June 9th Financial Breakfast: Interest rate hike expectations and a strong dollar put pressure on gold prices, potentially testing the $4250 level; Iran's signals of negotiations limit oil price gains.
2026-06-09 07:22:35
On Tuesday (June 9th, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4327.50 per ounce. Increased expectations of a Fed rate hike and a continued strengthening of the US dollar weighed on gold prices, which had touched around $4268 per ounce on Monday. It may test the $4250 per ounce level during the day. US crude oil was trading around $91.35 per barrel. Trump's statement that there would be a complete victory over Iran in the next two weeks and Iran's representative to the United Nations' expectation that the US-Iran negotiations would reach an agreement by the end of June limited the rise in oil prices.
U.S. stocks mostly closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 0.9%, as technology and chip stocks rebounded after a sharp sell-off on Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.16%.
Iran and Israel announced a cessation of mutual attacks, easing geopolitical tensions; Apple released an AI version of Siri, but its stock price closed down 1.9%; news of Google's TPU orders boosted Intel's stock price by 11.2%.
Broadcom rose 2.8%, and Marvell gained 9.6% to be included in the S&P 500. Total market volume was 19.5 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average.
Gold prices held steady on Monday, with spot gold settling at $4,329.67 an ounce. Earlier in the session, it touched a low of $4,268.42, its lowest level since March 23, as U.S. President Trump said Israel and Iran were seeking an "immediate ceasefire," a ceasefire that helped gold recover earlier losses.
The dollar hovered near a two-month high, limiting upside potential for gold prices, while strong U.S. May jobs data (172,000 new jobs) reinforced market expectations of a Fed rate hike at the end of the year.
Investors are awaiting Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI data for clues about the interest rate path. Citibank lowered its short-term gold price target to $4,000. Spot silver rose 0.6% to $68.22, while platinum and palladium fell 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
Oil prices closed higher on Monday, but gains were limited. Brent crude rose 1.42% to $94.16 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 1.14% to $91.28 a barrel. Prices had earlier risen more than 5% due to mutual attacks between Israel and Iran. Subsequently, at the urging of US President Trump, both sides announced a cessation of mutual attacks, although Iran warned that it would resume operations if Israel continued to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian ambassador to Moscow stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, but transit fees may be levied. OPEC+ agreed to raise its production target for the fourth time in four months, but analysts believe most member countries will be unable to meet the target, limiting the impact. Saudi Arabia has lowered its official selling price for July crude oil to Asia for the second consecutive month.
The dollar edged lower on Monday but remained near a two-month high, closing at 100.01, after Iran and Israel agreed to a halt to attacks on each other, prompting investors to turn to other currencies.
Strong U.S. jobs data for May boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the market now pricing in a roughly 40% probability of a rate hike before the end of October. Meanwhile, investors increased their long dollar positions and reduced their long euro positions to a three-month low.
The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar to $1.1531, while the pound rebounded to $1.3390, but both remained near nine-week and three-week lows, respectively. Markets are closely watching Wednesday's US CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision.
The dollar hit a high of 160.389 against the yen on Monday, with the Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates this month, but the market has already priced in a 25 basis point increase.
Trump claims a complete victory against Iran in the next two weeks.
On June 8, local time, US President Trump, during a phone campaign event for South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, stated that the US would achieve a "complete victory" over Iran within the next two weeks. Trump claimed that negotiations between the US and Iran are still ongoing, and Iran hopes to reach an agreement and is willing to accept key conditions proposed by the US, including not possessing nuclear weapons. He further stated, "I think we are winning this contest, and the real victory will come in the next two weeks. When we declare a complete victory, it will be a complete victory, and it will happen very soon. Oil prices will drop significantly." US media reports indicate that this is not the first time Trump has stated that significant progress will be achieved "within two weeks." The ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, Eastern Time, was initially also set to last "two weeks" "to allow both sides to complete negotiations on a final agreement to end the conflict." (CCTV)
Iran's UN representative: Expects US-Iran negotiations to reach an agreement by the end of June
Iran's UN representative, Amir Saeed Illavani, said on Monday that Iran and the United States are still actively pushing forward negotiations on a peace agreement and are optimistic that a final result will be reached "soon." When asked if an agreement could be reached by the end of June, Illavani responded, "We hope so." Illavani also emphasized that the current ceasefire agreement is comprehensive and applies to the entire region, including Lebanon. However, this statement was opposed by Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that although Israel has decided not to take further military action against Iran, it will continue its attacks on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is 71.3%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 98.1%, with a 1.9% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 84.7%, with a 13.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 28.2%, with a 71.3% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut.
