Silver prices remained range-bound at low levels as tensions in the Middle East eased and inflation expectations fluctuated.
2026-06-29 15:12:12
Silver prices edged lower during Monday's Asian trading session, trading around $58.50 per ounce , giving back some of the gains from the previous two trading days. The current price action is primarily driven by both geopolitical risk sentiment and macroeconomic interest rate expectations, with the market entering a consolidation phase at higher levels.
From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of a temporary easing, with both sides agreeing to suspend military confrontation and planning to resume negotiations in Qatar. The conflict in the preceding days had driven up oil prices, which in turn affected the precious metals market through inflationary expectations. However, as the situation entered a negotiation window, safe-haven demand cooled in the short term, putting downward pressure on silver prices.
However, the market remains cautious about the stability of the situation. As a vital global energy transport route, the security of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts inflation expectations. If the conflict escalates again, oil prices could rise once more, potentially supporting precious metal prices through inflation and keeping silver highly volatile.
From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy remain a significant factor suppressing silver prices. The market currently prices in a probability of a Fed rate hike this year at nearly 59.7% , reflecting concerns about sticky inflation and a prolonged tightening cycle. This environment exerts sustained pressure on non-yielding assets, limiting the upside potential for silver.
Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the upcoming US non-farm payroll data. The market expects approximately 114,000 new jobs to be added in June, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.3% . This data will be a crucial indicator of the resilience of the US economy and the path of interest rates, and may directly influence the short-term price movement of silver.
Overall, silver is currently in a complex situation of "cooling safe-haven demand vs. inflation expectations and interest rate pressures coexisting," lacking a clear trend driver in the short term and exhibiting more of a high-level consolidation.
From a daily chart perspective, silver has entered a clear consolidation phase after its rapid rise, with prices fluctuating repeatedly around the $58 level. The overall trend remains bullish, but momentum has weakened. Key resistance lies in the $59.50-$60.20 area , a zone of dense trading volume from previous highs; a breakout would require new macroeconomic drivers.
On the downside support level, the first thing to watch is around $57.80 , which is a key support level for short-term pullbacks. If this level is broken, it may further test the $56.50-$55.80 range , which is the previous upward platform and has strong technical support significance.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver has entered a sideways consolidation phase after a continuous rise, with the moving average system gradually flattening out, indicating a significant slowdown in upward momentum. Momentum indicators are in neutral territory, suggesting a market equilibrium between bulls and bears. If the price can hold above $58, it is likely to maintain a slightly bullish consolidation structure; however, a break below $57.80 could trigger a short-term pullback.
Editor's Summary <br/>Overall, silver's current price movement is influenced by both the temporary easing of geopolitical risks and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, causing prices to fluctuate repeatedly within a high range. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation provides potential safe-haven support for silver, but the interest rate environment limits its upside potential. In the medium term, silver's price movement will continue to depend on inflation expectations and US economic data. Before the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation structure, awaiting new macroeconomic drivers to break the current equilibrium.
From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict between the United States and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of a temporary easing, with both sides agreeing to suspend military confrontation and planning to resume negotiations in Qatar. The conflict in the preceding days had driven up oil prices, which in turn affected the precious metals market through inflationary expectations. However, as the situation entered a negotiation window, safe-haven demand cooled in the short term, putting downward pressure on silver prices.
However, the market remains cautious about the stability of the situation. As a vital global energy transport route, the security of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts inflation expectations. If the conflict escalates again, oil prices could rise once more, potentially supporting precious metal prices through inflation and keeping silver highly volatile.
From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy remain a significant factor suppressing silver prices. The market currently prices in a probability of a Fed rate hike this year at nearly 59.7% , reflecting concerns about sticky inflation and a prolonged tightening cycle. This environment exerts sustained pressure on non-yielding assets, limiting the upside potential for silver.
Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the upcoming US non-farm payroll data. The market expects approximately 114,000 new jobs to be added in June, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.3% . This data will be a crucial indicator of the resilience of the US economy and the path of interest rates, and may directly influence the short-term price movement of silver.
Overall, silver is currently in a complex situation of "cooling safe-haven demand vs. inflation expectations and interest rate pressures coexisting," lacking a clear trend driver in the short term and exhibiting more of a high-level consolidation.
From a daily chart perspective, silver has entered a clear consolidation phase after its rapid rise, with prices fluctuating repeatedly around the $58 level. The overall trend remains bullish, but momentum has weakened. Key resistance lies in the $59.50-$60.20 area , a zone of dense trading volume from previous highs; a breakout would require new macroeconomic drivers.
On the downside support level, the first thing to watch is around $57.80 , which is a key support level for short-term pullbacks. If this level is broken, it may further test the $56.50-$55.80 range , which is the previous upward platform and has strong technical support significance.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, silver has entered a sideways consolidation phase after a continuous rise, with the moving average system gradually flattening out, indicating a significant slowdown in upward momentum. Momentum indicators are in neutral territory, suggesting a market equilibrium between bulls and bears. If the price can hold above $58, it is likely to maintain a slightly bullish consolidation structure; however, a break below $57.80 could trigger a short-term pullback.
Editor's Summary <br/>Overall, silver's current price movement is influenced by both the temporary easing of geopolitical risks and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, causing prices to fluctuate repeatedly within a high range. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation provides potential safe-haven support for silver, but the interest rate environment limits its upside potential. In the medium term, silver's price movement will continue to depend on inflation expectations and US economic data. Before the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market is likely to maintain a high-level consolidation structure, awaiting new macroeconomic drivers to break the current equilibrium.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
