July 7th Financial Breakfast: A stronger dollar drags down gold prices; Saudi Arabia significantly lowers official selling prices; oil prices fall back to pre-war levels before the Iran war.
2026-07-07 07:30:56

Key Focus Today

stock market
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.72% to 7,537.43, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.12% to 26,121.16, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.29% to 53,055.91, driven primarily by a surge in chip stocks such as Broadcom.
Broadcom's stock price surged 3.7% after it extended its custom chip supply agreement with Apple until 2031, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.2% and the S&P Information Technology Sector up 1.3%. The CEO of Longbow Asset Management pointed out that the market rally is highly concentrated in technology and semiconductor stocks; those not holding these sectors have essentially missed out on the rally, and the gains are fragile, facing the risk that the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates.
Microsoft shares fell nearly 1% after announcing layoffs of approximately 4,800 employees (2.1% of its workforce). On the economic front, the June ISM non-manufacturing PMI slightly declined to 54.0, in line with expectations. SpaceX's trading volume exceeded $26 billion, with most transactions completed in the final seconds before the market closed; the stock will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday.
Despite a year-to-date gain of about 10%, the S&P 500 is still about 1% below its record closing high on June 2. The market is focused on the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with analysts expecting overall earnings for S&P 500 companies to grow by 24% year-over-year, and earnings for the technology sector to jump by about 65%. Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are scheduled to report earnings later this week.
Regarding interest rates, after last week's weaker-than-expected jobs report, traders believe there is a 25% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting. Fed Governor Waller stated that forward guidance is a "valuable tool" when appropriate, but it should not be used too rigidly. The minutes of last month's Fed meeting, chaired by new Chairman Warsh, will be released on Wednesday.
Gold Market
Gold prices fell 0.24% on Monday, with spot gold at $41,634.75 per ounce, retreating from a two-week high, mainly dragged down by a stronger dollar, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

However, the significant slowdown in U.S. job growth in June and the downward revision of data for the previous two months prompted the market to lower its expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, thus limiting the decline in gold prices.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting on Wednesday. Jim Wickoff, a market analyst at the U.S. Gold Exchange, said traders will scrutinize the minutes for further clues about the direction of monetary policy, as any unexpected signals could trigger market volatility.
The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market currently estimates a 57% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. JPMorgan Chase noted in a report that gold demand from key sectors will not be as strong as the bank previously anticipated, which will limit gold price gains this year. However, the bank still expects gold prices to rise to $4,300 in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth quarter.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.54% to $62.01, after hitting its highest level since June 23 during the session; platinum fell 0.4% to $1,630.86, and palladium rose slightly by 0.1% to $1,275.43 per ounce.
oil market
Oil prices fell back to pre-war levels on Monday, with Brent crude closing at $71.95 a barrel and WTI crude at $68.60, both down about 0.2%. This was mainly due to Saudi Arabia's significant reduction in official selling prices – setting the price of its flagship Arab Light crude for August sales to Asia at $1.50 per barrel lower than the Oman/Dubai average, marking the largest monthly drop since records began in 2003. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to further increase its production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August (after similar increases in June and July), and crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz further resumed as previously stranded tankers successfully left the Gulf region, increasing the volume of seaborne crude oil and continuing to put downward pressure on prices.

The head of energy futures at Mizuho Securities said there are increasing signs that Gulf oil-producing countries are preparing for a price war. The UAE’s crude oil production in June has increased to over 3.8 million barrels per day, close to a record high, after it left OPEC. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is also selling crude oil at a discount through tenders.
However, PVM analysts pointed out that due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the war with Iran, exports from major OPEC oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq have been restricted, and most of their production increase plans remain on paper. In a falling market, there is no hope for a significant rebound in selling more crude oil in the short term, and lower oil prices will eventually stimulate demand.
Geopolitically, US President Trump stated that the US must either reach an agreement with Iran or "finish the job." Although a 60-day ceasefire agreement was reached between the US and Iran, the indirect negotiations that ended last week showed no public progress towards lasting peace. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military claimed to have attacked Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk, as well as facilities in the Yaroslavl and Leningrad regions overnight. Data from the US Department of Energy showed that US strategic petroleum reserves decreased by 6.2 million barrels to 319.5 million barrels in the week ending July 3, the lowest level since April 1983.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar stabilized on Monday, with the dollar index closing at 100.87. It had touched a 13-month high last week but retreated after the US June non-farm payrolls report showed a sharp slowdown in job growth (only 57,000 jobs were added, far below expectations), which subsequently dampened market expectations for a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting.

