Crude oil trading alert: Shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz is under renewed pressure; the oversold rebound in oil prices does not change the downward trend.
2026-06-26 09:22:30
International crude oil markets continued their rebound in Asian trading on Friday, with WTI crude oil prices rising to around $71.50 per barrel , marking the second consecutive day of gains. The main driver of the price increase was renewed tensions in the Middle East, with market concerns about global energy transportation security escalating significantly, leading to a return of funds to energy assets with higher risk premiums, such as crude oil.
Latest reports indicate that a cargo ship has been suspected of being attacked in waters near Oman, leading the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to suspend its maritime security operations in the Strait of Hormuz. This development has raised market concerns that the previously easing regional tensions may deteriorate again, and has also impacted previous optimistic expectations regarding the de-escalation of the situation surrounding Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world's most important energy transportation routes, handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport . If shipping in this region is disrupted, the export efficiency of major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries could decline, and the stability of the global crude oil supply chain would be tested. Therefore, any event affecting the security of the Strait of Hormuz will be quickly reflected in international oil prices.
Two U.S. officials said Iran fired on a cargo ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating market tensions. Iran subsequently warned that the safety of vessels not following designated routes would not be guaranteed. This news further heightened market concerns about an escalation of regional conflict and prompted investors to reassess global energy supply risks.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded his Middle East visit. During his visit, Rubio told Gulf allies that if the US and Iran ultimately reach an agreement, regional security interests will be fully guaranteed, hoping to alleviate market uncertainty about the agreement's prospects. However, with the latest security incidents, the market has begun to worry that the initial consensus reached may face new challenges, and the risk premium in the international crude oil market has risen again.
From a market perspective, geopolitical risks have once again become a significant driver of current crude oil prices. Amid increased supply-side uncertainty, investors are paying closer attention to the future navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether exports from major oil-producing countries will be affected, and whether diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran can continue. If the regional situation escalates further, international oil prices may still receive support from risk premiums; if the situation stabilizes again, oil prices may return to being driven primarily by supply and demand fundamentals.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has rebounded for two consecutive trading days, with prices regaining their position above short-term moving averages, indicating a recovery in buying power. However, the price remains within its recent trading range, with bulls and bears still vying for direction. Short-term support has gradually formed around $71.00 . If prices can effectively break through and hold above $72.30 , they could potentially challenge the $73.50 to $74.00 area. Conversely, a break below $70.50 could lead to a retest of support around $69.50 . Market momentum has improved somewhat, but a clear medium- to long-term upward trend has not yet emerged.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, oil prices maintain a short-term upward-biased pattern, with the moving average system gradually diverging upwards and the MACD histogram continuing to expand, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has a certain advantage. However, as prices approach the previous resistance area, a technical pullback cannot be ruled out if trading volume fails to continue to increase. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the $72.30 level can be broken. A successful breakout could open up further upside potential; if resistance is encountered and prices fall back, the effectiveness of support levels around $71.00 and $70.50 should be monitored.
Editor's Summary : The Strait of Hormuz shipping safety incident once again highlights the significant impact of Middle East geopolitics on the international energy market. With the UN suspending related shipping safeguards operations, the market has re-priced in supply disruption risks, driving a continuous rebound in international oil prices. In the short term, geopolitics will continue to dominate crude oil price trends, with the status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran becoming the focus of market attention. If regional tensions escalate further, oil prices are likely to receive risk premium support; conversely, as the situation eases, market focus may return to fundamental factors such as global economic growth, changes in crude oil inventories, and monetary policies of major economies.
Latest reports indicate that a cargo ship has been suspected of being attacked in waters near Oman, leading the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to suspend its maritime security operations in the Strait of Hormuz. This development has raised market concerns that the previously easing regional tensions may deteriorate again, and has also impacted previous optimistic expectations regarding the de-escalation of the situation surrounding Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world's most important energy transportation routes, handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport . If shipping in this region is disrupted, the export efficiency of major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries could decline, and the stability of the global crude oil supply chain would be tested. Therefore, any event affecting the security of the Strait of Hormuz will be quickly reflected in international oil prices.
Two U.S. officials said Iran fired on a cargo ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating market tensions. Iran subsequently warned that the safety of vessels not following designated routes would not be guaranteed. This news further heightened market concerns about an escalation of regional conflict and prompted investors to reassess global energy supply risks.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded his Middle East visit. During his visit, Rubio told Gulf allies that if the US and Iran ultimately reach an agreement, regional security interests will be fully guaranteed, hoping to alleviate market uncertainty about the agreement's prospects. However, with the latest security incidents, the market has begun to worry that the initial consensus reached may face new challenges, and the risk premium in the international crude oil market has risen again.
From a market perspective, geopolitical risks have once again become a significant driver of current crude oil prices. Amid increased supply-side uncertainty, investors are paying closer attention to the future navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether exports from major oil-producing countries will be affected, and whether diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran can continue. If the regional situation escalates further, international oil prices may still receive support from risk premiums; if the situation stabilizes again, oil prices may return to being driven primarily by supply and demand fundamentals.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI crude oil has rebounded for two consecutive trading days, with prices regaining their position above short-term moving averages, indicating a recovery in buying power. However, the price remains within its recent trading range, with bulls and bears still vying for direction. Short-term support has gradually formed around $71.00 . If prices can effectively break through and hold above $72.30 , they could potentially challenge the $73.50 to $74.00 area. Conversely, a break below $70.50 could lead to a retest of support around $69.50 . Market momentum has improved somewhat, but a clear medium- to long-term upward trend has not yet emerged.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, oil prices maintain a short-term upward-biased pattern, with the moving average system gradually diverging upwards and the MACD histogram continuing to expand, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has a certain advantage. However, as prices approach the previous resistance area, a technical pullback cannot be ruled out if trading volume fails to continue to increase. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the $72.30 level can be broken. A successful breakout could open up further upside potential; if resistance is encountered and prices fall back, the effectiveness of support levels around $71.00 and $70.50 should be monitored.
Editor's Summary : The Strait of Hormuz shipping safety incident once again highlights the significant impact of Middle East geopolitics on the international energy market. With the UN suspending related shipping safeguards operations, the market has re-priced in supply disruption risks, driving a continuous rebound in international oil prices. In the short term, geopolitics will continue to dominate crude oil price trends, with the status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran becoming the focus of market attention. If regional tensions escalate further, oil prices are likely to receive risk premium support; conversely, as the situation eases, market focus may return to fundamental factors such as global economic growth, changes in crude oil inventories, and monetary policies of major economies.
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