White House: Will appeal ruling regarding H-1B visa fees
White House spokesman Taylor Rogers said in a statement that the White House will appeal the judge's ruling that rejected Trump's requirement for a $100,000 H-1B visa application fee. He stated that Trump has clear legal authority to restrict entry for foreign nationals he deems not in the overall interest of the United States.
Flights suspended throughout Iran
According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 8th, the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization issued a NOTAM stating that all flights at airports nationwide are suspended, with the resumption date to be announced later. The notice advises passengers not to travel to airports before the relevant authorities issue a notice regarding the resumption of normal operations to avoid congestion and unnecessary chaos. Information regarding flight resumption and subsequent adjustments will be released through official media and relevant information platforms. (Xinhua)
Israeli Prime Minister: Decided to "temporarily refrain from retaliating" against Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that he has decided to "temporarily refrain from retaliating" against Iran, given that Iran has ceased its attacks; however, he warned that Israel will respond militarily if Iran and Hezbollah resume their attacks. Netanyahu stated that he has conveyed the same stance to US President Donald Trump. "If they misjudge the situation and resume attacks, we will respond forcefully. Israel has the right to self-defense, and will exercise that right if necessary," Netanyahu said. Netanyahu pointed out that Iran and Hezbollah are attempting to establish a new "rule of conduct" that allows them to attack Israel at will without facing retaliation, which is unacceptable.
The EU imposed sanctions on Iran under the pretext of "threatening freedom of navigation".
The European Council issued a statement on August 8th, announcing that the EU had approved sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities on the same day, citing "threats to freedom of navigation in the Middle East." The statement said that a commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, an individual linked to Iran's energy export industry organization, and a regional command under the IRGC Navy were added to the sanctions list. The sanctions include freezing assets, prohibiting the provision of funds or other economic resources, and banning related personnel from traveling to or transiting through EU territory. On the same day, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kallas, stated in Nicosia, Cyprus, that this was the first time EU member states had approved sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities under the pretext of "threats to freedom of navigation." (Xinhua)
Iranian President: Iran has not left the negotiating table
Iranian President Sergei Pezechzian posted on social media on the 8th that diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power, and Iran has neither left the battlefield nor the negotiating table. Pezechzian stated that maintaining national security and social stability is the Iranian government's top priority, and Iran will firmly safeguard the rights and interests of the nation and its people, and will not back down in the face of external pressure and threats. He also called for maintaining national unity and responding to challenges rationally. (Xinhua)
The price of electronic fabric has increased by 100%, marking the fifth round of price hikes this year.
Electronic fiberglass cloth, also known as electronic-grade fiberglass cloth, is a key basic material in the electronics industry. It is mainly used in the manufacture of copper-clad laminates and printed circuit boards, and then applied to various electronic products such as data center servers, smartphones, and 5G communication base stations. A CCTV Finance reporter's investigation found that the surge in computing power demand this year has driven a significant increase in electronic fiberglass cloth prices. As of early June, commonly used specifications of electronic fiberglass cloth had undergone five rounds of price increases this year, with an average price of 7.4 yuan/meter, a 100% increase compared to the low point in the third quarter of last year. Due to the high requirements for production equipment and process control, the pace of capacity expansion for electronic fiberglass cloth has been objectively constrained. Experts say the tight supply and demand situation for electronic fiberglass cloth may continue. Industry insiders predict that, due to the long expansion cycle of electronic yarn and the time needed for high-end electronic fiberglass cloth production capacity to be implemented, it remains to be seen when the electronic fiberglass cloth market will return to supply and demand balance. (CCTV Finance)
Printed circuit board prices surge as 70% of global PPE resin supply is disrupted.
The impact of the Middle East conflict is spreading from the energy market to the electronics supply chain. CCTV Finance reporters learned that Saudi Arabia's Jubail industrial zone previously supplied approximately 70% of the world's PPE resin. However, as early as the end of March this year, due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, related factories had already ceased production. Resin is a crucial material for manufacturing printed circuit boards (PCBs), with PPE resin primarily used in high-end products. PCBs are essentially the "nervous system" of electronic devices. From smartphones and laptops to routers and AI servers, almost all modern electronic products rely on them. Experts say that if the resin supply disruption continues into this fall, consumers will feel the pressure of rising prices. A recent Goldman Sachs report showed that in April alone, PCB prices rose by as much as 40% compared to March. The stock price of US PCB manufacturer Schindler Technology has risen by over 400% in the past year. (CCTV Finance)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks mostly closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 0.9%, as technology and chip stocks rebounded after a sharp sell-off on Friday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 0.16%.