Investors are currently focused on the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting on Wednesday for clues about the interest rate outlook. New Fed Chairman Warsh stated last week that he would firmly maintain the 2% inflation target and that those expecting easing policies would be "disappointed." However, City Index strategists point out that it remains to be seen whether other Fed officials agree, particularly whether Governor Waller will release another clear signal.
The yen continued to hover near 40-year lows, trading at around 162.07 yen to the dollar, slightly above the 162.84 low reached last week, its lowest level since 1986. Traders remained wary of potential official intervention by Japanese authorities, but analysts doubted whether such measures could provide lasting support. OCBC Bank FX strategists said the market was still grappling with the risk of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve weighing on the yen, while intervention concerns limited further weakness.
The head of Asia investment strategy at LL&G Asset Management expects Japan to intervene if yen volatility intensifies, but the long-term trend of the exchange rate depends on Japan's loose fiscal policy and the large interest rate differential with the United States, and intervention will not change this trend.
In other currencies, the euro rose slightly by 0.04% against the dollar to 1.1440, not far from its two-week high.
International News
Trump claims the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved "much faster than people think."
US President Trump stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved "much faster than people think." Trump said Russian President Putin wants to end the conflict, and his desire is "very strong." Ukrainian President Zelenskyy "actually wants to end this conflict now." "We will discuss this during the NATO summit. I think we will end it (the Russia-Ukraine conflict)." (Xinhua)
The United States has issued an "energy emergency alert" due to persistent high temperatures.
Last weekend, a widespread heatwave swept across the United States, causing power outages for nearly one million homes and businesses. Data from a US real-time power outage monitoring platform showed that as of approximately 10 p.m. Eastern Time on July 5th, about 704,000 customers nationwide were without power, with the most severe outages concentrated in the northeastern United States. Earlier on Independence Day (July 4th), the total number of customers without power had exceeded 950,000. The power outages caused traffic lights to malfunction and shops to close in some areas. The combination of high temperatures and power outages caused considerable hardship for local residents. (CCTV News)
Microsoft announced it will lay off 4,800 employees.
Microsoft announced on June 6th that it will lay off 4,800 employees, approximately 2.1% of its global workforce, including 1,600 employees in its Xbox console division. Microsoft stated that this move is aimed at cost reduction and is part of a large-scale restructuring plan, with more layoffs expected this year. The plan focuses on the underperforming Xbox console division. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma stated that the division's profit margin is currently significantly lower than its peers. The industry in which Xbox operates is facing a severe "hardware crisis" due to the skyrocketing cost of console components. (CCTV News)
Bessant: 6 million American children have opened Trump-specific accounts
Before President Trump rang the opening bell, Treasury Secretary Bessant briefed the public on the current progress of the program. He stated that 86% of the 6 million children who opened accounts came from families with an annual income of less than $200,000. Under the program, parents can open a special investment account for their children born during Trump's second term, with the government automatically depositing $1,000 in start-up capital. Older minors, as long as they are under 18 years old by the end of the year, can also open such an account but will not be eligible for the $1,000 grant. The account is scheduled to officially open for deposits on July 4th, and the Treasury Department plans to disburse the $1,000 grant on that day.
Russia says contacts between Russian and US presidents will continue.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and peace talks, Russia stated that it remains open to negotiations and looks forward to US mediation. Ukraine called on the US and Europe to strengthen their air defense support. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated on the 6th that both President Putin and US President Trump believe that contacts between the two sides will continue in the near future. He said that Trump's position on Ukraine is consistent and stable, and he is willing to listen to Putin's message. (CCTV News)
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July is 25.7%, and the probability of a rate hike this year is 75.4%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 25.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 10.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 24.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 42.5%, and the probability of at least a 50 basis point rate hike is 32.9%.
Global central banks net bought 41 tons of gold in May, with Poland and China leading the gold-buying spree.
Marissa Salim, Senior Research Director for Asia Pacific at the World Gold Council, stated that global central banks significantly increased their gold purchases in May, with official gold reserves rising by a net 41 tons that month. This was the second-highest monthly increase this year, continuing the strong demand for gold assets from official sectors. Among the major buyers, the Polish central bank led the month with an increase of 18 tons, followed closely by the People's Bank of China with an increase of 10 tons. Together, these two banks contributed nearly 70% of the net increase for the month, highlighting the strategic considerations of emerging markets and Eastern European countries regarding the diversification of their reserve assets against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical risks. The overall increase in central bank gold purchases in May, in contrast to the moderate pace of increases in previous months, reflects that as global trade uncertainty continues to spread due to Trump's tariff rhetoric, official institutions are increasingly viewing gold as a ballast against external shocks.
Domestic News
Memory prices have been rising steadily, and hard drive prices have followed suit.
In Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, known as "China's No. 1 Electronics Street," gaming enthusiast Xu Shaoan recently planned to upgrade his computer to play a AAA game. He discovered that a 32GB DDR5 memory kit had risen to nearly 4,000 yuan, three to four times more expensive than last year. Therefore, he decided to downgrade to a 24GB configuration and upgrade later when prices drop. An investigation revealed that in addition to soaring memory prices, hard drive prices have also risen sharply. For example, a 1TB solid-state drive now costs over 900 yuan. Many computer assemblers stated that the high prices of components and complete systems are causing many customers to wait and see. Statistics show that compared to last year, the prices of mainstream storage products have increased by more than 100%. Among them: a 1TB solid-state drive cost 410 yuan last year, now costs 950 yuan, an increase of 132%; 16GB DDR5 memory cost 450 yuan last year, now costs 1800 yuan, an increase of 300%; 32GB DDR5 memory cost 900 yuan last year, now costs 3800 yuan, an increase of 322%. (CCTV Finance)
Hong Kong Stock Exchange's USD gold futures trading volume hit a record high
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) announced that a record 6,676 contracts were traded during the daytime trading session for US dollar gold futures, surpassing the previous record of 3,039 contracts traded on November 7, 2022. The bid-ask spread for active month contracts narrowed to one to two ticks, with the August contract as low as US$0.01 (one tick) and the December contract as low as two ticks. HKEX's continued efforts to optimize US dollar gold futures contracts have attracted active participation from various market participants, including banks, securities firms, high-frequency trading institutions, traders, gold producers, and consumer companies. This is an important step in HKEX's strategy to improve its gold product portfolio and deepen its diversified asset ecosystem, further supporting Hong Kong's development into a leading international gold trading and storage center. (HKEX)
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