Silver Market Outlook: Price Movements Depend on Warsh's Speech and Non-Farm Payroll Data
2026-06-29 17:53:48
On Monday (June 29), spot silver was trading at $57.993, down $0.778, or 1.32%. Spot silver closed last week at $58.585, down $6.033, or 9.31%, for the week.
In just five trading days, silver broke through three key support levels: the 52-week moving average, the recent low, and the 50% retracement level of the historical high.
This round of decline was not a slow, gradual drop, but rather a concentrated sell-off triggered by the hawkish signals released at Warsh's first FOMC meeting and the market's repricing of expectations for interest rate hikes.
This week coincides with a holiday, and two major events are being released in quick succession:
On Wednesday, Warsh will speak at the European Central Bank Forum, marking his first public appearance since becoming Federal Reserve Chairman.
The June non-farm payroll report, which is usually released on Friday, was moved up to Thursday morning. Major institutional trading teams have gradually reduced their positions in preparation for the long weekend.
Institutional funds largely withdrew from the market on Thursday afternoon and will not return until next Monday.
Warsh's speech will set the tone for market trading, and the non-farm payroll data released less than 24 hours later will either validate or overturn this trading logic.
Weekly analysis of spot silver
Last week, spot silver confirmed its downward trend, successively breaking through the 52-week moving average of $62.94, the recent low of $61.01, and the 50% retracement level of the historical high of $60.83.
The price fell to a low of $55.60, and there is room for further decline. The long-term Fibonacci target is $46.48, and the next key downside support is the October 2025 low of $45.55.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
If the price rises back above $60.83 (the 50% retracement level of the historical high), it will be the first signal of market stabilization and recovery; however, if the bulls want to attract large-scale buying, they must recover the 52-week moving average and establish a solid support zone there.
Long-term investors have abandoned speculating on short-term market trends and are now focusing on finding value entry points on dips.
Warsh gave a public speech on Wednesday, and the market is still speculating on his policy stance.
Walsh kept interest rates unchanged at his first policy meeting since taking office, but his tone triggered a sharp sell-off in the market.
With inflation consistently deviating from the 2% target for years, he emphasized at this meeting the need to bring inflation back to the target range; he refused to release his personal interest rate expectations dot plot; and he downplayed forward guidance policy—all these signals indicate that Warsh will not begin a rate-cutting cycle unless economic data forces the Fed to adjust its policy.
He also spearheaded the establishment of a special task force to reassess the Federal Reserve's communication mechanisms, balance sheet, economic data, labor productivity, and inflation analysis framework.
Following this press conference, the market significantly increased its forecast for an interest rate hike in the second half of 2026, causing silver to plummet by 8.77% in a single week.
Warsh's speech at the European Central Bank forum on Wednesday marked his first public appearance as chairman. More crucial than individual statements is the overall tone of his speech, and the market has already priced in a hawkish outlook.
If he continues the hawkish stance of the June policy meeting, the short positions that severely damaged silver last week will be held, awaiting Thursday's non-farm payroll data;
If he emphasizes policy data dependence, introduces the progress of the special task force, or uses more moderate language than in June, the market will adjust its trading positions in advance before the non-farm payroll data is released.
The threshold for a bullish rebound in silver prices has been significantly raised due to previous tough statements; Wednesday's speech will determine whether this threshold will change.
Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data will likely lead to continued selling pressure.
The market consensus is that non-farm payrolls will increase by about 114,000 in June, down from 172,000 in May.
The tone of Warsh's speech on Wednesday will directly determine how the market interprets Thursday's non-farm payroll data.
If Warsh releases hawkish signals and non-farm payrolls show a significant increase above 114,000, it will fully confirm the current market trading logic: with inflation still above target and the job market booming, the Fed has no reason to slow its tightening policy. Market expectations for interest rate hikes will surge, the dollar will strengthen, and US Treasury yields will rise.
Two negative factors simultaneously pressured silver prices:
On the one hand, the strengthening of the US dollar has increased the cost for buyers in non-US regions to purchase silver; on the other hand, yields have risen, with bonds and cash-like assets offering significantly better returns than precious metals, which do not offer interest income.
Last week, silver broke through all key support levels. If the non-farm payroll data further reinforces hawkish expectations, the sell-off will directly test the downside target given by the technical indicators.
Holiday liquidity will further amplify the downside risk: Trading will be thin on Thursday afternoon, and the volatility of the decline will be far greater than on a regular trading day. With the downtrend confirmed, market liquidity drying up, and the non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, holding long positions over the weekend will face extremely high risks.
The weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data has given bulls their first window for a counterattack.
If the number of new jobs added is far below 114,000, Warsh's hawkish policy logic established in June will lose its data support. The dollar will subsequently weaken, and silver prices have continued to move inversely to the dollar this month.