Iran and Israel announced a cessation of mutual attacks, easing geopolitical tensions; Apple released an AI version of Siri, but its stock price closed down 1.9%; news of Google's TPU orders boosted Intel's stock price by 11.2%.
Broadcom rose 2.8%, and Marvell gained 9.6% to be included in the S&P 500. Total market volume was 19.5 billion shares, slightly below the 20-day average.
Gold Market
Gold prices held steady on Monday, with spot gold settling at $4,329.67 an ounce. Earlier in the session, it touched a low of $4,268.42, its lowest level since March 23, as U.S. President Trump said Israel and Iran were seeking an "immediate ceasefire," a ceasefire that helped gold recover earlier losses.
The dollar hovered near a two-month high, limiting upside potential for gold prices, while strong U.S. May jobs data (172,000 new jobs) reinforced market expectations of a Fed rate hike at the end of the year.
Investors are awaiting Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's PPI data for clues about the interest rate path. Citibank lowered its short-term gold price target to $4,000. Spot silver rose 0.6% to $68.22, while platinum and palladium fell 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
oil market
Oil prices closed higher on Monday, but gains were limited. Brent crude rose 1.42% to $94.16 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 1.14% to $91.28 a barrel. Prices had earlier risen more than 5% due to mutual attacks between Israel and Iran. Subsequently, at the urging of US President Trump, both sides announced a cessation of mutual attacks, although Iran warned that it would resume operations if Israel continued to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Iranian ambassador to Moscow stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, but transit fees may be levied. OPEC+ agreed to raise its production target for the fourth time in four months, but analysts believe most member countries will be unable to meet the target, limiting the impact. Saudi Arabia has lowered its official selling price for July crude oil to Asia for the second consecutive month.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar edged lower on Monday but remained near a two-month high, closing at 100.01, after Iran and Israel agreed to a halt to attacks on each other, prompting investors to turn to other currencies.
Strong U.S. jobs data for May boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the market now pricing in a roughly 40% probability of a rate hike before the end of October. Meanwhile, investors increased their long dollar positions and reduced their long euro positions to a three-month low.
The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar to $1.1531, while the pound rebounded to $1.3390, but both remained near nine-week and three-week lows, respectively. Markets are closely watching Wednesday's US CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision.
The dollar hit a high of 160.389 against the yen on Monday, with the Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates this month, but the market has already priced in a 25 basis point increase.
International News
Trump claims a complete victory against Iran in the next two weeks.
On June 8, local time, US President Trump, during a phone campaign event for South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, stated that the US would achieve a "complete victory" over Iran within the next two weeks. Trump claimed that negotiations between the US and Iran are still ongoing, and Iran hopes to reach an agreement and is willing to accept key conditions proposed by the US, including not possessing nuclear weapons. He further stated, "I think we are winning this contest, and the real victory will come in the next two weeks. When we declare a complete victory, it will be a complete victory, and it will happen very soon. Oil prices will drop significantly." US media reports indicate that this is not the first time Trump has stated that significant progress will be achieved "within two weeks." The ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, Eastern Time, was initially also set to last "two weeks" "to allow both sides to complete negotiations on a final agreement to end the conflict." (CCTV)
Iran's UN representative: Expects US-Iran negotiations to reach an agreement by the end of June
Iran's UN representative, Amir Saeed Illavani, said on Monday that Iran and the United States are still actively pushing forward negotiations on a peace agreement and are optimistic that a final result will be reached "soon." When asked if an agreement could be reached by the end of June, Illavani responded, "We hope so." Illavani also emphasized that the current ceasefire agreement is comprehensive and applies to the entire region, including Lebanon. However, this statement was opposed by Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that although Israel has decided not to take further military action against Iran, it will continue its attacks on Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is 71.3%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 98.1%, with a 1.9% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 84.7%, with a 13.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 28.2%, with a 71.3% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate hike and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut.
