's oil and a significant amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported through this strait, earning it the title of "global energy chokepoint." In the recent conflict, direct clashes occurred between Iran and the United States near the Strait of Hormuz, including US strikes against Iranian radar stations and Iranian threats to shipping safety. This has drastically increased the risk of passage through the strait, effectively bringing it close to closure. If the strait were blocked or passage were obstructed, the global supply chains for crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas would be severely impacted, which is the direct reason for the immediate surge in international oil prices.
Question 5: In which direction is the situation most likely to develop in the future? Will oil and gold prices continue to rise?
A: There are three possible paths for the future situation. The first is that all parties exercise restraint, with Iran's "warning" strikes and Israel's "verbal strong response" remaining merely rhetoric, and the US continuing its mediation. Oil and gold prices will gradually give back their gains. The second is that Israel takes limited retaliatory action, such as striking Iranian proxy targets in Syria or Lebanon. Both sides maintain a low-intensity confrontation, providing medium- to long-term support for oil and gold prices. The third and most dangerous scenario is that Israel launches a strong counterattack against Iranian targets on its own soil, while Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz and attacks US and Israeli bases. This would cause oil prices to surge to triple digits in the short term, and gold to soar. Currently, given Trump's explicit pressure on Israel not to retaliate, the first path seems more likely. However, any miscalculation by either side or unexpected events could push the situation into a more dangerous state.
At 08:55 Beijing time, US crude oil is currently trading at $92.51 per barrel.
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