Silver previously fell 8.77% in a single week, mainly due to the continued rise in market expectations for interest rate hikes; if the non-farm payroll data is disappointing, the expectations for interest rate hikes will cool down quickly, which will be beneficial to silver.
Wednesday's dovish comments coupled with Thursday's weak non-farm payroll data would be the ideal combination for bulls. The market would interpret this as a synchronized shift in economic data and the Fed Chair's policy stance towards easing. Even if the Fed doesn't immediately cut rates, the weak employment data combined with dovish statements would quickly reduce the market's probability of a rate hike.
In the context of low liquidity during the holiday season, short positions are currently concentrated in the market. If the non-farm payroll data on Thursday morning is bearish for short positions, a large number of short sellers will liquidate their positions, which will quickly push up silver prices before the three-day holiday.
Non-farm payroll data met expectations; market movements were entirely driven by Warsh's speech.
If the number of new jobs is close to 114,000, the data will not provide a clear direction for the market, and Wednesday's speech will become the sole basis for trading decisions.
If Warsh maintains a hawkish stance at the ECB forum, silver will weaken under pressure; if his remarks lean towards caution and a wait-and-see approach, silver prices will remain volatile. Neutral non-farm payroll data will not change market expectations, and the positioning structure will completely reflect the state after Warsh's speech.
A lack of liquidity can cause markets without a clear direction to fluctuate widely. Investors need to control their positions based on market liquidity, rather than simply relying on market logic to place heavy bets. Next Monday, funds will flow back into the market, and the price movements observed in Thursday's low-liquidity environment will be retested by these funds.
Key areas of concern
Walsh will deliver a public speech on Wednesday, and the non-farm payroll data will be released on Thursday; the tone of his speech will determine the market's interpretation of the non-farm payroll data.
Warsh's hawkish stance coupled with strong non-farm payroll data: Silver sell-off continues;
Warsh's mild-mannered remarks, coupled with weak non-farm payroll data, present the bulls with their best chance to launch a counterattack in nearly a month.
Two major events occurred within 24 hours, and market funds continued to leave the market this week, resulting in low liquidity.
The current overall downward trend in silver is clear, and all key support levels above have now turned into resistance levels.
The non-farm payroll data must be significantly weaker to substantially reverse expectations of an interest rate hike; merely meeting market expectations will not be enough to drive a market reversal. Thursday morning's market volatility will be extremely high, and whether silver prices can hold their lows through the weekend or reverse course on Monday is impossible to predict before the non-farm payroll data is released.
In just five trading days, silver broke through three key support levels: the 52-week moving average, the recent low, and the 50% retracement level of the historical high.
This round of decline was not a slow, gradual drop, but rather a concentrated sell-off triggered by the hawkish signals released at Warsh's first FOMC meeting and the market's repricing of expectations for interest rate hikes.
This week coincides with a holiday, and two major events are being released in quick succession:
On Wednesday, Warsh will speak at the European Central Bank Forum, marking his first public appearance since becoming Federal Reserve Chairman.
The June non-farm payroll report, which is usually released on Friday, was moved up to Thursday morning. Major institutional trading teams have gradually reduced their positions in preparation for the long weekend.
Institutional funds largely withdrew from the market on Thursday afternoon and will not return until next Monday.
Warsh's speech will set the tone for market trading, and the non-farm payroll data released less than 24 hours later will either validate or overturn this trading logic.
Weekly analysis of spot silver
Last week, spot silver confirmed its downward trend, successively breaking through the 52-week moving average of $62.94, the recent low of $61.01, and the 50% retracement level of the historical high of $60.83.
The price fell to a low of $55.60, and there is room for further decline. The long-term Fibonacci target is $46.48, and the next key downside support is the October 2025 low of $45.55.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
If the price rises back above $60.83 (the 50% retracement level of the historical high), it will be the first signal of market stabilization and recovery; however, if the bulls want to attract large-scale buying, they must recover the 52-week moving average and establish a solid support zone there.
Long-term investors have abandoned speculating on short-term market trends and are now focusing on finding value entry points on dips.
Warsh gave a public speech on Wednesday, and the market is still speculating on his policy stance.
Walsh kept interest rates unchanged at his first policy meeting since taking office, but his tone triggered a sharp sell-off in the market.
With inflation consistently deviating from the 2% target for years, he emphasized at this meeting the need to bring inflation back to the target range; he refused to release his personal interest rate expectations dot plot; and he downplayed forward guidance policy—all these signals indicate that Warsh will not begin a rate-cutting cycle unless economic data forces the Fed to adjust its policy.
He also spearheaded the establishment of a special task force to reassess the Federal Reserve's communication mechanisms, balance sheet, economic data, labor productivity, and inflation analysis framework.