White House: Will appeal ruling regarding H-1B visa fees
White House spokesman Taylor Rogers said in a statement that the White House will appeal the judge's ruling that rejected Trump's requirement for a $100,000 H-1B visa application fee. He stated that Trump has clear legal authority to restrict entry for foreign nationals he deems not in the overall interest of the United States.
Flights suspended throughout Iran
According to a report by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on the 8th, the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization issued a NOTAM stating that all flights at airports nationwide are suspended, with the resumption date to be announced later. The notice advises passengers not to travel to airports before the relevant authorities issue a notice regarding the resumption of normal operations to avoid congestion and unnecessary chaos. Information regarding flight resumption and subsequent adjustments will be released through official media and relevant information platforms. (Xinhua)
Israeli Prime Minister: Decided to "temporarily refrain from retaliating" against Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that he has decided to "temporarily refrain from retaliating" against Iran, given that Iran has ceased its attacks; however, he warned that Israel will respond militarily if Iran and Hezbollah resume their attacks. Netanyahu stated that he has conveyed the same stance to US President Donald Trump. "If they misjudge the situation and resume attacks, we will respond forcefully. Israel has the right to self-defense, and will exercise that right if necessary," Netanyahu said. Netanyahu pointed out that Iran and Hezbollah are attempting to establish a new "rule of conduct" that allows them to attack Israel at will without facing retaliation, which is unacceptable.
The EU imposed sanctions on Iran under the pretext of "threatening freedom of navigation".
The European Council issued a statement on August 8th, announcing that the EU had approved sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities on the same day, citing "threats to freedom of navigation in the Middle East." The statement said that a commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, an individual linked to Iran's energy export industry organization, and a regional command under the IRGC Navy were added to the sanctions list. The sanctions include freezing assets, prohibiting the provision of funds or other economic resources, and banning related personnel from traveling to or transiting through EU territory. On the same day, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kallas, stated in Nicosia, Cyprus, that this was the first time EU member states had approved sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities under the pretext of "threats to freedom of navigation." (Xinhua)
Iranian President: Iran has not left the negotiating table
Iranian President Sergei Pezechzian posted on social media on the 8th that diplomacy and defense are the two wings of national power, and Iran has neither left the battlefield nor the negotiating table. Pezechzian stated that maintaining national security and social stability is the Iranian government's top priority, and Iran will firmly safeguard the rights and interests of the nation and its people, and will not back down in the face of external pressure and threats. He also called for maintaining national unity and responding to challenges rationally. (Xinhua)
Domestic News
The price of electronic fabric has increased by 100%, marking the fifth round of price hikes this year.
Electronic fiberglass cloth, also known as electronic-grade fiberglass cloth, is a key basic material in the electronics industry. It is mainly used in the manufacture of copper-clad laminates and printed circuit boards, and then applied to various electronic products such as data center servers, smartphones, and 5G communication base stations. A CCTV Finance reporter's investigation found that the surge in computing power demand this year has driven a significant increase in electronic fiberglass cloth prices. As of early June, commonly used specifications of electronic fiberglass cloth had undergone five rounds of price increases this year, with an average price of 7.4 yuan/meter, a 100% increase compared to the low point in the third quarter of last year. Due to the high requirements for production equipment and process control, the pace of capacity expansion for electronic fiberglass cloth has been objectively constrained. Experts say the tight supply and demand situation for electronic fiberglass cloth may continue. Industry insiders predict that, due to the long expansion cycle of electronic yarn and the time needed for high-end electronic fiberglass cloth production capacity to be implemented, it remains to be seen when the electronic fiberglass cloth market will return to supply and demand balance. (CCTV Finance)
Printed circuit board prices surge as 70% of global PPE resin supply is disrupted.
The impact of the Middle East conflict is spreading from the energy market to the electronics supply chain. CCTV Finance reporters learned that Saudi Arabia's Jubail industrial zone previously supplied approximately 70% of the world's PPE resin. However, as early as the end of March this year, due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, related factories had already ceased production. Resin is a crucial material for manufacturing printed circuit boards (PCBs), with PPE resin primarily used in high-end products. PCBs are essentially the "nervous system" of electronic devices. From smartphones and laptops to routers and AI servers, almost all modern electronic products rely on them. Experts say that if the resin supply disruption continues into this fall, consumers will feel the pressure of rising prices. A recent Goldman Sachs report showed that in April alone, PCB prices rose by as much as 40% compared to March. The stock price of US PCB manufacturer Schindler Technology has risen by over 400% in the past year. (CCTV Finance)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