Following this press conference, the market significantly increased its forecast for an interest rate hike in the second half of 2026, causing silver to plummet by 8.77% in a single week.
Warsh's speech at the European Central Bank forum on Wednesday marked his first public appearance as chairman. More crucial than individual statements is the overall tone of his speech, and the market has already priced in a hawkish outlook.
If he continues the hawkish stance of the June policy meeting, the short positions that severely damaged silver last week will be held, awaiting Thursday's non-farm payroll data;
If he emphasizes policy data dependence, introduces the progress of the special task force, or uses more moderate language than in June, the market will adjust its trading positions in advance before the non-farm payroll data is released.
The threshold for a bullish rebound in silver prices has been significantly raised due to previous tough statements; Wednesday's speech will determine whether this threshold will change.
Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data will likely lead to continued selling pressure.
The market consensus is that non-farm payrolls will increase by about 114,000 in June, down from 172,000 in May.
The tone of Warsh's speech on Wednesday will directly determine how the market interprets Thursday's non-farm payroll data.
If Warsh releases hawkish signals and non-farm payrolls show a significant increase above 114,000, it will fully confirm the current market trading logic: with inflation still above target and the job market booming, the Fed has no reason to slow its tightening policy. Market expectations for interest rate hikes will surge, the dollar will strengthen, and US Treasury yields will rise.
Two negative factors simultaneously pressured silver prices:
On the one hand, the strengthening of the US dollar has increased the cost for buyers in non-US regions to purchase silver; on the other hand, yields have risen, with bonds and cash-like assets offering significantly better returns than precious metals, which do not offer interest income.
Last week, silver broke through all key support levels. If the non-farm payroll data further reinforces hawkish expectations, the sell-off will directly test the downside target given by the technical indicators.
Holiday liquidity will further amplify the downside risk: Trading will be thin on Thursday afternoon, and the volatility of the decline will be far greater than on a regular trading day. With the downtrend confirmed, market liquidity drying up, and the non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, holding long positions over the weekend will face extremely high risks.
The weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data has given bulls their first window for a counterattack.
If the number of new jobs added is far below 114,000, Warsh's hawkish policy logic established in June will lose its data support. The dollar will subsequently weaken, and silver prices have continued to move inversely to the dollar this month.
Silver previously fell 8.77% in a single week, mainly due to the continued rise in market expectations for interest rate hikes; if the non-farm payroll data is disappointing, the expectations for interest rate hikes will cool down quickly, which will be beneficial to silver.
Wednesday's dovish comments coupled with Thursday's weak non-farm payroll data would be the ideal combination for bulls. The market would interpret this as a synchronized shift in economic data and the Fed Chair's policy stance towards easing. Even if the Fed doesn't immediately cut rates, the weak employment data combined with dovish statements would quickly reduce the market's probability of a rate hike.
In the context of low liquidity during the holiday season, short positions are currently concentrated in the market. If the non-farm payroll data on Thursday morning is bearish for short positions, a large number of short sellers will liquidate their positions, which will quickly push up silver prices before the three-day holiday.
Non-farm payroll data met expectations; market movements were entirely driven by Warsh's speech.
If the number of new jobs is close to 114,000, the data will not provide a clear direction for the market, and Wednesday's speech will become the sole basis for trading decisions.
If Warsh maintains a hawkish stance at the ECB forum, silver will weaken under pressure; if his remarks lean towards caution and a wait-and-see approach, silver prices will remain volatile. Neutral non-farm payroll data will not change market expectations, and the positioning structure will completely reflect the state after Warsh's speech.
A lack of liquidity can cause markets without a clear direction to fluctuate widely. Investors need to control their positions based on market liquidity, rather than simply relying on market logic to place heavy bets. Next Monday, funds will flow back into the market, and the price movements observed in Thursday's low-liquidity environment will be retested by these funds.
Key areas of concern
Walsh will deliver a public speech on Wednesday, and the non-farm payroll data will be released on Thursday; the tone of his speech will determine the market's interpretation of the non-farm payroll data.
Warsh's hawkish stance coupled with strong non-farm payroll data: Silver sell-off continues;
Warsh's mild-mannered remarks, coupled with weak non-farm payroll data, present the bulls with their best chance to launch a counterattack in nearly a month.
Two major events occurred within 24 hours, and market funds continued to leave the market this week, resulting in low liquidity.
The current overall downward trend in silver is clear, and all key support levels above have now turned into resistance levels.
The non-farm payroll data must be significantly weaker to substantially reverse expectations of an interest rate hike; merely meeting market expectations will not be enough to drive a market reversal. Thursday morning's market volatility will be extremely high, and whether silver prices can hold their lows through the weekend or reverse course on Monday is impossible to predict before the non-farm payroll data is released.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
